Employment thoughts

At the moment, we seem to have very high employment which some are blaming as one cause of inflation. So few are unemployed that employers are having to raise wages to attract employees. I’ve seen numbers floating around that suggest there are more job openings available than unemployed people to fill them. But I wonder if that is the full picture.

You’ll recall that a year or two ago, people were leaving the workforce in droves, whether by choice or by force. And a significant number of those people stopped looking for work, which changes their status in official statistics on employment. They move from unemployed to no longer looking for work. That lowers the official unemployment rate.

So what happened to those people? I’m sure there are a number of different outcomes. Some older workers likely retired. Younger workers might have decided to have one parent stay home with children and save on the cost of child care. A similar thing might have happened to empty nesters, but in the opposite direction. They might have chosen to stay home and care for elderly parents rather than spend the parent’s resources on paid caregiving.

What has become of those workers still able to work who are currently out of the work force? Might not they be induced back into the work force by good paying jobs? I think so.

Early in the pandemic, many claimed that official counts of unemployed were fudged on the low side by employees leaving the workforce. That was those discouraged workers - people who want to work but simply gave up for lack of jobs. Those workers might be coming back into the work force, moving straight from the ranks of not looking for work to employed. How many of those folks are out there? They might still be keeping the official unemployed worker count artificially low.

–Peter

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So what happened to those people? I’m sure there are a number of different outcomes. Some older workers likely retired. Younger workers might have decided to have one parent stay home with children and save on the cost of child care. A similar thing might have happened to empty nesters, but in the opposite direction. They might have chosen to stay home and care for elderly parents rather than spend the parent’s resources on paid caregiving.

The fact that employers are hiring means that there is demand for goods and services.

You’d have more women in the workforce providing more goods and services if there was affordable childcare and elder care.

There’s a lack of products and services for sale. That’s what’s causing inflation. Jacking interest rates doesn’t put more women to work.

No one ever lost money betting on the ignorance and innumeracy of the American people and their leaders.

intercst

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The US is in the process of building many new manufacturing facilities due the supply chain realities. But these new facilities will require many less workers due to the advancement of AI & robotic automation. Those entities are attractive to JCs as they can work 24/7 without complaint & require no health care benefits.
Perhaps we will soon reach a stage of a big surplus of working age people. Raising the question what to do with them? What will happen to mandatory entitlement programs as tax inflows diminish?
Will illegal immigration cease to be an issue once influx of undocumented workers cease as jobs requiring a human diminish?

At age 71, i’m pretty much just a bystander. When I first started work it was not uncommon for a worker to remain with a single employer. Now workers jump from job to job. The pace of life is almost frenetic and increasing in speed. Human will never be able to compete with advanced AI/robotic automation. And maybe it’s just as well as anthropologist David Graeter postulates the existence of meaningless jobs and analyzes their societal harm. He contends that over half of societal work is pointless, and becomes psychologically destructive when paired with a work ethic that associates work with self-worth.
He argues that the association of labor with virtuous suffering is recent in human history, and proposes unions and universal basic income as a potential solution.

Now, that ain’t workin’, that’s the way you do it
You play the guitar on the MTV
That ain’t workin’, that’s the way you do it
Money for nothin’ and your chicks for free

What will happen once folks can’t work & are on basic income no longer sit in judgement of those on food stamps & welfare. Heads will explode! Protestant work ethnic now in the dust bin of history. Horrors! LOL

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The good part is by giving blanket, long term assistance with no strings attached, no back to work retirement (as some had suggested we do…)…people at home for 2 whole years, certainly kept their work skills tuned in this fast changing world - hey, they only missed 2 years.

Furthermore, there were bumper sticker slogans, with arbitrary amounts being bandied about for entry level work, but it was never allowed - a conversation on why so many had to use entry level work not for entering the workforce - – – but as livelihoods.

So… in due time as businesses automate such positions - many in society won’t get an entrance into the workforce merely to learn the rhythm of work, or gain work habits.

Today? These are the good ol days. Who would’ve thought that one day, old and gray - people will be saying “remember the good ol days of the 2020s? Why can’t we have it that good again”.

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They might still be keeping the official unemployed worker count artificially low.

Although, one has no way of deciding that a person currently not looking for work might look for work in the future. If they are not currently looking for work, for present numbers, they are not looking for work. To be sure, changes in the future such as higher wages or better child care could cause them to look for work in the future, but we can’t know that now.

You’d have more women in the workforce providing more goods and services if there was affordable childcare and elder care.

While true, is there significantly less childcare available now than, say, five years ago?

DB2

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DrBob2 asks,

<<You’d have more women in the workforce providing more goods and services if there was affordable childcare and elder care.>>

While true, is there significantly less childcare available now than, say, five years ago?

Yes. Childcare tends to be low-wage work, and fewer Americans are willing to accept poverty wage employment. What childcare remains is priced well-above what’s reasonable for a middle-class worker.

https://tootris.com/edu/blog/parents/the-high-cost-of-child-…

How Does Washington State Compare Against the 10 states with the Highest Child Care, preschool, infant care, and day care annual costs:

Massachusetts ($20,913)
California ($16,945)
Minnesota ($16,087)
Connecticut ($15,591)
New York ($15,394)
Maryland ($15,335)
Colorado ($15,325)
Washington ($14,554)
Virginia ($14,063)
Illinois ($13,802)

I note that in-state tuition at Washington State’s flagship Univ. of Washington campus in Seattle is $12,076/yr.

intercst

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tjscott0 asks,

What will happen once folks can’t work & are on basic income no longer sit in judgement of those on food stamps & welfare. Heads will explode! Protestant work ethnic now in the dust bin of history. Horrors! LOL

Most people will still “work” in pursuit of their interests and passions. They just won’t be completely impoverished if what they’re interested in doesn’t pay much.

And you’ll still have people willing to work a shift at Burger King to fund the payments on a nicer car or better apartment.

It’s not like free healthcare and universal basic income is going to have everyone sleeping in the park, stoned.

intercst

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The fact that employers are hiring means that there is demand for goods and services.

Agreed.

You’d have more women in the workforce providing more goods and services if there was affordable childcare and elder care.

Yes. Men, too. Mr. Mom isn’t just a funny movie any more. There are plenty of couples where the woman works and the man takes care of the kids and the household.

There’s a lack of products and services for sale. That’s what’s causing inflation.

Agreed.

Jacking interest rates doesn’t put more women to work.

Right. But it does put a bit of a damper on demand. And that helps keep inflation from running away while Congress gets their act together to take more concrete action on the supply side. But that’s the thread on Reich’s comments about the Fed being the wrong tool for this job.

My point here is that I think the unemployment rate is artificially low by the number of people who have not been looking for work recently but are beginning to look again now that wages are rising.

–Peter

Although, one has no way of deciding that a person currently not looking for work might look for work in the future.

I’m talking about right now.

When people who were employed become unemployed, we can track that via unemployment benefits. When people who are on unemployment stop looking for work, we can track that via the cessation of unemployment benefits.

But how do we track the longer term unemployed - who are no longer counted in the workforce - who then begin looking for work? Theoretically, they should once again be counted as part of the workforce but currently unemployed. But I don’t know any systemic way those figures are counted or estimated. As it is, we count them only when they become employed.

And that makes the current unemployment rate as reported somewhat lower than the actual unemployment rate.

–Peter

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Perhaps we will soon reach a stage of a big surplus of working age people.

It used to be that about 90% of the population was employed in food production. Now it’s well under 10%. So many unemployed people…

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<But how do we track the longer term unemployed - who are no longer counted in the workforce - who then begin looking for work? Theoretically, they should once again be counted as part of the workforce but currently unemployed. But I don’t know any systemic way those figures are counted or estimated. As it is, we count them only when they become employed. >

See my latest Control Panel for this information. And the Federal Reserve (FRED) has much more granular data to answer your questions.

Wendy

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Also look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics for Data, in addition to FRED.
Wendy

But how do we track the longer term unemployed - who are no longer counted in the workforce - who then begin looking for work? Theoretically, they should once again be counted as part of the workforce but currently unemployed. But I don’t know any systemic way those figures are counted or estimated. As it is, we count them only when they become employed.

BLS does a big survey every month. If you have looked for work in the survey period but haven’t found it, you are counted as unemployed.

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“You’d have more women in the workforce providing more goods and services if there was affordable childcare and elder care.”

Define ‘affordable’.

Then decide if that is all you think care of your child (or elder) is worth.

It’s not like free healthcare and universal basic income is going to have everyone sleeping in the park, stoned.

intercst

Not everyone. But you might be surprised at the number of people that would be willing to live in a section 8* apartment toking their life away.

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_8_(housing)

Not everyone. But you might be surprised at the number of people that would be willing to live in a section 8* apartment toking their life away.

I bet may employers would fund the “toking your life away in a Section 8 apartment” rather than having the same individuals clogging things up at their shop in a Gov’t funded WPA program.

https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/works-progre…

intercst

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So what happened to those people?

They got so much Giverment money they don’t have to work anymore?

The Captain

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But how do we track the longer term unemployed - who are no longer counted in the workforce - who then begin looking for work? Theoretically, they should once again be counted as part of the workforce but currently unemployed.

This is the part I disagree with. Until they actively raise their hand and say “I am looking for work” they are not looking for work.

Some visibility into these people is given by the labor force participation rate, i.e., if the rate is lower, that means that there are more people who might look for work in the future if circumstances were better.

Define ‘affordable’.

Then decide if that is all you think care of your child (or elder) is worth.

It has nothing to do with the worth of the person in care and everything to do with whether or not one can afford to pay that much. In particular, if the cost of the care will exceed the revenue from working, it is not very affordable.