Wondering if anyone has interest still in ESTC. I picked up a starter position in it last week in the high $58’s. They got 2 up grades today ( RBC and Barclays) Based on comparisons with MDB metrics it seems like a 70-80 dollar stock. RBC views ESTC’s TAM at 45B in 2018 up from 3B in 2012 compound annual growth rate of 57%). ESTC has more than 5500 customers with a net expansion of 130% or more for 7 straight Qs including a 142% rate in Q1 2019. YOY subscription growth of 87% in 2018. Barclays also mentions a 45B TAM and says ESTC has the highest growth in their coverage.
I’m very interested but waiting to see their first public earnings report and the stock’s reaction. I’m hoping it tanks afterwards (which is possible in this environment regardless of the numbers) to provide a good price to get in. Very unique company.
I have a position in ESTC but their TAM growth may be misleading since they changed the metrics and the markets to get that number and I am not sure how much of that TAM really applies to what they are doing today.
Still from what I am reading they have little competition and considered the best in their space. They do have some impressive customers in Uber and tinder. I think as they get away from basic search to big data analytics is where they are getting the bulk of the $45 billion DTAM but also run into stiffer competition.