I was curious if we are discounting Etsy too much and wanted to get feedback on the calculations I’m making based on ex-Mask GMS/revenue.
So below are a bunch of tables with actual GMS/Revenue/Mask as % of GMS/Take Rate and guided numbers in bold.
I removed mask GMS fully from total GMS by multiplying total GMS by (1-Mask %), i.e. (1-14.1% = 85.9% of total GMS and then did YoY growth comparisons to get GMS ex-mask.
I then used actual % take rate to calculate revenue using the discounted ex-mask GMS and then did a YoY growth comparison.
So doing this exercise, while in aggregate, Etsy’s revenue has slowed from 141 to 25% based on their guidance. If you were to adjust all the figures to ex-mask, actual marketplace revenue is actually growing at 46% which seems incredibly solid for a growth company that is coming to face some really tough comparisons. If you assume guidance is a “sandbag” then revenue ex-mask is likely closer to 50%.
Am I looking at this correctly? I feel like this is the appropriate way to gauge the actual “organic” growth of the marketplace vs. a few quarters of revenue being juiced due to mask revenue.
Finally, it seems Wall Street perhaps is coming to its senses based on Etsy’s projected growth rate and their recent acquisitions to further enhance their marketplace model.
GMS
1024 1095 1200 1656
1353 2689 2634 3605
3143 **3100**
% GMS Growth
32 146 119 118
132 **15**
Revenue
169 181 198 270
228 429 452 617
551 **536**
% Revenue Growth
35 137 128 129
141 **25**
Masks % of total GMS
0 14.1 10.9 3.9
2.5
Take Rate
16.9 15.9 17.1 17.1
17.5
Adjusted GMS ex-Mask
1353 2310 2347 3465
3065 **3100**
% Adj. GMS Growth ex-Mask
32 111 96 109
127 **34**
Adjusted Revenue ex-Mask
228 368 401 592
537 **536**
% Adj. Revenue Growth ex-Mask
35 103 103 119
135 **46**