Saunafool said
First, ICE cars will still be allowed on the roads and can be sold all the way up to 2034. There is nothing in the law saying that someone can’t drive a small affordable ICE vehicle for 20 years after 2035. So, your first conclusion that “there will be insufficient cars” is just flat out wrong.
You are correct ICE cars will still be available.
Rather I am guilty of imprecise language. I should have said “There will be insufficient EV cars for everyone who currently has a ICE car to have one”
By 2035, EVs are likely to be the cheaper option. If all automakers start building EVs at scale, prices will likely decrease further.
As I have posted previously, there are insufficient mines in the world to produce the quantity of raw materials necessary to produce sufficient EV cars to replace ICE cars.
If you go to this link here you will see a view of projected increase in raw materials needed to meet projected EV demand.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/electric-vehicles-drive-up-…
As you can see there is a 10 fold increase needed in many raw materials needed. I can guarantee to you all there is not a 10 fold increase in copper of nickel mines planned at the moment. Nor will there be extra mines in operation to meet those quantities by 2030.
Don’t get hung up on the amount of raw material increase needed whether its 5, 10, or 14 fold there are a lot of numbers floating around but the direction is all the same. From all sources, mining companies and investment bank research.
So EV proponents must accept unless there is a material to decrease EV car material needed there will not be a 1:1 replacement.
Moreover if EV change is mandated you must accept the era of personal transport is over for the overwhelming majority of people.
This view is starting to seep into the public conciseness. in fact an excerpt from the front page of a national newspaper today.
Hopeful forecasts that show EV prices forever falling typically ignore the economic impact of the truly massive increase in demand for critical minerals – often concentrated in China, Russia and Africa, not the most stable locations – that EV batteries require. No number of laws, treaties or communiques will alter that fact.
An interesting fact, the Democratic Republic of Congo has the largest proven cobalt reserves and China owns 15 of the 19 mines.