EV and the future of oil

With latest battery technologies, EV single charge range is approaching 600-700 miles. It’s also very easy to setup an EV charge station by businesses and residential homes in rural areas. Here is an existing charge station map in the US: https://www.plugshare.com/

Is the future of oil doom in a decade or two?

Here is the news about latest battery technology:

Is the future of oil doom in a decade or two?


There’s more uses in the world for O&G than light vehicles.

Somewhat out of frustration, I think, XOM said in an Analyst Day a few years ago that if every light vehicle in the world were an EV, oil demand in 2040 would still be at 2013 levels. That doesn’t include natural gas liquids.

They just updated their Energy Outlook to 2050. Expressed in quadrillion BTU’s, anticipated 2050 liquids demand (oil and condensates) will be 208 compared with 185 in 2019 in the base case.

This Energy Outlook is not a PR document. It is XOM’s planning base for both investments and R&D among other uses. Such long range outlooks are necessary when you’re developing and implementing multi-billion dollar investments to supply the energy the world will need in the future.

Buried within that limited growth is the need for hundreds of billions of new investment to offset the decline of existing fields. Don’t be concerned about investment opportunities for O&G companies. Instead be concerned if they aren’t making them - as is now being demonstrated. XOM kept investing during the price war and pandemic - most didn’t. Demand exceeding supply isn’t fun for the world.

OECD demand for energy is estimated at 194 in 2050 compared with 221 for 2019 - so efficiencies are built in to offset future economic growth. But non-OECD demand is estimated at 464 10 2050 compared with 355 in 2019. China and India generate about half the growth. Non-OECD countries want better living standards and that requires energy. Actions speak louder than words about which will receive priority in the next couple of decades.

Biomass/waste, hydro, geothermal, wind, solar, and biofuels are estimated at 144 in 2050 compared with 81 in 2019. Most of the growth is in wind and solar. But renewables can’t supply the future energy needs. The combined total share of energy from this group is 22% in 2050 compared with 15% in 2019.

Other major organizations have their own projections depending upon what assumptions they make about what actions governments will take and citizens will tolerate and fund. XOM also has contingency cases up and down. They test all investments against the more severe cases. But these projections reflect their judgment about what will really happen on a conservative basis as a base case.

I can tell you that they also have very qualified people keeping track of any technology advances that will impact these outlooks.

What most folks don’t grasp is how long these take to implement.


The claimed watt hours per kg of that battery is good, but not revolutionary. It isn’t much better than the battery on my e-bike. The extra range is from using a really big battery. Until an entirely different system is developed, they are up against chemical constants. I don’t know how much battery weight is practical in a car, but I don’t see any of the current drawbacks vanishing soon.