Everyone is doing it

Remember a year or so ago when we were saying that when all our neighbors started buying stocks that the end was near? Well, over the last month or so everyone at work has started brokerage accounts and has begun trading stock tips. At first I thought, cool…more people to discuss stocks with. But then my subconscious brought our discuss percolating up to my consciousness and now the worry has begun.



Yep - euphoria may be picking up. What are your uber and Lyft drivers telling you Ethan? When taxi drivers start discussing stock picks, and unicorn IPOs that usually is the bell tolling for the top of the market. Unless they are too distracted with bitcoin mining or something this time around.


I think it was Peter Lynch that said when people started trying to give him stock tips at parties, that he knew the market was getting frothy

Peter Lynch had long story about cocktail party conversations, how people react to him when he says he is a stock broker. Indeed, when people started to give him stock tips it was likely to be near a top.

Denny Schlesinger

More than one major value-oriented hedge fund guy (e.g. Seth Klarman) has returned money to investors, saying they don’t have enough places to invest it these days.

I can say this safely - we are closer to the top than we were at this time last year. :slight_smile:

But I don’t see the kind of ridiculous valuations now that occurred in the late 1990’s. For instance, after all these years, Cisco’s share price has never come close again to its price in 2000.

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