A plane has a pilot - usually two - who has a steering wheel and a throttle.
Let me know when people are willing to be transported in a plane with not only no pilot but no way to take control of the plane.
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That is pretty much how it is done today. You get into a jet and the captain is locked behind a door. He let’s the plane fly itself when in the air and nobody complains.
Andy
And the other half is Android, from which you can pick multiple models from Samsung, Motorola, Google, Asus, OnePlus, Nothing, Keocera, Galaxy, HTC, Honor, and, well, here’s a list. There are probably 50 or so you can buy today. Weird, huh?
So, you were saying about how there are fewer model options?
(I’m not sure “phones” is a very good comparator anyway; those are almost 100% computer, a car is primarily for transportation, not computing.)
That must be why software enabled refrigerators only come from one manufacturer in one size. Oh wait. Maybe I was thinking of washing machines? Or TV sets? Dishwashers? Microwave ovens? No, the reality is that people choose form so long as the software is capable. That will not change with cars.
That’s what Henry Ford thought, too, right up until his market share cratered after Chevrolet, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Chrysler, Packard, Studebaker, Overland, Maxwell and others started eating his lunch because people wanted choice . Weird, huh?
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So what? A free market should create lots of competitors. The question is how many models do each of those companies make? Mostly <10. That’s the business model that works with computer-driven products, relatively few hardware variations with most of the differentiation defined by software. That is very similar to how Tesla sells its EVs and very different from how car OEMs have sold their ICEs.
What Apple and Tesla are demonstrating is that for products dependent on software, it is best to reduce the hardware options and focus on software quality. This combination reduces production costs and improves margins.
The Toyota, GM, and the VW group business model of producing lots of physical models at razor-thin margins is a dinosaur in the coming world of software-defined electric vehicles. It is much more efficient and cost-effective to let the software add functionality whenever possible.
Software only adds marginal increased functionality to a refrigerator or dishwasher. In my experience, a “smart” washer is not much different than a dumb one. This contrasts with vehicles that are using computers to do more and more of the driving. As we approach full self-driving, whatever car has the most consistent and safest self-driving software is the one most people will buy. The variety of models offered by competitors won’t matter if their software is not competitive. Few buy washers because of the software. Most will soon be buying cars based on the quality of the software.
Tesla is betting that their data-driven machine learning approach based on info transmitted by their millions of sold vehicles and processed by what may soon be the most powerful supercomputer around is the best way to achieve safe self-driving. If Tesla is correct (an admittedly big if), then they have an enormous head start and a substantial moat against competition. If Tesla is correct they will sell as many cars as they can build for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. electric vehicle market is growing, but not fast enough during the latest quarter to prevent unsold EVs from stacking up at some automakers’ dealerships or to allow Tesla to avoid new price cuts.
And in the UK…
More electric vehicles are being made by manufacturers than drivers want, one of Britain’s biggest car dealerships has said.
Vertu Motors, which trades under brands including Bristol Street Motors, said supply of new and used electric models is outstripping demand, forcing manufacturers to slash prices in an effort to shift stock.
DB2
Oh, I don’t know if it’s a “constant drumbeat.” It’s just one of the more interesting implications of Tesla’s sales projections. They’re implicitly assuming that we’ll see a level of consolidation in the auto market that we haven’t seen for nearly a century.
This obviously hasn’t been a factor for Tesla to date - because up until now, they’ve been selling volumes that are well within what we’ve seen in the past. Even this year, when Model Y will (probably) be the best-selling car in the world, they’ll (probably) have moved around 1.2 million units of that single model. That’s amazing, but still within the 1.4 - 1.5 million Corollas that Toyota’s sold in in their peak years.
But it’s next year that Tesla’s going to be pushing the envelope, as they move into larger and larger numbers. If Tesla grows according to projections, they’re going to need to sell just under 2 million Model Y next year. No one’s ever, ever sold close to two million units of a single model. So that will be when we first see whether consumer preferences really will support that degree of consolidation in what has historically been an extremely fragmented market.
After that, the numbers get even further from what we’ve seen in the past. If Tesla’s going to sell 20 million units with only three or four volume models, then obviously they’re going to have to blow even further past those sales volumes.
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Not to disagree with the thesis, but the Model T sold 15 million, and the Volkswagen Beetle sold 23 million. Not in the same year, obviously 
Obviously. Clearly I’m talking about per year. Toyota’s sold some 50 million of the Corrolla, after all. Highest-selling car in history. But in a single year, of course, the market ends up being much more fragmented. Toyota built the most popular car in history, but in any given year some 98% of people buy a different car - in no small part because for any given car segment (small sedan, midsize pickup, large SUV, what have you), most people are buying outside of that segment, let alone that model.
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Your argument here is pretty powerful. Of everyone in my network, I doubt very much that I could get them into any 5 buckets of transportation types let alone 5 buckets of NEW CAR purchases. Even if I modeled them into purchases for the next decade, it would be a tall order to see them select from so few choices.
My microcosm represents about 300 adults that I know well enough to know their car buying habits across the US and Europe with the highest concentration in urban, midwestern states.
My understanding falls off quite significantly for any other continent or for the coasts, where many car buying people live.
The paradigm shift would have to be mind-blowingly significant to even approach the numbers implicated in forward looking sales growth models.
Then again, perhaps we’re all a bunch of obsolescent luddites who would be better off buried…
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