Tesla Reports 4th Quarter Production


Production is up over 30% as expected from new production capacity. Did not make production goals due to worries. China slowdown, competition, supply chain problems.

Earnings due Jan 25. Should have nice improvement. But of course, is it enough? Worry warts will find reasons to criticize as usual.

Stock continues under pressure. And some say more downtrend is due as its just another auto company. PE is too high. Of course its growth rate is outstanding while competitors are losing market share and have lots of plants to shut down or retool.


Were the investors wrong every day of every year of the past decade? 2010 through 2019?

It needs a further 75% haircut.


Worries or not the market news will bash people from now on a lot more. The FED print and corporate lies about profits days are over. But the liars will continue on and get really slammed.

Tesla simply has down side. I am not implying Musk or Tesla is lying. I am saying investing is more jarring with the news cycle now.

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If you’re going to report numbers, it helps to reference a useful source (as opposed to the random garbage regarding Tesla to be found at Reuters).

Try here:
Tesla Production And Deliveries Graphed Through Q4 2022: New Records

From the article:
In 2022, Tesla produced 1,369,611 electric cars (up 47 percent year-over-year) and delivered 1,313,851 (up 40 percent year-over-year).

YTD 2022 (YOY change):

  • Total production: 1,369,611 (up 47%)
    • Model 3/Y production: 1,298,434 (up 43%)
    • Model S/X production: 71,177 (up 192%)
  • Total deliveries: 1,313,851 (up 40%)
    • Model 3/Y deliveries: 1,247,146 (up 37%)
    • Model S/X deliveries: 66,705 (up 167%)

So, yes, production was up “over 30%” at 47%. And deliveries were up 40%. We’ll have to wait to see how that compares to how other companies in the car business did in 2022.

Here’s a nice chart of Tesla quarterly deliveries over the years. Easy to see it continues to show exponential yearly growth of 50%+ compounded.

Meanwhile, the stock price is insanely low for a company growing so fast and with such revenue. But perhaps that’s due to the apparent growing insanity of the CEO, demonstrated every day on Twitter.



A point to remember, the IRA kicked in on January 1 which made it reasonable to delay your purchase by a few days to get the $7,500 tax rebate. Those sales will happen this month. It’s the reason Tesla offered a $7,500 discount during December to keep inventory moving.

Barco parado no gana flete (Nothing ventured nothing gained?)


From a business point of view making a profit is nice but cash is king. Inventory is cash not coming in and potential customers could find an alternative for their money. This also applies to investing, people waiting for a stock to bounce back before selling a loser. Anchoring is bad

The Captain
except for boats in the water where you want to be anchored firmly :wink:

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I’ve mentioned this before as a partial reason for the slowdown in sales in Q4. In actuality, this is hardly relevant for three reasons:

  1. The tax credit doesn’t apply to model 3, S, and X.
  2. Most people who buy a Tesla model Y aren’t eligible for the tax credit due to the new income limitations (75/150k).
  3. High-end model Ys (with FSD for example) aren’t eligible for the tax credit due to vehicle price (though there is a workaround).

Tesla gave the $7.500 discount AND 10,000 included miles of supercharging (worth about $1300) in late Q4 almost solely as an inducement to book some extra deliveries in Q4. The promotion is not a surprise, they’ve done Q4 promotions before. What was a surprise is the magnitude of the promotion. That makes people worry about how strong demand really is right now. I was tempted to snap up a model Y last week at the discount (I wouldn’t be eligible for the tax credit anyway), but then decided against it for various reasons (I may regret that choice, but qué será, será).



With Tesla stock this far down, and the company showing a profit, might it be time to not review the company as fast grower like a Saul stock, buy simply as a car company with an estimated forward P/E ratio?

I mean Tesla turned the same profit as Toyota did.

Toyota has a market cap of 225B and Tesla a market cap of 350B. However, Tesla has the trajectory, (I will not comment on ability or probability.) to see twice the profits of Toyota in only two more years.

Just this super crude, and most likely wrong, analysis says that even if Tesla slows down a little, and stops growing completely in 3 or 4 years, and the p/e remains fixed, we could see a 50 percent rise in Tesla stock in 2 years.

A 30 percent hair cut in Tesla stock price from here means you get to buy Tesla for the same P/E as Toyota and get a company growing at 40 percent? a year. Seems like a back up the truck moment.

Is there anybody out there that has the clear headed Saul like numbers analysis on Tesla?



I mean, sure. But a core component of the bear case against Tesla at any given time is that they won’t be able to continue growing so rapidly going forward.

That bear case has generally been wrong in the past - as IGU pointed out, historically Tesla has grown rapidly and (roughly) in line with what they had been projecting. Presumably, one major reason why the stock has declined so much in value is because growth rates seem a bit more vulnerable going forward.


Right, and this is fair and reasonable. But at some point even with a reduced growth rate, Tesla has a deep value, and the growth say beyond 2025 is just free stock warrant.

Let’s look at Toyota.

Imagine you could by Toyota at it’s 10 year moving average. That would be about 120 dollars a share. That would be a great price. But in addition to the great price, you got a free two year stock warrant with a strike price of $150 a share. Wouldn’t you be interested in that deal?

Maybe I am wrong, probably am, but I would like a deep analysis on this.

Qazulight (This is also making me think there might be some convertible bonds and preferred stocks that will be stone cold bargains in 2023)


Sure. I think even the beariest of bears would agree that Tesla is no longer at risk of insolvency, and has some “deep value.”

But it’s not just about growth. A bear position on Tesla, especially at this price, requires having a healthy skepticism about Tesla’s margins going forward as well. Tesla has shown that it can move more than a million cars a year at hefty margins - can they move 2.5 million without putting pressure on those best-in-industry margins? If their margins move towards Toyota’s as their sales move towards Toyotas, that “free stock warrant” starts to look a little pricy.

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The Tesla bulls will tell you “but Tesla isn’t just a car company, it’s also a clean energy company, an energy storage company, and a robotaxi company, and a robot company, and an AI company, etc”. Well, that’s all possible, but right now the vast majority of revenue and profit comes from the car company part of it. When that begins to change, the valuation may also begin to change.

Of course, even as “just” a car company, they still have [among] the highest gross margins in the industry.


Just to clarify a few of these points.


This is partially correct. The base model 3 RWD ($47k) with nothing added other than sales tax will just make the cutoff. No model 3 LR ($56+k) makes the cutoff though.

This is correct! I was incorrectly quoting the numbers for the used EV credit.

Tesla already can do this. That’s the workaround I was referring to.

There is no 5-seat model Y below $55k, they start at $58k.


Yep, I was just noting the levels at which they’re eligible, even though not all currently are. I assume Tesla is smart enough to adjust pricing, available models, and/or other small tweaks to maximize the number of vehicles that are eligible (as their demand curve requires), meaning most if not all 3/Y’s will eventually get the credits.

I haven’t read through all the details, but this Twitter thread is an example on how they could qualify the 5-seat model Y (which seems most difficult at the moment): https://mobile.twitter.com/st_lopes/status/1610068587456118786. Or Tesla could just add a removable row of seats to all model Y’s, I guess.

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Stock price volatility has nothing to do with growth.

Is a Morris Minor the same as a Rolls Royce? They are both cars with 4 wheels each.

What most people miss is that Tesla is not just a car company.

Toyota has no huge fast charger network
Toyota is trying to slow down EV adoption
Toyota has no Virtual Power Plants
Toyota does not produce batteries
Toyota does not sell grid scale Megapack storage
Toyota does not have SpaceX materials feedback (stainless steel)
Tesla does not have the ICE vehicle overhang
Governments are not incentivising fossil fuel transportation

Most important of all, at the core of renewables are batteries. Think batteries. Think how batteries are reorganizing the grid from utility centric to distributed. While lots of people advocate nuclear that takes lots of capital and central planning while solar is “crowd sourced!” Quite simply people solving their own energy problems and needs.

Is there anybody out there that has the clear headed Saul like numbers analysis on Tesla?

Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily


Now you know

Best in Tesla

The Captain


Looks like Manchin and company and the allies have negotiated things. Tesla’s problem is producing in China.

Even when the list published on Thursday is complete, it might be good for only three months or so because officials plan to carry out other parts of the law in March. That is when the Biden administration plans to put in place new rules intended to force carmakers to buy batteries and raw materials from suppliers in the United States and its trade allies. Very few if any electric cars might qualify right away after those rules go into effect, auto experts said.


But they are! Plenty of hybrid inefficient vehicles (one with 21 mpge!) are getting a $7,500 tax credit while many of Teslas with >100 mpge are not.


Your inner engineer should enjoy this battery pack comparison

The Captain


They are but involuntarily. Car makers learned how to game regulation. Take the cars that shut down the motor when they come to a stop only tio have to start them as soon a you hit the accelerator. Lots of extra useless crap to game regulations. Or a SUV is a Truck. None of that helps reduce burning fossil fuels.

The Captain

not to mention political pork…


The automakers earn a credit toward their CAFE requirement for installing that system, regardless whether it actually saves any fuel, or not. Of course the maintenance costs to the consumer for replacement starters, due to the higher usage, and turbochargers, because the turbine bearings lose oil pressure when the engine stops, are not the OEM’s concern, because the increased failure rate will probably not surface until the car is out of warranty.