Examining Powell Industries (POWL)

Powell is a company founded in 1947 which produces electrical components for industrial projects such as substations, electrical houses, circuit breakers, and communication systems. They are involved in the full life cycle of these projects from development, manufacturing, and service.

POWL reported earnings on July 31, and the stock was up between 30-40% on the day, but the price has drifted down since then. The company reported 288M of revenue which was up 50% yoy and up 13% qoq. The catalyst for this type of growth is more work with data centers, and strong performance in existing sectors such as Oil & Gas, and Petrochemical.

Here is snapshot of the companies financials for the last six quarters,

Revenue and yoy growth
171M → 192M → 209M → 194M → 255M → 288M
34% → 42% → 28% → 53% → 49% → 50%

EBITDA
12M → 24M → 32M → 28M → 41M → 59M

Net income
9M → 19M → 26M → 24M → 34M → 46M

Gross margin
20% → 22% → 25% → 25% → 25% → 28%

What I am impressed with here is that the revenue was in the ~200M range about a year ago but came in at 255M and 288M the last two quarters.

Additionally, EBITDA, net income and gross margin are all going up and trending in the right direction. The company is a 2B market cap, 2300 employees, and has a 14.3x P/E. They are investing and innovating in R&D with adding new products.

The CEO Brett Cope has been in the role eight years and worked his way up through the company coming from sales and marketing. The CFO Michael Metcalf has been in the role for six years. Headquarters is in Houston, Texas.

Reviewing the earnings call on July 31, 2024 here were some highlights,

  • Strength across nearly all of the market sections served
  • Oil & Gas grew 56% yoy, Petrochemical grew 158% yoy
  • 356M of new orders in the quarter, up 51% sequentially, but down 30% yoy (They booked two “mega” natural gas projects a year ago for a tough comp)
  • Significant increase drive by Electric Utility sector
  • Awarded notable petrochemical order for greenfield project in North America
  • Gross profit in the quarter “nearly doubled” yoy with gross margin of 28.4%
  • “Encouraging dynamic we are observing is the improvement in gross margins across the whole of the business, including many of our non-industrial markets”
  • Economics of these nonindustrial markets are improving
  • Backlog remains unchanged sequentially, at 1.3B which is the highest in Powell’s history
  • Adj EPS of 3.79 (Analysts had forecast only 2.16), versus 1.52 year ago
  • Acquired nine acres near Houston HQ for 5.5M to increase building capacity
  • R&D spend is up 49%, advancing innovation initiatives to develop new technologies and broaden the product portfolio
  • Market sector of Utility up 77% yoy, Commercial and Other up 63%
  • Domestic revenue as 244M up 59%
  • International revenue up 14% yoy, with projects in UK and Canada
  • Company is continuing to benefit from the revenues exiting the backlog of on the large petrochemical order booked in fiscal 2023
  • Gross profit for the quarter was 82M vs 43M year ago
  • Gross margin up 380 bps yoy
  • SG&A as percentage of revenue decreased 260 bps to 7.6%
  • 13.8M of operating cash flow
  • 374M of cash on balance sheet, was 279M year ago
  • Analyst was curious how revenue was up so much as the company seems to be at max capacity, CEO said the company is coming up “against limits”, but Q3 had healthy closeouts and hit the top side (This is a concern of mine that the quarter could be timing related to the upside on projects)
  • Analyst asked it sounds like utility market is going better than 6 months ago, CEO said “you’re absolutely spot on”
  • Stronger in utility now, Powell brought back into the mix on many of these discussions, “excited by resurgence”
  • Analyst, “it’s hard to ignore how quickly cash is building”
  • Analyst notes that CEO’s commentary discussed how win rates are improving
  • A lot of the infrastructure in the US, Canada, and UK has come up for renewal, and they are looking for strong reliability which Powell provides
  • What’s working really well is that “fewer and fewer engineering firms that were competing. The price point really changed.”
  • “We’re winning through different channels as well”

Reviewing the prior earnings on May 1, 2024,

  • Continued strength and healthy levels of project activity for core industrial end markets
  • New orders of 235M, no mega projects booked
  • Revenue 255M, up 49%
  • Oil & Gas grew 66% yoy, Petrochemical 93% yoy
  • Seeing strong project execution and operational efficiences
  • Gross profit 24.6% of revenue or 510 bps improved yoy
  • Benefitting from quality of backlog, and more favorable margin profile
  • Powell’s focus on custom engineered to order solutions for complex projects means that they rarely aspire to win projects on price
  • Net income of 33.5M of 2.75 per share
  • Backlog at 1.3B and record
  • Expansion at Houston facility is complete, incremental fabrication and integration support for large power control rooms, especially for projects that support delivery and transport by water access
  • Backlog has tripled in last two years
  • Used to primarily serve the outside connection to the data center with the grid, but have potential for further penetration within the four walls of the data center
  • Power solutions by data centers are also growing in sophistication and require companies like Powell to build fully integrated solutions
  • Building relationships with hyper-scalers to better understand the demands of these facilities
  • Outlook on our Utility market is among the most positive in recent years
  • Increasing power demands from data centers mean power generation across the US must grow
  • 17M operating cash flow
  • Analyst surprised at top line of revenue growth, because thought they were running at capacity (my biggest concern too if they can continue to scale)
  • Resurgence potential in Middle East, and some work in Africa which is “pretty interesting”, brownfield work in Africa (assuming this means rebuilding old facilities)
  • Not optimized to compete yet inside the data center, and there were strong multinational competitors, however, last 3-4 years having conversations about what designs customers want so they can compete

I’ve started a 2.2% position in POWL and continuing to learn more. This is a low confidence position for me as I am still wondering if the growth can continue like they have shown the last two quarters. The CEO sounds humble, and they are looking to innovate and get more wins in the data center. Other sectors seem to be booming too.

With this being a 2B market cap company and P/E of 14.3x I could see this company potentially reaching a 6-10B market cap over the coming years if the business does well. Powell sounds like they are building important relationships with hyper-scalers which could drive growth for years if they nurture those relationships properly.

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Hi wpr101,
Nice write up. I took a look at Powell’s products on their website and your writeup, and I like them. I think that there are two tailwinds for Powell. First, the growth in electric energy needs to manage electrification of data centers due to AI growth and on-shoring due to supply chain problems during COVID should benefit Powell. It’s now on my watch list.

Best,
buwlnkl

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Powell presented at the Midwest IDEAS Investor conference on August 29. The CFO Micheal Metcalf presented and it was followed by a short Q&A after.

A couple big take aways from the presentation were,

  • a competitive advantage they have is being on the water (Houston) which allows they to ship power control systems which are so large they cannot be shipped by rail or truck but instead can go on a barge
  • asset management of power supplies is a growing field for them, doing preventive maintenance and predictive analytics of equipment
  • value prop of Powell is that Powell can deliver the entire integrated solution
  • stepping away from poor terms and lower margin projects that they used to take, have optionality now
  • no debt, cash continues to grow
  • planning to spend 11M in CapEx over the next two years for additional production capacity with 5.5M already spent on 9 acres of land near current facility in Houston

Some other points from the presentation and Q&A were,

  • exciting time for Powell
  • 75 years+ old company
  • also operates out of Canada and UK
  • focused on core industrial work
  • 2500-3000 employees approximately
  • provides electrical distribution equipment form the breaker to switchgear and incorporated into the power control room
  • similar to a circuit breaker panel in a home but on a huge scale
  • bought GE’s medium voltage circuit breaker back in 2010, and Powell has it’s own medium voltage circuit breaker which goes into switch gear, houses circuit breakers, and placed in the power control room
  • offers 0 to 38 KV range or low to medium voltage, no high voltage
  • very good in engineered to order applications, where high degree of electrical complexity and configuration, this is where Powell plays very well
  • very loyal following within customer base including industrial, petrochemical, oil & gas, and hydrogen
  • example of solar field, wind farm, coal plant, or LNG turbine where power comes off, gets stepped down to medium voltage and this is where Powell plays in
  • switch gear steps down medium voltage to low and powers the building
  • works on transit applications in NYC and West Coast
  • CTA (Chicago Transit Authority) is a good customer
  • give operators advanced notice to maintain equipment properly
  • two standards, ANSI = North American, Asia, Saudi Arabia, rest of world is on IEC
  • UK facility of Powell’s does IEC, the rest of the market is ANSI
  • powel control room (also called e-house) could have 20-30 power control stations across 100 acre facility, 100 lineups of switch gear, each circuit driving a different pump or motor
  • pieces of equipment are distributing power to different elements of the utility generation station, highly configurable
  • have hardware and sensors going into switchgear that can measure abnormalities in electrical distribution, humidity, dust, etc
  • the sensors going to feed boxes on each lineup of switch gear
  • aspiring to get to the next step of uploading to the cloud to get on maintenance person’s tablet, but not there yet for this solution
  • growing in new markets: utility, metals and mining, pulp and paper, data centers
  • last couple of years have seen a big resurgence in LNG, lots of activity in the hydrogen space, carbon capture, biodiesel, renewable diesel
  • on competition, do not have a competitor with is a pure competitor (Venn diagram shown but I was only able to get audio)
  • left hand side of Venn diagram: ABBs, Eaton Schneider, Siemens compete on every campaign
  • sometimes using their equipment in sales/contract and have great partnership with Eaton, some partnership with Siemens, CFO called it a “strange relationship” since they are also competitors
  • ABB doesn’t not partner well with
  • others have switch gear and breakers but not able to provide full solution with HVAC and batteries the way that Powell does
  • right side of Venn diagram is building manufacturers
  • CEO Brett realized importance of driving counter cyclical growth in the business: utilities, and automation services
  • there is an automation drive in the industry that Powell and other competitors are moving towards
  • trying to grow organically for automation but could look at acquisitions
  • on services, “sky is the limit”
  • GE medium voltage breaker brought in an enormous install base, Powell’s install base is robust as well
  • new R&D VP leader, grown team, R&D spend going up only 30-40 bps, aspire to double down on this initiative
  • a lot of working capital spend that comes in mid project
  • LNG projects take 2.5-3 years to complete
  • tail of backlog being delivered in late 2026 or early 2027
  • build out for Canada oil and gas a long time ago which went down, but in great spot with capacity being utilized to full degree, same with Houston
  • very pleased with margins
  • book to bill ratio metric watched like a hawk, want to keep backlog north of 1B
  • lots of new mega orders happened in 2023 for LNG and petrochemical (this is also a concern of mine that revenue being recognized now is from outsized orders in 2023)
  • demand for Powell is now more broad based, utility is strong and strong across core markets
  • sales offices in Middle East and Asia
  • core industrial market is driving revenue
  • booking in 2023 making way through backlog now
  • utilities about 1/4th of business, growing focus there
  • doubled down on some things to grow margin: price, commodity hedging, shortened proposal validity to customers
  • SG&A, taking particular care not to grow fixed costs too much
  • balance sheet most proud off, all debt paid off since 2021
  • driving really good return on equity and ROIC
  • conservatively run company
  • after covid started updating pricing models because of inflationary pressure
  • can’t fix pricing backwards looking on backlog but can do going forward
  • Powell used to bid on a contract with terms up to one year, now only 30 days, protecting from supply chain
  • hedging core materials such as copper
  • Powell buys some equipment like HVAC, battery, low voltage motor control to include in projects
  • projects booked one to two years ago making way through backlog
  • electrical equipment lead times 24-36 months and customers are okay with this because not a lot of capacity on the market for this type of equipment
  • new services VP for automation, will use cash to grow the business
  • instrumentation inside of gear which measures abnormalities, huge value prop for operators

My take is that there is a lot of demand for Powell products and build out from a large variety of different customers ranging from industrial to data centers. The company is able to be selective on projects now as they scale up, and this should boost margins more.

I’d be interested for more feedback on the board about this one, it may sound like a somewhat stodgy company, but I think they may be able to grow rapidly over the coming years.

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