Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) Has Succeeded In Attracting Investors This Year, The Stock Is Up 36.10% Year-To-Date
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https://discussion.fool.com/xom-stock-is-up-3610-year-to-date-35…
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The share price of oil stocks tend to rise and fall with oil prices.
Recall in the early days of Covid, oil prices were negative for a while. That was an excellent time to buy XOM. Dividend hit 11% and Exxon was losing money. People thought the dividend might be cut. That didn’t happen.
They say Exxon bases its investment decision on $50/bbl oil. At $100/bbl they do very well. Can pay down debt, pay dividends, and fund clean energy projects.
As to whether to buy now, oil prices are down a bit from their peak. Do you see $150/bbl oil in the future?
I think recession will cause oil prices to fall. How far? $60s??
Better to wait. Dividend is probably safe for now.
Of couse some think oil is a dying industry but probably not in my lifetime.
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Of course some think oil is a dying industry but probably not in my lifetime.
It’s possible that the oil industry will get very much smaller, but probably not in my lifetime.
It may be dramatically transformed, if we find an efficient way to synthesize the stuff from air and water. (Nature is horribly inefficient, but has been doing it for a few billion years so has a stockpile built up.)
And the stuff is far too useful as a lubricant and chemical feedstock for the industry to die.
(Note that both the Stone Age and the Iron Age are still going strong, and the Bronze Age is sort of trickling along.)
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. . . and the Bronze Age is sort of trickling along.)
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I suspect that Copper is going to have steep demand curve ahead. EVs, solar, wind, improving the grid & rewiring those (older) aluminum-wired houses are all going to contribute!
sunray
a man with an all Elec house in FLA
& an owner of XOM since the prev century
And then there is coal, dead for a while, but seems to be making a comeback.
if we find an efficient way to synthesize [oil] from air and water.
We know how to make oil from almost any carbon source. It requires lots of energy.
But if energy is cheap why do we need oil? Tradition. We have equipment to process, transport and use it. (Ie resistance to change.)
The sun’s energy is free. We should capture more of it.
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But if energy is cheap why do we need oil? Tradition.
Yes, lubricating moving parts is indeed traditional.
Yes, lubricating moving parts is indeed traditional.
Yes, and we had moving parts that were lubricated before we had petroleum oil.
Lard oil, the oil pressed from lard is a traditional lubricant. It is still used in metal working fluids.
And then there is goose grease.
Rendering companies still make these natural products available for a variety of uses.
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Rendering companies still make these natural products available for a variety of uses.
I understand that whale oil was also popular at one time for use in lighting and lubrication of fine instruments such as watches.
Worked pretty good, too. At least until we killed off so many whales they became uneconomic to hunt.
Perhaps there are parallels there. If only I could think of one.
[end sarcasm mode]
–Peter
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Yes, but alas hogs and geese are still out there making lubricant’s for us. Supply seems reliable. Not endangered species.
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XOM ytd chart.
I’d be getting out.
Oil is dropping. XOM is dropping. The top was in.
I suspect that Copper is going to have steep demand curve ahead. EVs, solar, wind, improving the grid & rewiring those (older) aluminum-wired houses are all going to contribute!
Using this logic, I started investing into copper (COPX, FCX, etc). But I was, and am, way too early. The fear of recession has dropped copper (along with almost all commodities) like a rock. It’s a medium-to-long-term thesis, so it doesn’t matter much, and I’ve been buying more all along [the way down].
Yes, lubricating moving parts is indeed traditional.
That’s yet other beautiful thing about EVs … very few moving parts. Their lubrication needs to be changed very very very rarely.
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Yes, but alas hogs and geese are still out there making lubricant’s for us. Supply seems reliable. Not endangered species.
But are there enough of them to replace the petroleum we pump out of the ground?
—Peter
But are there enough of them to replace the petroleum we pump out of the ground?
For fuel use, clearly no. For lubrication of machinery, probably.
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The share price of oil stocks tend to rise and fall with oil prices.
Recall in the early days of Covid, oil prices were negative for a while. That was an excellent time to buy XOM. Dividend hit 11% and Exxon was losing money. People thought the dividend might be cut. That didn’t happen.
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Of couse some think oil is a dying industry but probably not in my lifetime.
I bought Suncor not long after. Added more when Joe started begging nations to deliver more oil to US and started releasing oil from the strategic reserve. Short term we can’t reasonably deliver more oil to the Gulf coast refiners … but I think the Trans Mountain Expansion is due to come on-line next year … think tankers on the west coast?
Tim
https://www.transmountain.com/news/2022/trans-mountain-expan…
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“That’s yet other beautiful thing about EVs … very few moving parts. Their lubrication needs to be changed very very very rarely.”
EVs have giant batteries that require heating and cooling and fire prevention. If your EV battery dies outside warranty, it might be cheaper to buy a new car and scrap the old one.
You still have moving drive shafts, steering, tires, suspension (EVs weigh more by almost a thousand pounds), electronics and computers, heating and cooling systems, power windows and door locks, entertainment systems (very troublesome), large display screens, charging circuits, etc.
You’ll still be taking your EV in every year for checks for this and that, tightening connections, checking steering mechanism, suspension, etc. OH, and state inspections.
t.
EVs have giant batteries that require heating and cooling and fire prevention. If your EV battery dies outside warranty, it might be cheaper to buy a new car and scrap the old one.
Yes. When things break, they need to be repaired or replaced. A friend loves BMWs and he needed some work done on his valves and it ended up costing him close to $7,000! Then 6 weeks later, he needed some sort of gasket changed that required pulling the engine out AGAIN, and that one cost nearly $3000. He still loves his BMW.
You still have moving drive shafts, steering, tires, suspension (EVs weigh more by almost a thousand pounds), electronics and computers, heating and cooling systems, power windows and door locks, entertainment systems (very troublesome), large display screens, charging circuits, etc.
Sure. But this discussion was about needing oil, and oil related products, as consumables. As a rule, EVs don’t use many oil-based consumables (or any consumables at all for that matter). Also, many/most EVs are mostly driven without ever using the brakes. I think I tap the brake pedal about once a week at this point. I suspect that the brake pads (and probably brake fluid) will outlast the rest of the car at this rate of usage.
You’ll still be taking your EV in every year for checks for this and that, tightening connections, checking steering mechanism, suspension, etc. OH, and state inspections.
Every car has service intervals, here’s a link to the service intervals for the Tesla Model 3 (the most common EV on the road today) - https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_us/GUID-E95DAAD…
* Brake fluid health check every 2 years (replace if necessary).
* A/C desiccant bag replacement every 6 years.
* Cabin air filter replacement every 2 years.
* Clean and lubricate brake calipers every year or 12,500 miles (20,000 km) if in an area where roads are salted during winter
* Rotate tires every 6,250 miles (10,000 km) or if tread depth difference is 2/32 in (1.5 mm) or greater, whichever comes first
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OH, and state inspections
I don’t know about TX, but in California the only “State Inspection” is the biannual smog testing. EVs don’t require the biannual smog testing, and unless they are autonomous driving vehicles, there is no other “State Inspection.”
But are there enough of them to replace the petroleum we pump out of the ground?
For fuel use, clearly no. For lubrication of machinery, probably.
I assume this is a “tongue in cheek” thread - folks just having fun.
The lubrication requirements for modern machinery are far, far beyond the hogs, geese, and whale days. Temperatures, pressures, required product life before replacement, etc. are all at a far different level.
Ask the folks at Lubrizol why they have a large business just making additives for lubricant base stocks to improve their properties.
And why synthetic base stocks for lubricants have grown 22% over the 2017-21 period. It’s because even better performance is needed than petroleum derived base stocks can deliver as some machinery further evolves.
This isn’t April 1st revisited is it?
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