Facebook - Is the Story Changing?

I realize that FB is not in Saul’s and others’ portfolios. But some here may still have positions.
FB is reporting Wednesday and should talk about the period of “improvement” that they are undergoing. In my humble opinion it will have a negative impact on earnings for a while.

Do others on this board agree?

If you agree, are you staying the course or is the business sory changing to the point you are moving on?

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What timing you have for that question. I have held shares of FB for a good while and have made some good returns during that time. I am sure that they will be fine over the long term, but short term I don’t see sticking around with it when I think I see a better opportunity. It is kind of hard to let go of shares of a winner that I have held onto for so long but I am going to move on and put some of it into PSTG. I already own some shares and would like to add more and FB is what I am choosing to let go of.

I do believe that this so called improvement will have a negative impact on earnings short term, but I am sure they will be fine in the long run.

Owned shares of FB but never had an actual FB account. I believe at last count there is only 5 people who do not have a FB account and I am one of them.


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We sold around 189.


Same as Qazulight. Too many obstacles in the short term and risk of political pressure. Could be a major mistake on my part, but I too thought I could allocate the money to better ideas.

Also… it’s just a huge company by market cap which might make it harder to double and triple from here. But who knows.


It was in our slow growth
lower beta account.

The CEOcame out and said that he was going to make significant adjustments to the core of the Facebook business. As user and as a citizen this makes me happy.

However, if one can be invested in a business that is going through significant changes, or one that is firing on all cylinders? Which to choose. Looking to add Google and Amazon on any weakness in the market at all.

In my “Saul” account I have a lot of work to do.

Thinking of selling Nvidia. It doesn’t really fit into the “Can it double” camp. However, my wife informed me we cannot sell the postition until we create a postion in the stodgy account and we will do niether until we listen to the latest videos and maybe the annual report.

I want to cinsider selling EXAS and buying another pharm stock or two. Again not willing to move until earnings.

Also, somewhat concerned about Talend. The charts is a sick puppy. Nothing good happening on the technicals. Need to invesigate more.

Maybe trade Talend for Pure Storage? Hummm.

So much work to do.



I’m holding. Here’s why.

Just today I read about GOOG and Tencent (sorry, don’t know ticker) agreeing to what appears to me to be
an unprecedented plan.

GOOG is the uncontested king of Search across the planet, almost anywhere you go. China? New Delhi?
Moscow? Doesn’t matter, GOOG is king.

Tencent is kicking butt in their own country of 1,000,000,000 souls. GOOG is having trouble getting any
traction in China. Tencent is kicking butt in every single category in China (not the King, but truly
kicking butt nonetheless, raising share in every category … except … search. As we’ve learned, GOOG
is Kink of search, even in China.

So what do these leaders of global enterprise do? Do they swear an oath to wipe each other out ala’
a local leader who shall remain nameless? Call them out on Twitter?

Nope. These guys have a couple of meetings and agree to share all technology for their corresponding
talents. Their best, their worst, their world champs, their we-need-helps, everything. They agreed to
put aside all their patents for each other. I wasn’t at the meeting, obviously, but my understanding is
that we’re not talking about a few cherry-picked assets, patents and talents. We’re talking about …

Here I sit, surrounded by people cheering BUY, BUY, BUY, every day. They’re preaching to the choir
at my place 'cause I’m optimistic about our near-term investing environment too. But let’s not kid
ourselves. Anyone with a coherent thought has in the back of their mind that this goldilocks situation
never has, can not, will not last forever. Few of us are worried about what will happen. On the other
hand, darned few of us are dumb enough to lay out our plans assuming that every month will bring us 20%
gains just like this month did. Speak up if I’m wrong, please.

But instead of thinking how they can sneak around their gigantic, high-tech, all-powerful competitors
from shall we say less than brothers in arms geopolitical locals, and get a couple of points worth of
gain here and maybe 3.2% gain there, no, no, no. Unless I badly misread the headliines, these guys are
putting all their cards, all their assets, all their unimaginably huge piles of money and future
earnings at risk. They share it with competitors. Before you say, “Big deal”, I challenge you to describe
any situation in which an older behemoth might do the same. Where GE shares all their tech with a
gigantic German engineering firm? How about Exon opening their “How To” manuals with Gazprom? Good luck
with that.

When everyone talks about the new world order, how things will change like even those of us who believe we’re
somewhere near the edge of the technological revolution coming at us, can’t begin to imagine, I often
think we have no idea what we’re talking about and we certainly have no idea of the real drivers of
change headed our way.

For me, I say this is it. Google giving all its hard-earned advantages to a very competent and hard
fighting competitor? Who saw this coming? Who can imagine the scope of this change in corporate
strategy? Who among us would be willing to bet it all on red 13? Oh, and did I mention that our Chinese
competitor who is turning back our forces every time we cross swords on their turf, is the very owner of
Red 13? And they will give us all the rights to red 13 and all their other holdings, if we give them all
rights to whatever made us one of the biggest success stories of our time?

I’m not concerned that 19 of my 20 holdings went down today. Not one bit, seriously. But I’d be a liar
if I said that somewhere in the back of my consciousness is that very fact, I remotely realize that once
again, all (almost this time) of my holdings went down in 1 fell swoop. It’s normal, it happens, it will
happen again. I get that. But here are 2 giants of capitalism, agreeing to share every advantage they
ever had, the very ones that took them to the top of their respective mountains. Does this not sound
like possible history in the making?

Every capitalist wants to know what all these new changes will be and what will drive them. Don’t look at
me, I don’t know the answers. But I do know this. Whatever you think it will be, it won’t. Whatever you
“know” isn’t coming in the future, what can not ever happen, just might surprise us all by happening

Great leaders do things different than the rest of us, that’s what makes them leaders. Historically,
what they do that surprised us down to our very souls today, will seem like the natural outcome
tomorrow, something we all “knew” was coming. I say we don’t know. It’s original thinking like the
people at Google and Tencent that will lead the way. I don’t know their path, not even the direction.
But I will not bet against trailblazing, world changing genius. Not even when it shocks me to the core.
Isn’t that how change often comes upon us?

Now I have no idea if this contract will change the world. But the ORIGINAL THINKING? The RISK TAKING?
I believe they will change our world.

What an exciting time to be alive. Scary for some of us older heads, but oh, so exciting. And here it comes.

Anyway, yep, that’s why I’m staying on board.



I believe this is called disruptive thinking.

From here:


[quote]Figuring out a way to be the only one who does what
you do is a provocative goal, but it’s absolutely unobtainable
unless you make some significant changes
to the way you think about competition and the business
you’re in. I’m not talking about little tweaks here
and there. I’m talking about a way of thinking that
surprises the market again and again with exciting,
unexpected solutions. A way of thinking that produces
an unconventional strategy that leaves competitors
scrambling to catch up. A way of thinking that
turns consumer expectations upside down and takes
an industry into its next generation. It’s what I call
disruptive thinking.[/quote]

This is worth paying attention to. Perhaps as much to enjoy the show, but also to inform on how others might react to similar situations and to gain insight on other opportunities.


Hi Dan,

“GOOG is the uncontested king of Search across the planet, almost anywhere you go. China? New Delhi?
Moscow? Doesn’t matter, GOOG is king…As we’ve learned, GOOG is Kink of search, even in China”.

I thought google is blocked in China and the top search engine is Baidu.


“Baidu has the 2nd largest search engine in the world, and held a 76.05% market share in China’s search engines market, the largest in the world, as of April 2017”.


Not sure if I misunderstood your post?


Not sure if I misunderstood your post?

Ha. Nope, I was thinking of a study of several search apps that did include Chinese but you’re right,
I was wrong to throw China in here. My real point is that Tencent is gaining big time in every category
EXCEPT Search and therefore the high rate of synergy between the 2 firms’ talents when/if combined.

Although I was kind of shocked at first glance, I now wouldn’t be too surprised if GOOG gains more with
the agreement than Tencent, but because the stakes for the Chinese market are 3x larger, and Search share
is a dominant precursor to online success for both firms and their competition alike, Tencent is willing
to play the game.

I don’t think this gigantic sharing move among competitors would be obvious to many of my generation. Or
it could just be me. Of course there are previous examples of the generosity of sharing in other firms
like Microsoft or Intuit*.


*Do you use Quicken or Quickbooks? They work most of the time, but if you want a complete accounting
system, they each offer 8-10 “Additional Features” starting at around $39. And that’s from the “Premiere”
version. So much for generosity. “Thank you for buying our product. You want it to WORK too?! Can do.
That’s extra.” And that’s for their customer. Can’t imagine how they treat competition. :frowning: