My ENPH position grew to over 80%. This was by design (my position was even larger just prior to earnings…which were VERY good…thanks for asking). In order to build up my ENPH position, I had to close out two positions: Albermarle (ALB), Icon PLC (ICLR) and “top slice” my other holdings (by the way, I love the descriptor “top slice”, it perfectly describes a routine practice of mine). I will be circling back to rebuild my other positions once the ENPH consolidation phase begins (it’s still rising two days after earnings).
New Position:
As a direct consequence of my SWKS and DIOD investments, I began stumbling onto other 5G telecommunications plays. I’ve created a watch list of other players, but Inseego (INSG) immediately piqued my interest. It’s a small cap ($419 M) with pipsqueak revenues ($193 M). Here’s why I invested: INSG is devoted to developing software and appliances for 5G applications for aviation, automotive and residential purposes. Granted, 5G implementation has barely begun (we’re at the beginning of the beginning) but INSG created the modem (MiFii) being installed by Verizon in 5G-connected homes. Verizon has begun deployment in just a small handful of medium-size cities as of now. However, Verizon has stated it intends to deploy 5G in 30 cities by year end. If Inseego remains the preferred modem provider, that will constitute major revenue increases and a substantial “first mover” advantage. I’d tell you more if I knew more. I’ve just begun my research.
One More Thing:
Last month, I noted I invested in VMW with this parenthetical remark: “(yes, yes I know that Nutanix is the overwhelming board favorite)”
Both companies reported earnings at market close today. At the end of trading today, NTNX is DOWN 21.1% and VMW is UP 3.6%. Profits matter, folks.
80% in 1 stock (Enphase) - am I reading that right? And pretty much the whole portfolio in telco, computing, silicon equipment/infrastructure?
Wow - that’s one hell of a company and sector concentration.
I hold Micron and have held Skyworks and Infinera and am considering Transenterix although the short hit pieces may have some merit which scared me off.
80% in 1 stock (Enphase) - am I reading that right? And pretty much the whole portfolio in telco, computing, silicon equipment/infrastructure? - anthonyms
The 80% was not a typo and, yes, my portfolio is downright weird.
The fact of the matter is that I’ve owned Enphase for over four years. The company went to hell and back developing sophisticated solutions for converting solar panel generated DC current into AC current for the home. These are unique and best-of-class solutions. The company teetered on the brink of bankruptcy as it plowed all earnings into developing ever more sophisticated solutions. Those solutions are now entering the market to great response. I was buying ENPH when the shares were selling at less than $1.00. I bought many thousands. At present, ENPH has grown into a ten-bagger for me and the best is yet to come. But, yes, 80% is too high an allocation. Given that my stock profits are my only source of revenue for other investments, that allocation will shrink over time. Even so, the best is yet to come; therefore, I’ll keep at least a robust 5-figure share position.
You have correctly identified that I’m an infrastructure (picks & shovels) kinda guy. This technological age of ours is downright breath-taking. I’m not interested in niche software plays. Their popularity will come and go, but infrastructure is a critical need. That’s where you’ll find me.
As for Transenterix? I’m ambivalent. My allocation grows and shrinks as I swing trade. I’m convinced their Senhance robotic system is superior/more cost-effective than ISRG’s Da Vinci system. The CEO, Todd Pope, is a brilliant visionary and he’s laid out a well-planned road map for growth. He well explains what he’s doing. The earnings transcripts are well worth the time to read and digest. Thing is, ISRG has dominated the market for twenty years (with no competition) and Senhance is being introduced globally, one machine at a time. This will be a long haul investment with all sorts of gyrations along the way. I’ve profited by being a swing-trader, but it’s been a challenge. As for the short hit pieces? They’ve all been refuted but they’ll keep on coming. If you’re a swing-trader, they present great opportunities. If you’re a buy and hold sort, well, load up on Maalox.
what made you go in that stock in the 1st place? I assume you went in big? wasn’t that very risky?
I guess you got a near X10 on this bet? that may be why it has become so skewed?
I recall I did such a thing several years ago (put a chunk of the money I then had in one stock) and that gave me a sizeable amount of money after a few years I could then use to invest with.
I did not stay in that stock. I cashed out and redeployed (diversified) the proceeds elsewhere. It turned out that it was just in time since the stock never hit the high at which I sold it at and that was 8 years ago. I was very lucky and I figured such luck would not repeat itelf. I had to have a method that will work year in and year out for a very long time. I learned during these past 8 years many things about investing and realized how foolish I have been. It could have been a disaster. You need some diversification regarless of how sure you are about your stock. You cannot really know what will happen to it.
what made you go in that stock in the 1st place? I assume you went in big? wasn’t that very risky? I guess you got a near X10 on this bet? that may be why it has become so skewed?
Hi tj -
I initially invested in ENPH because I found the concept of microinverters superior to the conventional string/central inverters prevalent at the time. I did not go in big initially. It was a run of the mill investment. What happened next? I researched the company and the technology. Then I researched some more. And then more. The better I understood microinverter technology, and the technology offered by conventional central inverters, the more convinced I became that Enphase was on to something significant. Long story short, I stuck to my convictions come hell or high water. I spent many hours digesting the technology, the industry response and the financials. My corporate executive experience helped me digest the financial realities. And so it came to be, that when the Market deemed ENPH a bankruptcy candidate, I decided to go big. And I did. Today, it’s been more than a ten-bagger, and I feel better than ever about ENPH’s future prospects.
Yes, my portfolio is skewed because of ENPH’s performance. Once or twice in a lifetime we may come across genuine opportunities. Enphase was (will be) that opportunity for me.
I agree that making big bets constitutes big (often inordinate) risk. The risks are minimized if the investor applies intellect, practical knowledge, experience and effort (to research the investment). I would never have made such an investment 40 years ago. I was a neophyte then, totally soaked behind the ears. That was then. Now, I’ve got 45+ years of investment experience behind me (with plenty of mistakes littered along the way). I retired as a corporate executive who lived and died by financial experience, spreadsheets and profit/loss dramas. These were all necessary ingredients. It took me decades to get to where I am. Lots of mistakes, blood and tears.
I’m not one to tout stocks and encourage others to simply do what I do. Investors come in all types. Neophytes, the risk-averse, the gamblers, the young and old, the greedy and the conservative. It’s not for me to say what’s best for anyone. Investing has been a life-long pursuit for me. I hope it will be a life-long pursuit for everyone. It’s worth the effort to learn and become proficient, but we are all an experiment of one.