Fed: 3 rate cuts in 2024


Good news. Market responding well. The REIT sector in particular is having a great day. Dropping rates should be good for that sector. I’m about 8% exposed there (VNQ, PLD, EXR, AMT) and I’m considering doubling that exposure.

I would not expect a rate decrease at least into 2H24. Then I would expect a normalization of rates at a higher level than the market might anticipate. Rates stay modestly high so taxes can be modestly low. We have a background noise of inflation that needs moderation.

Until April May that might not mean yields do not spike. The commercial office space and warehouse spaces are at risk still with loans defaulting.