Since the Federal Reserve ended its program of raising the fed funds rate in July 2023 the markets have been front-running the Fed – speculating that the Fed would cut the fed funds rate by bidding up stock prices, then dumping when the Fed disappoints them. This has happened at least 5 or 6 times.
The Fed’s shift to cutting rates began in the fall of 2024. The cuts total 150 basis points (or 1.50 percentage points).
Date of FOMC Meeting - Change (Basis Points) New Target Range (%)
September 2024−50 bps 4.75−5.00
November 2024−25 bps 4.50−4.75
December 2024−25 bps 4.25−4.50
September 2025−25 bps 4.00−4.25
October 2025−25 bps 3.75−4.00
The options market is predicting a 75% chance that the Fed will cut another 25 bps in December.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
But the FOMC is divided. The CPI is 3% and every indicator is that it will continue higher than the Fed’s target of 2%. GDP growth is still strong despite rising layoffs and difficulty in finding new jobs.
Fed Divisions Reveal New Caution Over Continued Cuts
Powell warns against assuming another rate cut is a done deal as officials navigate an economy where spending is solid but hiring has slowed
By Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal, Oct. 29, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a blunt message for investors who have assumed the central bank would be on cruise control toward a third rate cut in December: Not so fast.
Rather than hide behind cryptic and vague language that central bankers often deploy, Powell went out of his way Wednesday to play up divisions on the rate-setting committee and play down the idea that a rate cut in six weeks is a foregone conclusion.
“In fact, far from it,” he said at one point….
“There’s a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle, something like that,” said Powell. “For some part of the committee, it’s time to maybe take a step back and see whether there really are downside risks to the labor market, or see whether, in fact, the stronger growth that we’re seeing is real.”… [end quote]
Meanwhile, the government shutdown is preventing the BLS from generating the data the Fed needs to make decisions.
The cross-cutting data on the Fed’s two mandates—price stability and full employment—argues for caution from policy makers. Mr. Powell claims that’s what he’s delivering by warning investors off any hopes for another rate cut in December. “What do you do if you’re driving in a fog?” he asked during his press conference. “You slow down.” [end quote]
The Fed will end quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. The Fed will continue to shrink its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities by shifting into Treasury debt instead and will replace Treasuries that mature instead of letting them roll off.
While the fed funds rate is an overnight rate the Fed’s Treasury holdings impact longer-term Treasury yields. By ending QT, the Fed will finally (at long last) allow the bond market to freely set the price of lending to the government.
Despite 50 points of short-term rate cuts since September, long rates have barely moved and they rose Wednesday. Financial conditions aren’t restrictive - in fact, they are very loose when the impact of the Shadow Banking System is included.
Fed Chair Powell has said that the Fed’s aim is to maintain a neutral fed funds rate that neither stimulates nor slows the economy. Despite fierce pressure from President Trump, Powell is holding firm to his determination to be data-driven.
Wendy