…and world confidence in the sanity and consistency of USA policymaking is just skyrocketing, and that will have unknown and mostly depressing consequences.
The decision, even if upheld by the Supreme Court, won’t cancel all of Trump’s second-term tariffs. Alongside the so-called reciprocal tariffs, Trump has also imposed a number of levies on industries including automobiles, steel, aluminum and copper under a separate national security authority.
Those tariffs are unaffected by the ruling, and the administration plans to expand them over the next few months—in part to provide a backstop if the Ieepa tariffs are overturned.
Fortunately no arbitrary decision making here so a stable or at least predictable investment climate can be preserved.
Just did some quick research on the METAR aspects of this.
There has been an estimated $210 billion in tariff revenue that has been deemed illegal. If the government has to return that money to companies, there are industries that stand to have a significant windfall in profits - especially because those returned fees will not only not be returned to the customers that paid for them, but the higher prices are not likely to come back down much if the tariffs are gone.
Top of mind would be retail, chips and related tech, and automotive. Probably shipping companies too.
In your opinion, any chance that if they are recurring-purchase customers and they raise cane over paying a tariff that was rescinded, that the importers would reimburse them ? I would be raising a stink about it, if I was one of those customers with some influence.
I do agree that prices will not be coming back down, without tariff. Hope we’re wrong about that, but off the top of my head I don’t recall car companies ever lowering prices. I am/was in the market for a new vehicle, but I’ve seen a noticeable price increase from 2024-2025, so I’ll sit it out. Have been buying new for quite some time, but that could very well be over.
I think in only very rare cases. I know I purchased items online where they specifically listed the tariff on the receipt and I can’t imagine most companies have the staff or even the methodology that would allow them to refund just that line item - and that is only even possible if the retailer listed the tariff and simply didn’t increase the cost.
I think those most likely to be able to request a secondary refund would be those that are intermediaries between the importer and the final retailer.