Financials: A timely opportunity

Bank of America’s Savita regularly published this report, where she highlights the institutional investors allocation. Below chart shows long-only managers are underweight financials vs history. Some of this is could be due to Mag-7 or tech weighting, or expecting insurance rates to come down, or recession fear, or rate cuts means lower NII, etc. But clearly, -1.7 z-score shows that institutional investors are significantly under weight.

From my posts, you know I am biased to the big banks, and regional banks. Still this tells me financials have more room to run, as the institutions increase their weightings.

BAC technical analyst views on XLF,

These are medium term trades, i.e., don’t try to do weekly options.

Very true…but only problem is that no one knows when the rug pull will come…and the finiancials will be hurt, as would materials and any other recession susceptible sectors ( frankly I would thin everything tanks and will, but I guess they are telling us - 10% XLU is a great deal compared to -30% in XLK and XLF?)…Regardless, the market likely stays bullish till it can draw more in, then a nice 5-10% drawdown in sept/ oct, and then a big rally to reach current highs or may be slightly greater to end the year…and then god knows…A bigger drawdown is very unlikely till 2025, and extremely unlikely before election results.