The criticism is of the hype, not the accomplishment. What happened was 30 minutes of autonomous driving with no interventions. That’s pretty cool on its own merits, but not news worthy. But it was hyped as a first because there were no passengers. Why is that important? What does the number of passengers have to do with anything?
Instead, it comes across as desperation for a win and an attempt at distraction. Back when Tesla had no real competition Musk could say whatever he wanted and it didn’t matter, because well, Tesla had no real competition.
Now they do have real completion and it is starting to matter. Robotaxi has been front and center as part of Tesla’s strategy for almost a decade. They still haven’t really launched, in that they still need a safety driver and the service is not available to the public.
Musk said 2025 would be the most pivotal year in Tesla’s history and has announced several upcoming milestones. But Tesla is either in danger of missing or has missed a number of them, including:
- New models (plural) in the first half of 2025
- Robotaxi service in June (Musk said a safety driver would not be required so this is a fail)
- Robotaxi service in California by the end of the year. I predict this will not happen for regulatory reasons alone.
- Sales would grow by 20-30% in 2025
- Production of thousands of Optimus robots by the end of the year.
On some level, Musk has to know that the day of accounting is drawing closer. And it feels like he is trying to create distractions.