Fed is on pause for sometime, however, the soft numbers are getting softer, 
, may prompt Fed to consider cut the rates in May meeting.
I have recently bought WFC.PR.C, this has fixed coupon, of 4.375% and trading at $18, yielding 6.07%. I prefer fixed coupon so there are no surprises with rates resetting. Also, I like low coupons, because the chances of the security getting called is low, if it gets called then you are getting almost 40% capital gains.
Slowing economy and slowing inflation would suggest reducing interest rates. But now we have experts who think tariffs will increase inflation and result in stagflation. Paul Volkers solution to stagflation was very high interest rates as high as 20%.
Looks like a coin toss for now. Might be June before we know.
May be… How much, we don’t know. Fed is most likely start cutting the rates, and will front load the cutting. Separately, I am okay to settle with 6% return. I still think at 6%, at least you get 2% real return.
Congratulations on your anniversary. Many happy returns.
The world has changed so much in the last 2 weeks… I am reading lots of reports talking about 10 yr, and 30 year going over 5%..
Ignore them. Lots of self professed bond experts have emerged. They were covid and then AI expert some time ago.
In a few months they will go on to something else to be at expert at.
As usual caveat emptor.
Rising treasury yield may present some unique opportunities. If you lock them in at the right time. Not unlike market timing. Hard to get it right but not bad.
Rates are rising due to less confidence in the US due to market turmoil over tariffs and trade war. The Pres wants the Feds to reduce interest rates. May even include replacement of the Federal Reserve Chair. Might not last long. But consider this part of market volatility. Maybe you will get a home run or maybe you will strike out.
Good luck.
The administration is doing things beyond tariff. We are all so focused on tariff, but King Trump thinks and acts like he is law. The amount of illegal acts and the laws broken by the administration is staggering.
Don’t assume US will be able to attract world capital, talent, while continuing to randomly, abruptly canceling students visa, throwing people out of country, and casually saying let us tax treasury holdings by foreigners or force them to swap their existing holdings for lesser value or 100 year no interest bonds…
These are real long-term risks.