Foodles portfolio Jan 2021

This is my first formal portfolio review, I post here now and again, when I think I have something that might be of interest to folks. Also, since I hold a couple different hypergrowth stocks, I thought I should share. I have posted writeups about them before, but I’ve only seen one of them even mentioned (in just one portfolio) in all the Jan recaps that have been posted so far, so they’re not that popular! Ha, oh well, they deserve a place in my portfolio.

Quick intro…

I’ve been on Saul’s board since around 2015. It quickly became my favorite place to read/learn, but took me quite awhile to fully convert to a sub 15 holding portfolio of mostly dearly valued, non-profitable companies (it finally happened in 2019, I had 80+ holdings when I came, I’m usually between 10-14 now). What can I say, I’m a slow learner. It took even longer to finally eject the last of the old holdings. Yes, I finally exited NFLX this month after another pretty good quarter and jump for the stock price. I would have done it last year, but wanted to wait for the gain to be in 2021, as I owed more than enough taxes already in 2020. I also thought they were going to report a pretty good quarter, but wanted to be out before they start coming up against some difficult Covid comps.

Luckily I did finally learn and it allowed me to retire early, on Jan 1, 2020. I’m too young to get SS or access my retirement accounts, so I planned for my family to live off my portfolio returns… Okay! :ok_hand: Needless to say, it was a little stressful when Feb/Mar saw the market tank in what became the fastest bear market in history, because of a developing pandemic that hadn’t happened in a century (not a lot of precedence as to how this will play out)! Seeing the portfolio drop by double digits 3 times in a week, and continue down for a month, was something to behold (how again are we going to live on these returns?). Most all of my stocks were 30-50% down. I luckily had two things go my way, one was the blisteringly fast recovery our stocks started showing. The second was my cashed out 401k hit my rollover IRA in early Feb of last year, so I was able to deploy that large infusion of cash over the next few months, during some of the deepest lows. What do they say… sometimes its better to be lucky than good. Those 2 factors allowed me to end 2020 having paper gains equivalent to 20 years of the salary I left a year ago. :pray: There is no way to thank Saul and this board for that, so as others have also suggested, I’ve been able to be more generous this year than I ever thought I would be able to be, and plan on continuing to be so.

Jan '21 portfolio change +11.42%

Holdings as of the end of Jan '21

**Ticker	 Alloc	Jan Price Chg** 

**TDOC	18.54%	 +31.9%**
CRWD	18.52%	  +1.9%
DDOG	10.55%	  +4.4%
DOCU	 9.39%	  +4.8%
PTON	 8.84%	  -3.7%
**FLGT	 6.72%	+112.0% !!!**
ZM	 5.03%	 +10.3%
**OTRK	 5.00%	 +28.3%**
AYX	 3.71%	  +3.5%
ESTC	 3.61%	  +4.0%
MDB	 2.96%	  +2.9%
OKTA	 2.59%	  +1.9%
Cash	 4.54%	

You may have noticed an outlier or two (one in particular)! :joy: Some thoughts below…

TDOC 18.54% - Got into TDOC through the LVGO merger (LVGO had already grown to my #1 position), I did not like the merger at first as I thought LVGO had plenty of growth left on it’s own, but after a couple weeks, I’d changed my mind. The new company is a disruptor in an absolutely massive market ripe for change to the status quo. I’ve written about them before, here’s the latest, post# 74476.…

The stock finally broke out over the past month, reaching new highs, and vaulting it to my #1 position, but I think this first combined quarterly report is going to be what the market needs to see to finally give the TDOC/LVGO deal it’s blessing with continued stock price gains.

CRWD 18.52% - Well covered, no reason to duplicate the numbers. I will say this, CRWD is the poster child for being patient with a company when the numbers are there, but the stock performance hasn’t matched the numbers. I’ve been in CRWD since shortly after IPO, in the $60 range. I continued to buy as it initially ran up to $100. I then continued to buy all the way down to the $30s. I also added all the way back up to the $130s. But here’s the point, the numbers for CRWD were ALWAYS stellar! Why then did it drop from $100 to $30? The last bit of that drop was the pandemic, but from $100 to $40 happened while it was still reporting fantastic quarters and there was no pandemic in sight. It took almost a year to regain the $100 mark after it dropped, but I’m so happy now that I continued to build my position all those months it was taken to the woodshed. It was my confidence in the numbers, I knew it was just a matter of time before it vaulted up. Consolidation, market rotation, out of favor, becoming a coiled spring, there are a lot of different names for what happens when a stock price doesn’t follow what we think the numbers show the price should be doing. Sometimes you just need to be patient.

DDOG 10.55% - Well covered, currently in a Covid induced plateau, but should break out of that if their numbers go back up to what they were pre-Covid. If they don’t, the ultra high valuation may cause some multiple contraction.

DOCU 9.39% - Well covered, I will say I had the displeasure to e-sign a document that was not handled with DocuSign, but another company. It was a NY apartment lease I was co-signing for my son that was 70+ pages long. And where DocuSign just takes you to where you need to “sign” or “initial” (I had already reviewed the document), this program made me page through ALL 70+ pages and find where I had to sign… and each page refresh took 10-15 seconds, it was a horrible experience, it took over 20 minutes to complete! I love my DOCU signings, nothing easier!

PTON 8.84% - Well covered, my biggest concern is the number of “video workout at home” competitors I’m seeing advertised recently. That’s the only reason this one isn’t a larger % of my portfolio based on their growth.

FLGT 6.72% - Well here it is, the outlier, I’ve written some numbers up before in post# 74761.

Yes, this stock was up 112% in Jan, and if you include the first day of Feb, at it’s peak it was up over 200% YTD. Today at the high point it was up 45%, ended up dropping back to “only” up an additional 25% today. I have to assume this stock is being boosted by being a relatively highly shorted stock and catching some of the Reddit/wallstreetbets wave. That said, the growth here has just been nothing short of spectacular. The company was averaging 50% YOY rev growth from their core business pre-Covid, then they pivoted into Covid testing and have scaled the number of tests they perform by 50 times, 5000%!

Q2 YOY rev growth of 113%
Q3 YOY rev growth of 920% !!
Est Q4 rev growth of 2000%+ !!!

I initially only took a 2% position, and thought I would only hold for a few months, now, with the slow rollout of vaccines, the absolute explosion of cases and testing since the holidays, and the new mutated Covid variants that keep showing up with different resistances to the vaccines, I think we’re in for a LONG haul of testing that won’t abate quickly, this will be a permanent part of FLGT’s business. When I realized this, my position had already grown to 3%, I increased it to 4%, and it did the rest. At today’s high, it was over 9% of my portfolio, ended the day over 8%. I have a decision to make, at most I’ll trim it down to 6%, but may continue to hold it all as this next report will make ZM’s Covid growth look pedestrian.

ZM 5.03% - More than well covered, I like this size for ZM at this time.

OTRK 5.00% - Another that may be getting a boost from Reddit/WSB looking for highly shorted stocks, this one’s also doubled from around Thanksgiving to it’s high last week. I know others have cautioned about the CEO here, but I’m just following the numbers and like the growth, execution, and opportunity I’m seeing. Will keep as keen of an eye as I have on it, especially the next report.

AYX\ESTC\MDB\OKTA 3-ish% each - Been keeping about 3% positions of some companies I still really like, but where maybe growth has slowed some for now. If they make a run up, I’ll sell it back down to 3% and have that cash to reinvest, like MDB did over the past year, it grew to a 6% position at one point. I’ve realized some companies I don’t want to sell completely out of, and this keeps them on my radar. I also think I don’t want to go much over 20% in my top conviction stocks, and like the other allocations I have, but don’t want to have too much cash, so park the 12% here. This tactic may change over time.

That’s about it, blessings, stay safe, and good luck to us all!