Forecast April PCE (May 30) from April Retail Sales (May 15)

[mostlylong]

@mostlylong

I get a forecast of about +0.4% PCE MoM for April (again, real dollars, seasonally adjusted). There is a cloud of PCE values near ARS = -0.12%, so obviously there will be uncertainty associated with this estimate, say a range of PCE MoM % of about 0.2% to +0.6%.

Actual value from BEA for April is +0.2%, at lower end of range above. This is a nominal number, real PCE for April is +0.1%, so GDP is barely growing in April from consumer spending (there are other components of GDP).

personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).