PCE Inflation through July 2023

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Today numbers for PCE Inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, were released.

Full Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (PCEPI) | FRED | St. Louis Fed)
Jan index value 125.898
Jul index value 127.445
6 month % change 1.23%
6 month % change, annualized 2.47%

through Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul
6 month % change, annualized 4.16%, 3.61%, 3.48%, 3.51%, 3.83%, 2.47%

Index ex Food, Energy (Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed)
Jan index value 126.422
Jul index value 128.579
6 month % change 1.71%
6 month % change, annualized 3.44%

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More importantly, the Fed got what it wants, an uptick in unemployment. Take the prole’s bargaining power away, and their wages can be cut.

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