Game of nuclear chicken

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2022/8/5/russia-ukra…

Kyiv and Moscow have accused each other of striking Europe’s largest nuclear site, causing a reactor stoppage.

Russian troops have occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine since the early days of their invasion and Kyiv has accused them of storing heavy weapons at the site. Moscow, in turn, has accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the plant.

“Three strikes were recorded on the site of the plant, near one of the power blocks where the nuclear reactor is located,” Ukraine’s state-run nuclear power plant operator Energoatom said in a statement.

“There are risks of hydrogen leakage and radioactive spraying. The fire danger is high.”

Russia has accused the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy of committing acts of “nuclear terrorism” after attacks hit close to the Zaporizhzhia power plant.

“Ukrainian armed units carried out three artillery strikes on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the city of Energodar,” the Russian defense ministry said in a statement.

“We are urging international organizations to condemn the criminal actions of the Zelenskyy regime, which is carrying out acts of nuclear terrorism.”

Ukraine has accused Russian forces of conducting attacks near a nuclear reactor at the Zaporizhzhia power plant in the country’s south, which has been occupied since the early days of the invasion.

“Three strikes were recorded on the site of the plant, near one of the power blocks where the nuclear reactor is located,” Energoatom, Ukraine’s state-run operator of the country’s nuclear power plants, said in a statement.

“There are risks of hydrogen leakage and radioactive spraying. The fire danger is high,” it said, adding that initially there were no casualties.

The Russian-installed administration of the nearby occupied city of Enerhodar blamed Kyiv, saying Ukrainian artillery fire had cut the lines at the plant.

Jeff

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Kyiv and Moscow have accused each other of striking Europe’s largest nuclear site, causing a reactor stoppage.

Russian troops have occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine since the early days of their invasion and Kyiv has accused them of storing heavy weapons at the site. Moscow, in turn, has accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the plant.

The Russian-installed administration of the nearby occupied city of Enerhodar blamed Kyiv, saying Ukrainian artillery fire had cut the lines at the plant.

Jeff

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We have a thousand years of Russian lies. I put my money on Russian troops being responsible.

Jaak

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Back in April, there were numerous news reports of Russian soldiers succumbing to radiation sickness when they were in the vicinity of Chernobyl. What ever happened to the follow up reports? Where is the documentation from the IAEA or other international health agencies confirming the radiation illness cases? I’m not saying it was all a hoax, but I haven’t seen any confirmation either.

https://discussion.fool.com/russia39s-nuclear-terror-35084068.as…

One American professor crunched some numbers on the known radiation levels around Chernobyl, and calculated it was unlikely anyone received enough radiation to cause serious illness. These were just some rough calculations, but again, where is the follow up on the investigation of the radiation illness and death?

https://www.ans.org/news/article-3816/update-on-ukraine/

The Zaporizhzhia power plant is somewhat different because it is operational, and Chernobyl has been shut down for many years. Shelling Zaporizhzhia with artillery or otherwise damaging buildings and equipment is crazy, and serves no military purpose, as far as I can see. There is a real cause for concern, if some field commander thinks it would be a good idea to start bombing or shelling the plant.

Russia is clearly in the wrong in this war, but either side is capable of using fear tactics when it comes to anything nuclear or radioactive. Be mindful of the propaganda tactics and skeptical of things like the news stories of Russian soldiers dying of radiation poisoning back earlier this year.

  • Pete
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All that may be true. That said, it is not unknown for forces to occupy schools, hospitals and religious building because of the hesitancy of the opposition to bomb them. The same might be true of nuclear facilities. It is plausible for the Russians to store equipment there because of the hesitation Ukrainians would show about hitting it. It is also plausible that, with their new accurate artillery, the Ukrainians would take pot shots. Of course, either or both sides could be lying and, without seeing it first hand, I wouldn’t place bets on either version.

Jeff

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It is plausible for the Russians to store equipment there…

It’s more than a depot. The Russians have been firing from the cover of the Zaporizhzhia station since mid-July at Nikopol,(Ukrainians) on the west bank of the Dnipro River. The Ukrainian military can’t defend because of the position of Russian rocket launchers.
The Russian military has parked Grad multiple rocket launchers between the reactor buildings, to protect them from retaliatory strikes. As is the norm with Russia artillery, they fire randomly hitting homes, hospitals, vehicles, putting craters in vegetable gardens, and starting random fires.

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It’s worth it.

“Freedom!” “Principles!”

Tons of American arms sales…yeah Mr Z, go fight the war - but don’t ask us why we didn’t send all the weapons you asked for - noooooo we aren’t using you to keep this war going because we want Putin to be drained a bit because we don’t like him. Far be it from us to have anything other than pure hearts.

Oh, and “ideals!” means your people can’t gave a Big Mac. But China - despite Uyghur genocide - well, they contribute to our S/P multiple so yeah, they get Big Macs - and everything else.

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Back in April, there were numerous news reports of Russian soldiers succumbing to radiation sickness when they were in the vicinity of Chernobyl. What ever happened to the follow up reports? Where is the documentation from the IAEA or other international health agencies confirming the radiation illness cases? I’m not saying it was all a hoax, but I haven’t seen any confirmation either.

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I think it is naïve to think Russia would publish anything about their soldiers getting sick. They left the area pretty fast. IAEA and other health organizations do not have access to these soldiers.

Jaak

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Back in April, there were numerous news reports of Russian soldiers succumbing to radiation sickness when they were in the vicinity of Chernobyl. What ever happened to the follow up reports?

Here’s the thread on that from this spring:
https://discussion.fool.com/russia39s-nuclear-terror-35084068.as…

Describing radiation levels as “normal”, the agency’s director general Rafael Grossi said: “There have been some moments when the levels have gone up because of the movement of the heavy equipment that Russian forces were bringing here and when they left. We are following that day by day.”

But as an International Atomic Energy Agency mission arrived at the site, director general Rafael Grossi says radiation levels are “at normal”…


Some dose levels at Chernobyl:
Background                          1   millisievert/year
Roads near Chernobyl excavations    1.6
At Chernobyl excavations            6.5
Worker dose limit                  20

DB2

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The head of the United Nations’ atomic watchdog says Russia’s temporary takeover of the Chernobyl site was “very, very dangerous” and raised radiation levels but those have now returned to normal.

“The situation was absolutely abnormal and very, very dangerous,” Rafael Grossi told reporters on Tuesday as he arrived at the sarcophagus that covers the nuclear reactor’s radioactive remains.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/26/russian-takeover-of…

Jaak

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These were just some rough calculations, but again, where is the follow up on the investigation of the radiation illness and death?

At the time I assumed this was most likely Ukrainian propaganda meant to the point out the stupidity of the Russians digging trenches in the exclusion zone. But if it wasn’t–or even if it was–Russian infantry were sent into the field with expired field rations, outdated maps, and 1960s vintage equipment.

There is zero point zero chance Russia is going to provide dosimeters or any follow up medical screening for soldiers who have a high chance of being dead at this point. And even if they did–which they won’t-- they would never, ever release those results to the West. They haven’t even released casualty figures since March, and those were clearly bogus.

Bottom line, you’re not ever going to see a follow up study.

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Russian troops have occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine since the early days of their invasion and Kyiv has accused them of storing heavy weapons at the site.

IIRC a decade or so ago some other rouge nation was duking it out with US.

Since we had superior air power they tried parking a tank next to a church figuring we wouldn’t hit the tank with one of our laser guided missiles because the resulting exploding tank would damage the church.

They underestimated US.

We used a practice laser guided missile (filled with concrete where the explosive would be in a real missile)

The concrete filled laser guided missile destroyed the tank without an explosion.