GDP un-growth

GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal…


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“ungrowth”? I still haven’t gotten use to a jet engine “unstart”.

So, when do the talking heads start nattering about a “second half recovery”?


GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter

msn was a little sloppy with that - but I doubt many other outlets are going to be nuanced either.…

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter, the equivalent of an 0.9 percent annual rate of decline, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The 0.2 percent decline followed a contraction of 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year — meaning that by one common but unofficial definition, the U.S. economy has entered a recession a mere two years after it emerged from the last one.

It is accurate to say that the GDP decreased by 0.2% in the 2nd quarter. When annualized, we are on pace to fall by 0.9%. It always seems silly to me that we measure such a volatile stat on an annual basis.


This is a very small drop. It’s pretty close to what the Federal Reserve was hoping for.…

**Most economists still don’t think the economy meets the formal definition of a recession, which is based on a broader set of indicators including measures of income, spending and employment. The G.D.P. data itself will also be revised several times in the months ahead....**

**A deceleration, on its own, isn’t necessarily bad news. The Federal Reserve has been trying to cool off the economy in a bid to tame inflation...** [end quote]

If the next few months show that inflation is subsiding, the Fed will have threaded the needle.

If GDP drops more in 3Q2022 and inflation does not subside, that will indicate stagflation. In that case, the Fed will be forced to raise the fed funds rate more which could cause more slowing.



one common but unofficial definition, the U.S. economy has entered a recession

If US Employers add 372,000 jobs in July as they did in June, it’s impossible to understand that the economy is in recession.

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