Geopolitical risks

“China’s support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine was clearly the catalyst for capital to leave China,” said George Magnus, an associate at the China Centre at Oxford University and former chief economist for UBS.

But geopolitical tension is not the only reason behind the exodus. The rate hike in the United States and China’s strict Covid-related lockdowns have also played a role in scaring investors.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/investing/china-capital-outfl…

But geopolitical tension is not the only reason behind the exodus. The rate hike in the United States and China’s strict Covid-related lockdowns have also played a role in scaring investors.

China also has a big demographic problem - largely but not entirely a result of 35 years of the “one child” policy - and keeping young people apart for two years (and counting) can’t possibly help with that.

China also has a big demographic problem - largely but not entirely a result of 35 years of the “one child” policy…

And when that one child preference was male, a lot of females were orphaned or aborted. This, in turn, creates a contemporary imbalance in the male/female ratio (a couple years ago, it was 105 males to 100 females), which induces all sorts of other behavioral problems in the population, including excessive competition for mates and domestic violence and stalking when a woman breaks up with a man.

Pete

China also has a big demographic problem - largely but not entirely a result of 35 years of the “one child” policy…

And when that one child preference was male, a lot of females were orphaned or aborted. This, in turn, creates a contemporary imbalance in the male/female ratio (a couple years ago, it was 105 males to 100 females), which induces all sorts of other behavioral problems in the population, including excessive competition for mates and domestic violence and stalking when a woman breaks up with a man.
Further than that. A couple decades I read of a senior executive of a company in China who (uncharacteristically for senior executives at the time) actually went to a shopping mall himself and did some people-watching.

He reported that he mostly observed two sorts of family groups with young children:

  1. A little girl with one or two parents, buying what the family needed

  2. A little boy with two parents and usually at least three grandparents, with the grandparents insisting on buying what the little boy wanted.

From that he went back to his company and started implementing policies to make it more friendly to single women - including single mothers - as employees, because he concluded that in a few years a large share of the young men would be spoiled brats unfit for positions of responsibility (and the young women wouldn’t want to put up with them either).

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