German government fails along with French

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Germany and France are the core of the European Union. It’s a real concern when their governments fail within a month of each other.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/europe/germany-confidence-vote-scholz-snap-election.html

German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europe

Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote, deepening the political turbulence in one of the continent’s most powerful economies.

By Christopher F. Schuetze and Jim Tankersley, The New York Times, Dec. 16, 2024

Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the German Parliament on Monday, a defeat that effectively ended the increasingly unpopular government he has led since 2021 and set the stage for elections early next year…

The confidence vote, in the same month that the French government fell, deepens a crisis of leadership in Europe at a time of mounting economic and security challenges…

Germany and France, traditionally the two most influential countries in the European Union, are mired in debates over how best to revive their struggling economies, breach growing social divides, ease voter anxieties over immigration and buttress national defense…

They are also vexed by their economic relationship with China, which has grown into a formidable competitor for many of their most important industries but has not become the booming consumer market for European products that leaders long envisioned… [end quote]

Both Germany and France have economic problems at the same time that Russia is threatening Ukraine so they will have greater defense spending.

The Wall Street Journal published a truly scary article on the strengthening axis of autocratic countries and the threat of World War 3.

https://www.wsj.com/world/has-world-war-iii-already-begun-16fb94c9

Has World War III Already Begun?

An axis of autocracies led by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is challenging the democratic world order

By Yaroslav Trofimov, The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 13, 2024

…
With Russia’s war on Ukraine nearly three years old, the Middle East ablaze on multiple fronts and tensions building up in East Asia, conflicts once thought to be disconnected have merged into what could be the opening shots of a third world war…

Today, Russia and China are revisionist powers dreaming of past imperial glories, seeking to build or restore their spheres of influence and redress what they perceive as historical injustices, such as the loss of Ukraine or Taiwan. To this axis, and to its lesser clients from Venezuela to Belarus, the so-called “rules-based international order” is merely a tool to disguise American domination. They believe that rolling back Western political and economic influence, and Western-promoted norms such as liberal democracy, is only natural given the shrinking share of Western democracies in the global economy and population…

China is outpacing the U.S. when it comes to military production and America’s defense-industrial base is unable to meet the needs of the U.S. and allies. … Three of the four revisionist autocracies—Russia, China and North Korea—already possess nuclear weapons, while the fourth, Iran, is only weeks away from a nuclear breakthrough should it choose to obtain the bomb… [end quote]

This is a long article with many details about how the U.S., by individually sanctioning these countries, has driven them into synergistic relationships.

If the EU falls apart, South Korea is in turmoil and the U.S. abandons NATO at the same time as the autocratic countries are strengthening their mutual support… the national security picture isn’t pretty.

Wendy

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Do stupid things, get punished! I don’t know about France but the German Green Policies were a disaster in the making. Ideology should not trump macro economics. German auto industry falters? Tesla makes hay. Diess was fired for trying to emulate Testa. VW is paying the price. Not all that different from American and Japanese car makes that don’t want to get on the EV bandwagon. It was a realistic enough position to take a decade ago but not now, that EV technology has Crossed the Chasm and battery prices are plummeting

The Captain

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The new Axis of Evil.

DB2

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And to our north…

Canada’s finance minister resigns as unpopular Trudeau faces biggest test of his political career
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/canadas-finance-minister-resigns-as-unpopular-trudeau-faces-biggest-test-of-his-political-career/ar-AA1vXZtd?ocid=BingNewsSerp
The stunning move raised questions about how much longer the prime minister of nearly 10 years can stay on in his role…

Trudeau’s popularity has plummeted due to concerns about inflation and immigration.

DB2

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Looking at the Middle East, Hamas struck back in October 2023 with the goal to “change the entire equation and not just have a clash” with Israel.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/world/middleeast/hamas-israel-gaza-war.html
The entire equation has now changed, just not in the way Hamas intended. They did mean to cause regional upheaval, but not the unraveling of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” Israel’s encirclement tried by Iran. Yet that’s exactly what it did.

DB2

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throwing this out - Germany moves to developing nukes. With Trump back, the Germans can’t depend on the American nuclear umbrella. They see Ukraine.

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In Syria people are asking how can a country with so many entrenched minorities put together a government that makes all the minorities feel safe and protected.

The system used in France and Germany provides a model. Rather than a two party system, they have multiple parties. Often that means coalitions of those parties are necessary to form a government. Presumably minority parties get concession from a major party to join their coalition.

This can be not so easy and makes for conflicts and tension. But more voices are recognized in government.

As for the Green party problem, voters need to be educated on the tradeoffs. Once again you can have a green economy any time you are willing to pay for it. But not if lowest cost is your priority. And this does impact commerce, jobs, participation in export markets etc. Not a surprise. Do voters know what they are voting for?

I’m surprised that in the States we have so many who vote for their party candidate regardless of their policies. And so often we have half a dozen pending issues. How do you find candidates who represent your views? Better to vote for party candidate and hope they work it out. Amazing. Not the way it is supposed to work.

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I assume you are referring to nuclear weapons, not peaceful nuclear power plants. Germany should start building power plants on a big scale, but they won’t, despite the shortcomings of the very expensive Energiewende renewable energy program.

Germany will not build nuclear weapons either. There are several reasons for this, but here’s just one.

_ Pete

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That would be quite a stretch; the Germans can’t even abide nuclear power plants.

DB2

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Yes, during the cold war, Nato went through a phase where nuclear deterrence was thought more cost effective than soldiers on the ground in Europe. Germany realized they were ground zero in the implied nuclear conflict. They became active in the ban the bomb movement with lots of demonstrations. Hence a well established fear of nuclear (in spite of a long tradition of an educated population and strong technology).

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It wasn’t so much the cost effectiveness but rather the sheer size of the Soviet army, some two million more soldiers than the US had. US forces in Germany would serve as a tripwire if the Soviets pushed through the Fulda Gap. NATO/US forces would fall back to France, and tactical nuclear weapons would have been used to stop/slow the Soviets.

DB2

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DB2

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Following the collapse of coalition talks between the Austrian People’s Party (OVP) and the Social Democratic Party (SPO), President Alexander van der Bellen has tasked Herbert Kickl with negotiating a government formation with the People’s Party.

In his address, Austria’s President referenced his changed position on cooperating with the Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) chief, according to Der Standard. In Austria, talks on forming a government broke down last Saturday between the OVP and the SPO after the NEOS liberal party unexpectedly withdrew from the three-party coalition discussions the day before.

DB2

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With Germany moving toward the right there is the possibility of the election of Alice Weidel as chancellor.
What do we know about her.

She would try to be a strong leader like Margaret Thatcher.
She is willing to leave the EU; upending economic/political alliances in Europe.
She will not be a puppet to US interests.
She wants to reform the wasted spending within the German defense department.
So if elected she could be difficult to work with as she has strong opinions.
Or do I have it backwards. Will relations with the US could be difficult due to mercurial volatile personalities of the president-elect and his #1 advisor Musk?

The 45-year-old is raising two sons with a Sri Lankan-born woman, a filmmaker, and speaks fluent Mandarin, having done a doctorate in economics in China. A west German leading a party that is strongest in the former communist East, she worked for Goldman Sachs and Allianz Global Investors and as a freelance business consultant before entering politics.

Her status in the party cost Weidel her friendship circle, prompting the family to move towns, she told Weltwoche.

An economic liberal, Weidel claims late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her role model and wants Germany to push for a Brexit-style referendum on EU membership if it is unable to sufficiently reform the bloc to fix its “democratic deficit”.

A climate change sceptic, she wants to lower taxes, end the minimum wage, slim down the state and end the costly shift to a carbon neutral economy.

She has also called for much tighter restrictions on immigration, tapping into a well of discontent in Germany with the large-scale arrivals from the Middle East in recent years.

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Regarding your question about leaving the EU: It’s really a simple calculation. Germany does not need the EU to survive; however, the reverse is very much the case. Nevertheless, the EU behaves as if it is exactly the opposite. They act as if we Germans have to put our vital interests aside in order not to endanger the “European project.” This is a grotesque distortion. Either the EU learns to take our national interests into account, or it will be gone.

The United States is undoubtedly a unique global superpower that has spread its vast influence worldwide. This is what we usually call an empire. However, it is a strange empire: an empire that rules the world from Monday to Wednesday but doesn’t want to do so again from Thursday to Sunday. This is the eternal battle between expansionists and isolationists that has probably been raging since the independence of the U.S.

That makes it a bit difficult for other nations, especially for us Germans. On the one hand, the American leadership complains, for example, about Germany’s energy policy, which—in geopolitical views, this is self-explanatory—wants to come to an agreement with Russia. What kind of wild anger did the construction of Nord Stream ignite on the American side? How dare we.

The many wars of the last 30 years, in Europe, in the Middle East, we were expected to participate in all of them at the request of the U.S. But why should we?

You must know that we have probably the most inefficient armed forces in the world. It almost doesn’t matter which country would attack us; we’d be defeated by almost everyone.

Astonishingly, we already spend over 50 billion euros on the defense budget every year. That’s at least two-thirds of the Russian defense budget. This situation is truly surreal. We can no longer afford to spend so much money on so little. Yes, an AfD-led government will significantly increase the defense budget, but we will also use the money more wisely.

====================
sources:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-12-07/german-far-right-afd-leader-is-chinese-speaking-lesbian-economist

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Because you (Europe) get most of your energy from those “bad places” around the world. Meanwhile, due to massive investment over decades, the USA is nearly self sufficient when it comes to energy.

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Some perspective -

Then again, one can rapidly go from Elon’s soulmate to being thrown under the bus, as we just witnessed in the UK:

More on Weidel:

Alice Weidel, the national party’s co-chair, has said she sees May 8, the date on which Germany was freed from the Nazis, as the anniversary of the defeat of her country rather than its liberation. In addition, some state chapters of the AfD as well as its youth organization have been certified as right-wing extremist by a German intelligence service.

An AfD politician in the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, drew criticism several days ago after congratulating Putin on his re-election. Tillschneider praised Putin for having “ensured stability and prosperity in Russia” in recent years.

Weidel’s co-chair of the AfD, Tino Chrupalla, attended a reception at the Russian embassy last May despite the Russian war against Ukraine.

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Can’t help but wonder how much USian PTB will interfere with the Canadian elections? We know they don’t care about laws, or accepted norms of behavior. TFG has been denigrating Canada as a “51st state”, and the PM as “Governor”. Why not defy Canadian campaign laws and pour tens of millions into USian style smear campaigns to get their guy’s party elected, and make the joking narrative a defacto reality? Then the chatter about the US and Canada tossing Mexico out of the USMCA can be a reality. After all, while the PM has surrendered, the Mexican President has refused to toe the line.

Steve

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“Ripped from the news wire”…I said to Tim, years ago, that whatever tenuous claim to Canadian citizenship I may have, would be pointless, because Canada is too rich in resources to escape the US’ grip forever. The guy in this interview says the US should wait until after the election, then start negotiating with the new guy with a mandate. I submit that the US PTB will not wait, but work, starting yesterday, to make the Canadian election a sure thing.

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Funny thing, patriotism. Mexicans and Canadians had mostly buried their rational reasonable hatred of their eternally imperialistic neighbor, but the new dude clearly does not know that history. Nations remember being invaded, dismembered, and egregiously bullied.

KABOOM will happen if incoming POTUS and henchmen keep up their blather.

d fb

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Presumably, Canada would not just be single state.
At a minimum 10 states for the 10 provinces.
Each with 2 senators.
Not sure the new guy would want 20 senators voting like those socialist Canadians…

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