Global-e Online Q1 2023 Results

Global-e Online reported 1st quarter results on Monday before the open. They beat and raised although the full year forecast was still below expectations and the market didn’t respond well accordingly.

Overall what I liked:-

  1. Strong growth delivered even though Q1 was lapping the Flow acquisition YoY in 2022
  2. Expanded GM profitability and adjusted EBITDA margin
  3. Customer traction
  4. Strength of US outbound and continued de-risking of the UK business concentration
  5. Relationship with Shopify
  6. Performance of Borderfree acquisition
  7. Continued increase in the “Service Revenues” portion
  8. Statements on AI

What I didn’t like so much:-

  1. Slow progress in the Shopify roll out
  2. Continued uncertainty over the margin of Shopify business
  3. The looming lapping of the Borderfree acquisition in Q3 which will pressure growth compares (Borderfree’s contribution after acquisition was ~10% of revenues)
  4. The potential but risk in the re-acceleration of the business from Shopify roll out in Q4

Q1 2023 Financial Results:-

  • GMV1 in the first quarter of 2023 was $703.9 million, an increase of 55% year over year

  • Revenue in the first quarter of 2023 was $117.6 million, an increase of 54% year over year, of which service fees revenue was $50.4 million (up 58%) and fulfillment services revenue was $67.3 million (up 52%)

  • In Q1 2023, U.S. outbound revenue was up 100% year-over-year, (driven also by the U.S. biased of the Borderfree portfolio). Revenue from the U.S. rose to 48% of the company’s total from 37% a year ago. Revenue from the UK dropped to 32% of the total from 37% a year ago.

  • Non-GAAP gross profit in the first quarter of 2023 was $48.7 million, an increase of 63% year over year. GAAP gross profit in the first quarter of 2023 was $45.9 million

  • Non-GAAP gross margin in the first quarter of 2023 was 41.4%, an increase of 230 basis points from 39.1% in the first quarter of 2022, (and up from 41.3% in Q4). GAAP gross margin in the first quarter of 2023 was 39.0%

  • Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2023 was $14.5 million (a 12.3% adjusted EBITDA margin) compared to $3.3 million in the first quarter of 2022 (a 4.3% margin)

  • Net loss in the first quarter of 2023 was $43.1 million

  • Looking ahead, the company sees full-year revenue of $562M to $590M (40% growth) vs. a prior view for $557M to $584M and $578M consensus. Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $77M is anticipated vs. $66M to $74M prior view. Q2 revenues are forecasted for $125m to $130m, (46% growth YoY and 8% growth QoQ)

Commentary of note:-

  • “Penetration efforts to APAC and the Middle-East remained on-track and continuing to bear fruit. While the share of GMV coming out of this new outbound market is still relatively low, transaction volumes have grown by almost four times year-over-year.”

  • “We have expanded our presence in Europe, including people on the ground in Italy and Scandinavia, and continue to enhance our presence in Australia and Japan.”

  • “In Q1 we saw renowned brands like Carbon 38, Doen, Psycho Bunny, Maui & Sons, Lulu’s, Jigsaw and Rebecca Minkoff go live, as well as the merchandise store of the Mercedes AMG Petronas Formula 1 team. We continued our push into APAC with brands such as Charles and Keith, Porcelain Skin, and By Invite Only going live in Singapore, Unreal Fur going live in Australia, Objcts.IO going live in Japan and more. In parallel, we launched our first Portuguese merchant called [indiscernible] and continued to onboard celebrity brands and social first brands such as Kylie Cosmetics by Kylie Jenner, Maison Francis Kurkdjian, part of the LVMH group, who’s Baccarat Rouge perfume was the number-one perfumed shared by influencers on TikTok in 2022.”

  • “During the quarter, we also continued our efforts to expand our business with existing merchants. Notable examples would be numerous expansions of our engagement within the LVMH group. We have two additional brands; Repossi and Pucci joining the platform, Kenzo going live and Bulgari turning on an additional batch of close to 30 markets, which are now operated by Global-e. Another notable example would be Disney Europe which now utilizes Global-e to support sales to the United Kingdom, one of its top global market”.

  • “Regarding our partnership with Shopify, on the direct integration side we continue our work on adding new features to our native integration as well as providing support for Shopify’s new Checkout extensibility. In parallel, we continue to migrate merchants from our legacy third-party integration into the new native one and add newly signed merchants directly onto the native plug-in as we go. On the white-label solution front, we continue to work in close collaboration with Shopify’s teams towards the roll-out of Shopify Markets Pro, a fully-integrated merchant of record solution intended for merchants looking to scale to new markets quickly and easily. Markets Pro is currently in early access mode in the U.S. and we are seeing a high level of interest from merchants, and encouraging initial results from those early access merchants that have been going live since September of last year. Along with Shopify, we believe Markets Pro remains on track to general availability in the U.S. in this summer, to be followed by the UK later in the year.”

  • “Finally, I would like to mention a different and exciting aspect of our activity, which is the potential of using AI to improve our service levels and potentially increase the efficiency of our operations. We have already been using machine learning and AI models for several years now, helping our teams to automate large-scale recurring tasks such as the classification of large product catalogs for duties and taxes for example. More recently, our internal AI Task Force has conducted several proof-of-concept exercises in various functions of the company, demonstrating some of their potential.”