Global primary energy consumption

[Traditional biomass is things such as firewood and dung.]

Oil            32.2%
Coal           28.0
Nat gas        25.4
Trad biomass    7.0
Hydro           2.7
Nuclear         1.8
Wind            1.2
Modern biomass  0.7
Solar           0.7
Other           0.5

DB2
Net zero is a long ways away

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Bob,

The estimate is 2025 will see a global turning point in CO2 production going into decline.

The chart shows a wedge opening up as alternative energies particularly wind and solar become cost efficient.

It may, but I could also can see it turning up again with growth in India and, later, Nigeria.

As noted above, net zero is a long ways away.

DB2

Not likely, although it may grow more slowly. The EIA has new projections this month for the next several decades (up to 2050) showing increasing global fuel usage. Projections are in quads (quadrillion BTU).

               Increase
             2022 to 2050
Liquid fuels      42
Nat gas           44
Coal               6
Nuclear            7
Other            118

DB2

Ha! Very cute. I will take that bet, with odds against. Also for 2026, 2027, 2028, etc.

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Our group’s cockiness is entertaining.

Wind and solar power are booming in China and may help limit global carbon emissions far faster than expected, according to a new study.

The planet does not care about “rate”. It cares about “total emissions.” India is now the third largest emitter in the world, and achieved (dubiously) the highest emissions in the country’s history.

The planet does not care about “rate”. It cares about “total emissions”. China is opening more coal plants than ever, and has the highest CO2 emissions in its history.

The only thing that is going to stop the needle from going up is a cataclysmic recession which shuts factories down, or a plague which wipes humans from the earth.

1 Like

EU

US

India

China 1960 - 2021

China in 2021 about 11.5 million metric tons

My comment about China ramping up coal plants is old news. Goof do your research closer to your comments to keep up with the times.

snippet

The largest contributor to rising emissions was electricity generation. Power output from coal increased by 2% from a year ago, the report showed. Coal is the main source of energy in China and is widely used for heating, power generation and steelmaking.

The country has ramped up coal production since last summer when the worst heatwave and drought in decades hit hydroelectricity, the country’s second biggest source of power. Coal production surged 11% in 2022 from 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

further snippet

However, China still sees clean energy as its future. President Xi Jinping restated his vision for a “green” and “beautiful” China in February and called for an energy revolution to achieve carbon neutrality in the longer term.

Solar installations increased to a record 34 gigawatts (GW) in the first three months of the year, nearly tripling the previous high of 13GW in the same period of 2022, according to latest figures released by the National Energy Administration.

New wind power installations also reached a record high. The 10.4GW added in the three months to March 2023 was an increase of 32% over the period in 2022, the NEA figures showed.

These sources of power, including renewables and nuclear, exceeded 50% of China’s installed power capacity in the first quarter, overtaking fossil fuel-based capacity for the first time in history, the CREA analysts said.

“When low-carbon power growth matches — and then exceeds — the annual increase in electricity demand, the sector’s CO2 emissions will peak,” they said.

Separate google result

How much coal will China use in 2023?

In the second half, growth is expected to slow slightly, mainly due to recovering hydropower availability after last year’s drought. In total, we expect China’s coal demand in 2023 to grow by about 3.5% to 4 679 Mt, with demand from the power sector up 4.5% and demand from non-power uses growing by 2%.

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And the bottom line is that there has never been a year since monitoring began in 1959 when the carbon dioxide concentration has decreased.
Screenshot 2023-10-24 at 5.36.32 AM
DB2

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Looking at the primary energy sources over the decades.

      Oil+Coal+NatGas
         Percent
2022      85.4
2012      86.7
2002      84.3
1992      85.0
1982      84.1

DB2

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Those numbers answer the question the BBC asked recently:

DB2

I used a different source, and got similar numbers for world primary energy and fossil fuels.

World Primary Energy, Percent from Fossil Fuels
2022   81.8%
2012   86.1%
2002   85.8%
1992   86.5%
1982   89.5%

Looking at just the US, the following numbers are obtained…

US Fossil Fuels Percentage
2022   81.1%
2012   84.6%
2002   87.2%
1992   87.7%
1982   90.4%

Similar numbers for Europe. This is for all of Europe, not just the EU.

Europe Fossil Fuels Percentage
2022   71.1%
2012   76.0%
2002   79.7%
1992   82.3%
1982   87.5%

It should be noted, for world fossil fuel consumption, the percentage is staying about the same, but the total amount of fossil fuels is increasing, as the total primary energy use increases. For instance, in 2012, total fossil fuel consumption (oil + nat gas + coal) was 455 exajoules of energy. By 2022, that increased to 494 exajoules for the year.

  • Pete
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