Cross post snippet of mine from another board…

The salient text:

Non-quant stock tip of the day: deep in the money long dated call option on GOOGL (now at $2246)
Random pick: Jan 2024 $1300, current price around $1060-$1065, leverage about 2.1:1
When the Jan 2026 calls are listed, preferably on a calm day that prices are high, sell the Jan 2024 calls and buy Jan 2026 calls. (lowest strike you can get for the same money)
The theory is that, by Jan 2026, 3.6 years from now, you will have made a lot of money.
Wild speculation: multiple opportunities during this stretch to exit at over 25%/yr return compounded, possibly 30%+, which would count as having fun.

Unfortunately this costs over $106k per contract, and it’s option contracts with leverage, so it’s not exactly for everybody.
But they are about to do a 20:1 split in seven weeks so you can wait till then and get the equivalent position in smaller bites of about $5300 each.
The price probably won’t have soared that much by then, though who knows.

Of course, I’m often wrong. Check back in 2026.



I have doubled my already sizable position over the past few weeks (including another small batch today). Super confident this is going to work out well. My base case thesis is $375B in TTM earnings in 2 years time, with a multiple 6x + share buy backs should lead to a price of $3500 / share around that time. A more bullish case might be a $4000 target.

I don’t buy many options so I am just buying shares.


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