Grain and food shortages may come...

Based on the following linked chart showing who buys Ukrainian and Russian wheat, one can be almost 100% certain that there will soon be grain and/or food shortages in many areas of the globe:…

If US and Canadian farmers decide to sell to the highest bidder, expect serious inflation in the price of wheat and other grains in the coming months. That means everything from pasta to crackers will be pricier - exactly what we don’t need.

The disreputable Tyler Durden reports that Hungary has just banned export of its substantial wheat production, along with a prediction that a food-driven equivalent of 2011’s “Arab Spring” may be the logical result of what I call “Mad Man Putin’s Insane Ukrainian Adventure™.”

Per ZeroHedge:

Just hours after we reported that Russia effectively banned exports of fertilizers, moments ago Hungary - one of Europe’s most grain rich nations - has circled the wagons and realizing which way the wind is blowing, just announced that it will [be] banning all grain exports effective immediately, in a statement…
Expect wheat prices, already at record highs, to promptly double from here in the next few weeks as the world realizes the extent of the global food crisis that is coming. Our suggestion: buy flour, rice, barley and any other grains you can now, rather than waiting one month to buy them because you have to.…

I expect that DW will want to order an extra bag of flour, some cake mix, and pasta this week. I may try to fit a few extra loaves of sliced sandwich bread in the freezer. If all else fails, Smuckers ought to be able to supply enough peanut butter and jelly to keep my belly full until “Mad Man Putin’s Insane Ukraine Adventure™” comes to an end.

It seems we are cursed to live in “interesting times,” as Jeff often says. Others may call it a Fourth Turning or an Elliott Wave. Whatever you call it, we have witnessed too many insane men accede to leadership positions worldwide.

Vladimir Putin seems to be hell-bent on proving that he is more off-his-rocker than any crazy strong man in a century of particularly violent insanity.


The disreputable Tyler Durden reports that Hungary has just banned export of its substantial wheat production…

While it certainly doesn’t help the rest of Europe, it depends upon one’s definition of substantial.

Hungary exports some 2.4 million tonnes of wheat.…

The EU’s MY 2021/22 wheat harvest is estimated at 139.0 million tonnes

2.4/139 = 1.7%



Not surprisingly, I have not heard back from my Senator regarding my suggestion to reduce or suspend the fuel ethanol mandate, to make more cropland available for raising grain for human consumption.

…of course, my suggestion would leave the “JCs” who invested in fuel ethanol plants high and dry.

corn acreage in the United States has increased from a Government-mandated low of 60.2 million planted acres in 1983 to close to or exceeding 90 million since 2010. Much of this growth in area and production is a result of expanding ethanol production, which now accounts for nearly 40 percent of total corn use.…

Spring wheat generally needs to be planted in March. Corn is less cold tolerant and is generally planted later.



exactly what we don’t need.


Inflation will be coming down with central bank actions around the globe.

The biggest cause of inflation is the wealthy with far too much disposable income and low taxes.

We need to redistribute wealth for growth. Raising taxes on the wealthy would kill many birds with one stone.


Grain shortage may be good for your health, if it encourages you to check out a ketogenic or paleo diet. My baked goods use almond flour for the most part, and we have been essentially grain free for a couple of decades now. I find it less temperamental to bake with than using grain based flours and yeast.

That said, there are side effects to this type of diet: lower blood pressure, low triglycerides, higher HDLs…

even consuming grass fed or free range animal products

In the ME this may force a cultural overhaul away from Russian and Ukrainian wheat. For the Ukrainians it matters to me. But for the Russians this is an economic loss in the middle of what will be a long war.