The number of households using electric heat in Tennessee, North Carolina and South Carolina increased by about 20% from 2009 to 2020 , according to government data that survey a sample of households. The generating capacity of power plants in the region, meanwhile, has remained relativity flat…
The push to electrify household appliances and heating has changed consumption patterns and created regions where electricity demand now peaks in both summer and winter, according to Sanjeet Sanghera, head of grids and utilities at BloombergNEF.
In 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy launched the “Building a Better Grid” initiative, which will use $12.5 billion from the IIJA for grid reliability improvements. The IRA set aside $5 billion for direct loans for the construction, modification or repowering of generation and transmission facilities.
The wind, solar and grid additions alleviate problems for a region. The grid coming down into KY and the grids coming up into AL are major improvements that greatly add to TN’s electricity availability. The solar projects in the Carolinas free up a lot of energy for the region as well. The only region not getting a lot of resources is upper MT. There are plenty of resources be they coal etc in the region and a sparce population. Relatively speaking the area is getting resources as well. The grid along the edge of NV is interesting. That may well shore up all of CA.
Note TX has a separate grid from the rest of the contiguous states. There is some money there for TX but much less for the grid needs. OK and LA do get the money instead.
The grid from Canada to MA I believe is for Canadian hydro. The ME grid may be Canadian hydro as well.
The wind and solar are local and offset regional needs for electricity. With 80% of Americans living to the east of a line drawn up slight to the west of Houston, TX, you can see the wind and solar are needed in the east.
TN has the TVA which has the last built and operating nuclear plant in the US.
I would assume most grid loss is due to resistance. I^2r is costly. Presumably companies produce a bit more than they sell to make it available on demand.
What happens to unsold electricity? If it could be stored and used later there should be potential savings.
Electric cars and heat pumps push local power grids to their limits
Local power grids are threatening to become the bottleneck for the energy transition, an expert warns in the FAZ newspaper. According to estimates, their expansion would cost a three-digit billion sum…
But the energy industry is already warning that local power grids in cities and communities are reaching their performance limits. This is reported by the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” (FAZ). According to the report, the German Federal Network Agency is therefore planning to temporarily ration the power supply to heat pumps and charging stations in order to protect the distribution networks from overload.
Starting in 2024, grid operators are to be given the option of “intervening in a controlling manner in order to be able to maintain secure grid operation,” the newspaper quotes from a key points paper of the grid agency. However, car owners should not have their electricity cut off in the event of bottlenecks. Thomas Müller, the head of the grid agency, told the FAZ that there would be “no complete shutdown.” “We want to guarantee a minimum supply at all times.” The talk is of charging times of three hours to be able to charge electric cars so that they can cover a distance of 50 kilometers [30 miles].
Future Electricity Demand and Energy Needs Rising Rapidly
Sharp increases in peak demand forecasts and the potential for higher generator retirements are raising concerns for electric reliability over the next 10 years. NERC’s 2023 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) finds that industry faces mounting pressure to keep pace with accelerating electricity demand, energy needs and transmission system adequacy as the resource mix transitions.
“We are facing an absolute step change in the risk environment surrounding reliability and energy assurance,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis. “In recent years, we’ve witnessed a decline in reliability, and the future projection does not offer a clear path to securing the reliable electricity supply that is essential for the health, safety and prosperity of our communities.”
The assessment found growth rates of forecasted peak demand and energy have risen significantly since the 2022 LTRA, reversing a decades-long trend of falling or flat growth rates…Resource adequacy concerns arise throughout the next 10 years, stemming from higher demand, generator retirements and the potential for replacement resources to fall short of capacity and energy needs.
As a correction, there are dozens of operating nuclear reactors in the U.S. and only a few of them are operated by the TVA. We have four in Virginia- two at Surry and two at North Anna- and none of them are related to the TVA.
In fact, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) September 2022 report, the data centers and transmission networks that facilitate streaming accounted for 1-1.5% of the world’s total electricity consumption and 1% of the planet’s total energy-related GHG emissions (0.6% of total global emissions) in 2020.
That quote is from the summary/press release from NERC. Looking at their full report is more concerning because of how the defined ‘peak demand’. They write that “Peak demand is based on average peak weather conditions…”
This means that half of the peak events will be worse than those used in their projections, and the number of reliability issues is underestimated.
It is interesting how in this thread you suggest that the shift from fossil fuels to clean electric is growing so fast as to cause major problems to the grid while in another you indicate that EV demand is in rapid decline.
Rapid technological disruptions inevitably lead to imbalances. These represent market opportunities for clever entrepreneurs to solve. One solution to the grid problems is rapidly becoming available, virtual power plants.
The use of solar+storage is spreading rapidly in both residences and businesses. The increase in solar-charged batteries facilitates their organization into networks where utilities can tap into their energy (for a fee) during times of need. This is socialized energy distribution where energy consumers become producers.
It can also be part of an antipoverty program. Tesla added solar/batteries to low income homes in Australia to become part of a virtual power plant, which significantly reduced electricity costs to these households.
Given the lead time it takes to install new capacity or even grid changes, you expect utilities to monitor trends and constantly update plans.
How are they doing? The changes are not unexpected. Permitting and regulatory delays must be the big hang up. Funds are readily available. Some lead time for some equipment but i would guess under two years.
Semantic quibble here, but “a rapid decline in EV demand” (as stated) is similar to disinflation. A decline in EV numbers (not stated) would be like deflation.
During technological disruptions such imbalances are temporary. When cars replaced horses there were no doubt times when there were significant problems with adequate roads, fuel stations, repair shops etc. Blips in time.
Despite Drbob’s posts, the fact is that the transition away from fossil fuels is happening faster than most people expected. It may not be happening fast enough to avoid serious environmental consequences, but it is happening at a pace that the “establishment” did not anticipate.
For example, did anyone anticipate that in 2023 the best selling car in the world would be an EV that costs twice as much as the runner up?
Of course. This to shall pass. In the here an now, however, power (the Master Resource) disruptions are chaotic and can be deadly. The purpose of planning is to avoid them.
When grid operators are telling you there is trouble down the line it is worth listening to them (especially if they are underplaying the disruptions). Perhaps the transition needs to go more slowly rather than ‘faster than most people expected’ in order to maintain stability.
Of course one should be concerned about grid problems. The point though is that the transition away from fossil fuels is happening and is being driven by economics. Inadequacies in the grid will not be the end of the transition but will instead lead to improvements in the grid to accelerate the transition. Grid-level battery storage is getting cheaper and virtual power plants are already making significant impacts in Texas and California.
The great majority of major power outages in the past 20 years is associated with severe weather. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions are predicted by climate change. Perhaps the transition needs to go more quickly to maintain stability.
