What I or Quill or Lakedog do shouldn’t matter to you, only what you decide is appropriate to your own means, needs, goals, interests, and opportunities. Seriously. Don’t try mirror what anyone else does, no matter that they seem to be doing it successfully. When you’re at the hard, right-hand edge of a chart, we aren’t sitting there beside you to give you a nod or to stay your hand. All you’ve got is a chart that tells you what has already happened and an unseen counter-party to your trade who is smarter, faster, better capitalized, and better informed and who is just waiting to rip your guts out. So, as I’ve said before, you’ve got two choices: trade with 'em, or trade against 'em. That’s why your concern about ‘accumulation’ should pay off. But that fact tends of more use when making multi-day, multi-week trades. When you’re day-trading, it’s the rhythm of the tape that matters, and you try to get in and out on ‘stalls’ or at obvious points of support and resistance.
As for answering your question about how I trade gold, I’m going to decline, not because I don’t have an answer or wouldn’t be willing to share it, but because it won’t help you. You need to say to yourself. “I want to trade gold. What’s the best way for me to do that, given my means, needs, goals, interests, and opportunities?” When you’ve worked out an answer for yourself, put on a position or two, and then come back to the forum and explain your thinking. Now you’ll be able to build on what others might say, or reject what they might say, because you’ve got ‘skin in the game’ and you’re now on equal footing with them. Maybe less experienced, but battle-tested.
“I was looking at Barrick Gold ($GOLD), and it looks like a very tradable stock. What do you think?”
As Quill would say, " You missed the bus, Gus."
To see that this is likely so, go to BarChart, enter GOLD into the ticker box, and in the left-hand column under ‘Company’, select 'Competitors. Then flip-chart your way through the list, using your preferred chart template. Next, build a 1-yr chart with daily bars. Open the ‘Settings’ menu and select ‘%Change’. Save that as a chart template and then run through the charts for Barrick and its competitors again. Support is around (-40%) Resistance is around (-20%), and nearly all of them are bumping up against Resistance.
My takeawy is this. The time to have been shopping for the gold and silver miners was weeks to months ago. Yeah, if you did so then --as I did-- you suffered weeks to months of being underwater. But now those bets are paying off. Secondly, what are the PMs doing? Not much. They’re advancing a bit and then backing off. Only now are they getting back to their year ago highs. Until the metals break out dramatically --which they will eventually-- the miners aren’t going to break out, either. Also, according to them who know more about investing in the miners than I do, the miners typically lag the metals by a year.
So, this is my takeaway. Barrick’s’ fundamentals are solid. The company would be a good one to own. E.g., Simply Wall Street says of them, “Excellent balance sheet with moderate growth potential.” However, at present, the company isn’t “a trade”.
Just a quick comment. You should think about doing some backtesting as you are looking at Heikin-Ashi charts (you may even have them smoothed). Trend Channel trading is a well defined strategy, but I am only aware of such defined strategy and trading referring to channels formed with the actual price action (normal candles) not HA’s. But I have not seriously looked at that. If you have, would love to hear about it. But as far as doing it, while I totally agree with Arindam you need to “go forth” on your own perspective, please think carefully or paper trade.
Said to Doc "while I totally agree with Arindam you need to “go forth” on your own perspective, please think carefully or paper trade.
There is a third possibility, namely, bypassing paper-trading --which mostly just teaches bad habits-- and cutting bet sizes way, way down to a single or even fractional shares and keeping an honest, accurate trading journal.
As for back-testing, there are websites where it can be done, just as it can be done in a spreadsheet. But the tool I’d recommend is StockAnalyze, which is both a back-tester and scanner. There’s going to be a learning curve. But if a person has done any programming at all, they won’t have a problem writing and testing trading rules.
The key issue isn’t debating backtesting or paper trading. The issue I’m bringing up is that Doc is suggesting he is interested in possible channel trading but looking at Heikin Ashi candles when he says that. I’m not aware of using HA for defining channels, but I actually don’t specifically know how they hold up as such. Since they obliterate gaps, suspect it is not as good as price action determined channels. Simply suggesting he proceed with due diligence and tracking.
In what sense are HA bars not ‘price action’ and can’t be graphed in channels? Unless one is trading off of T&S, one is always dealing with abstractions.
Keep in mind this. “A way of seeing is also a way of not seeing.” That applies to your insistence on “actual prices”, which is a just conventional fiction, as much as HA bars, however much or little smoothed. One’s expectation should always be this. “Nothing works all the time.” But if “good-enough” gets one in and out of trades with ease and turns a profit --on average and over the long haul-- then the search for '“more precision” can go pound sand.
And if you object to abstractions like HA bars. then please explain why P&F can be so successful? As you yourself keep insisting, “tools are just tools”. So back off from discouraging others from exploring techniques that you haven’t thought of or don’t use.
I’m using HA, not smoothed. I do appreciate all input as I am learning. So far the profit is good and the losses are small, so I am happy. These discussions when two knowledgeable persons discuss something like the above are interesting and motivate me to read more so thanks…doc
Sorry to get you so stirred up. If you read my posts I was not saying not to try, I was stressing due diligence.
Heikin-Ashi are price action, but derivatives of price action. I never stated they couldn’t form channels, but since the opening price is always the middle of the previous bar, I suspect they give the appearance of channels more often then regular candles. I stated twice that I hadn’t dug deep into it and was only urging Doc to be aware. Smoothed or not, it’s a question with HA. I’d be curious if he compared trend candles and HA charts to see if it influenced his decisions, for better or worse.
For the record, I’m not discouraging exploration and I don’t object to “abstractions” like HA bars. As stated many times I use HA candles, that’s why I’m cautious about them potentially being misleading at times related to gaps and larger swings. Been burned before. In reality, one of my key signals is a price average EMA crossover with a MAHA average. Fairly abstract, but heavily used.
PS From a different thread, but CRWD did bounce off of the 20. Pierced it. I set a 128.16 limit and took 500 shares. Now to refine a controlled leg out.
Thanks. She’s a Wirehaired Pointing Griffon, or Griff. AKC Sporting breed that is a great bird dog, although I stopped hunting many decades ago. Her compensation for not fulfilling her breeding is living on water and chasing deer and geese off the properties. And chasing off coyotes, oh, she hates coyotes.
This is at about 4 or so months old so her beard filled out a lot more and she’s now almost 9. Wonderful family dogs and love kids. The grandkids learned to say Emmy before Grampa and always want to see her first when facetiming.
I second that! Thank you all for so much good info this week. I am learning and making money too, just not on the same scale as you guys. But I am content with my small trades for now. Making notes on every trade so that I learn from each one.