High-speed rail

Population density in the EU ranges from 18 to 1 657 people per km²
The population density, meaning the number of people per square kilometre (km²), was on average 109 persons per km² in the EU in 2022.

Mr Youtube handed me an example this morning. Going by the time scale on the video, about 15 seconds elapsed from when the Amtrak first became visible, and it was at the crossing. And it was only going 111mph. Imagine a train traveling 50% faster. Buford and his pickup will be tossed into the trees by the impact, when he tries to “beat the train”.

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Northeast Corridor line does not have many grade crossings. When you ride NJ Transit into Penn Station there is one in the tall grass north of Newark near Giants stadium.

On NJ Transit the usual grade crossing whistle–two longs a short and a long becomes two toot-toots.

The St. Louis Chicago route is running at 110 mph in 2024. One of the fastest in the US. There is a High Speed Rail Alliance with info on all the proposed lines and their needs.

https://www.hsrail.org/st-louis-corridor/

It’s running at up to 110 mph. Slower speeds in other sections of the track, coupled with stops along the way, means it still takes about five hours station-to-station from Chicago to St. Louis. Which is an average speed of about 60 mph. Instead of an hour and a half by air.

Still not likely to change travel patterns by any appreciable amount.

And MapQuest tells us that the driving time from downtown Chicago to downtown St. Louis is 4 hours and 20 minutes.

DB2

This is true of many, probably most, incremental changes.

For example,

I started composting my organic waste
I work from home a few more days
Georgia built a nuclear reactor
My neighbor went from ICE to EV
Inflation ticked down another 0.2%

but many incremental changes can add up.

Contest:
Who can think of more small changes that can add up to something bigger, and add to the list?

How about the additions to Brightline in Florida?

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What is the time from the downtown train stations to the airports. I’ll bet at least 30 min each. Mass transit times are probably published. And if you park at the airport add more time.

So avoid the airport all together. Just drive to Saint Louie – it’s faster than the train. And you have more flexibility when you get there.

DB2

What interstate with truck and cars traveling at 70+ mph has road crossings? Train rights of way are 19th century tech expected to handle 21st century technology.

I need to find something.
Me: (Cranking the modem) Mabel, Mabel are you there.
Mabel: What do you want you fool? Do you know what time it is?
Me: Yes I do. Connect me to Google.
Mabel: What are you going to ask that thing? Just ask me and I can probably tell you what you want to know.

And so the conflict of the centuries in technology goes.

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No grade crossings on the Interstates. All railroads get overpasses. Usually RR stays on flat land and highway goes over.

Yes, in most parts of the US, railroads were built in the age of the horse. They needed stations every 20 miles or so and railroads went downtown. That’s where the passenger depot was. And most business was on the river or lake or dock. So railroads went from city to city. That’s where the business was and passengers wanted to go.

Now days there are some intermodal terminals in the suburbs. And we worry about hazardous materials going through cities. Building exchange yards in the distant exurbs makes a lot of sense. But costly. Who pays?

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And the beat goes on…slowly.

$34 + $100 = $134 billion

As the state faces economic headwinds, California’s mega high-speed rail project between San Francisco to Los Angeles also faces major funding hurdles, the project’s CEO Brian Kelly told state lawmakers Tuesday…

In Tuesday’s hearing, Kelly told lawmakers the project has $28 billion dollars on hand, but noted it was still a few billion dollars short to complete the Central Valley segment between Merced and Bakersfield. Depending on how long the segment takes to finish, it could cost between $32 billion to $35 billion. Kelly said the project is hoping to fill the gap with federal funds. That segment of the project is expected to be fully operational between 2030 and 2033.

Project leaders estimate it will still need an additional $100 billion to finish what voters were originally pitched in 2008: a bullet train that runs between San Francisco and Los Angeles. A timeline on its completion has not been set…

DB2

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USian companies got used to “cost plus” government contracts, where near infinite delays and cost overruns are tolerated, and profits are guaranteed. They can’t perform anymore.

Boeing signed a fixed price contract for Air Force tankers. They claim they are losing their shirt.

#45 changed the Air Force One contract to fixed price. Boeing claims it is losing it’s shirt on that one too. Note, the tanker and AF One contracts are both using aircraft that Boeing has been building for decades. You would think they would be able to perform to cost and schedule by now, but nope.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/25/business/air-force-one-boeing-loss/index.html

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That was more PR than anything else. The original quoted price was a price Boeing could manage. What also needs to be considered are the number of “change orders” the govt requires after construction has begun. Specialized tech originally designed into the design/quote get changed a lot as newer tech replaces the original spec.

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What a joke! The Merced Bakersfield high-speed rail segment is worthless. A High-Speed Rail for $Billions and $Billions in the least populated region of California. The Rail line actually will stretch from northwest of Madera to Shafter, which means that riders from Bakersfield will have to drive 30min to get to the High-Speed rail, and that’s without morning traffic. CHSRA “does not have the money it needs to extend construction north into downtown Merced and south into downtown Bakersfield to provide a fully operational 171-mile line by a target date of 2030”

“One small step for nobody, and one giant leap if you are a raisin.” Bill Maher

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This is a great opportunity for infrastructure business in California.

I’ve been researching a company rumored to participate in large contracts for the highspeed rail. This company is pre-IPO and will be up-listing / Re-IPOing – here’s my write up on them.

Happy hunting.

Millennial Falcon

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A flash from the past, 2016…

https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/05/high-speed-rail-gets-a-four-year-delay-000123/
The first segment of California’s first-in-the-nation bullet-train project, currently scheduled for completion in 2018, will not be done until the end of 2022, according to a contract revision the Obama administration quietly approved this morning. That initial 119-mile segment through the relatively flat and empty Central Valley was considered the easiest-to-build stretch of a planned $64 billion line…

DB2

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Somehow never saw this thread but I seriously doubt this. But booked market this and assuming TMF still around and I am, will come back and apologise if true in 2033. Thought the cost by then will probably have gone up another 2 or 3 times

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I think I posted about all this almost ten years ago — the California High Speed Rail enabling legislation was designed to make big payoffs to the central valley dominant political party so as to gain sufficient support. That has now gotten, well, out of hand.

d fb

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And it started to implode nearly immediately. They should have canceled the whole thing years ago.