Summary
I haven’t had a great deal of time to write this month so this is going to be a short and sweet one. No major changes, plenty of volatility.
My background
Entrepreneur, ex-founder of SaaS & marketplace business, exited, now founder of horseplay.ventures, angel investing & building other startups. Tweeting here:
https://twitter.com/andrewwebster11
Performance
2022 > -30%
2021 >21%
2020 > 209%
2019 > 41%
March> -30%
March 2022 Portfolio
DDOG 20%
BILL 13%
Cash 12%
SNOW 12%
NET 11%
UPST 9%
ZS 7%
S 7%
MNDY 7%
SOLD
I have raised some cash by selling MNDY after a nice fightback over the past month. My conviction is certainly not as high so I wanted to rebalance that position once it came back to a somewhat respectable price but still a very bad play going so big on them at the start of the year.
I have also trimmed some S and UPST.
This allowed me to top up NET and build a cash position which I plan to spend over the next day or two but some of this will also be making its way to some crypto positions I plan to go long on.
My companies
Datadog Conviction remains high here. I think we have another 1-2 quarters of knock out results left before we may start to see a slow down and they start lapping some big 2021 numbers. I may well top up before the next run.
Bill.com Although we do have a large % of revenue aligned to non-SaaS transactions, it’s important to note, that these revenues are at least coming from SaaS customers, ala DDOG/SNOW, unlike a consumer play like UPST, so yes the numbers will be variable and harder to predict, but at least we know its not new business/customers that BILL have to go out and get each time. They seem to be firing on all cylinders and I plan to let this position ride for a while.
Snowflake So we had our first wobble in results back in March but this is a powerhouse of a company, and I can see them comfortably beating 80%+ growth this year. It may require a bit of patience over the next few quarters but I think we’ll be rewarded over the long term.
Cloudflare Lots of great product announcements that have been well documented on the board. I am in the camp that believes we will finally see the revenue edge over 60% during the second half of this year so I think they will hold their pricey multiple for a fair while yet.
Upstart Talk about a stock that tests your patience. They delivered stunning Q4 results and guidance, have made some promising news announcements since ala auto dealership deals and new banks signing yet the share price continues to get destroyed. Clearly they are the market’s favourite short toy, so respect to those who continue to live through that! I still believe they are worth holding but boy this is a tough hold.
Zscaler The board is very, very confident on ZS. There is a lot to like here but my spider sense is tingling a little bit with the light billings number. There have been quite a few cases on the board where we rued not actioning obvious red flags after the event, so I am certainly questioning if ZS has a potentially rough road ahead if the billings number doesn’t bounce back. I know the CFO explained it away saying it was because of government deals, but aren’t they notoriously slow sales cycles and thus could continue for another few quarters and subsequently hit revenue in a few quarters time? I would welcome any thoughts around this.
SentinelOne I thought they had a strong earnings report. The reason I am keeping the position fairly lightweight is because I want to see more durability in the numbers and how they will prosper with CRWD clearly performing well in their space.
Monday.com As I mentioned above I have got the position back to a size where if they outperform, I will enjoy some significant price appreciation and if they stall it will not destroy my yearly performance. I really like the product and the new workOS trend but the level of competition is a concern as well as how mission critical is it?
Watch List
MDB, CRWD - Last month I said “I may look to open up a pre earnings play like I did with bill.com, I have feeling both may surprise which could open the door to new positions.” Unfortunately I didn’t take this advice, out of the two I am very close to opening a position in MDB, this is a mission critical product with acceleration in a lot of their key metrics.
NVDA - I still can’t push myself to buy but it is a company I admire and could offer something different to the portfolio.
Thank you to all the contributors as ever.
Andrew