How does Upstart work? A revelation! (with a lot of help from WSM007’s post, and also a bunch of help from Crazy Czech). Please be aware that this is just my current understanding and it may all be incorrect. I welcome corrections.
It took me quite a while to figure this out, but I think I finally got it! There was a lot of worry that CRB is a 63% customer of theirs, and “What if they stop being a customer?” In other words, “This is HUGE customer concentration!” But that is looking at it totally wrong! Here’s the way it works, as far as I can figure it.
A. – Upstart originates most of the loans THEMSELVES on the Upstart platform using a loan platform agreement (about 63% of the loans last year) – but CRB actually ISSUES the loans for them, because CRB is a bank, and Upstart isn’t. So CRB isn’t a customer, it’s a service provider. It provides a service for Upstart.
Providing that service is CRB’s business. It’s what CRB does! It provides a similar service for other companies too. That’s their business model! It’s one of the ways they make money. They don’t originate the loans.
Now, for an analogy, think of Crowdstrike providing end point security as a provider providing a service. For a company using Crowd, Crowd provides 100% of their end point security, not just 63%, but no one worries “What if Crowdstrike decides not to provide endpoint security any more?” Why not? Because providing endpoint security is Crowd’s business. In the same way, issuing loans for a fee for other companies is CRB’s business, and they make a lot of money from issuing Upstart’s loans, and they have no reason to change that.
When CRB issues the loans, it get’s an immediate origination fee from the borrower. Then CRB can keep a portion of the loans on their balance sheet if they want to, and Upstart buys the rest back from CRB in using a loan sale agreement, bundles them, and immediately passes them on (sells them) to one or more in a field of about a thousand institutional investors.
Upstart’s cash flow statement shows this. For example, this quarter:
“Purchase of loans for immediate resale to investors - $1.3 billion”
“Proceeds from immediate resale of loans to investors” - $1.3 billion.
Now “bundling and selling loans” may sound tawdry to you, but it should make you very, VERY, HAPPY. It means that Upstart carries almost none of that risk on its own books.
Okay, are we are clear on this? CRB isn’t the originating source of loans for Upstart. It just ISSUES the loans that Upstart’s website has originated because CRM is a bank and can do that. It provides a service for which it gets paid. This takes care of 63% of Upstart’s revenue.
B. - Well, that’s 63% of revenue, where does the other 37% come from? As far as I can tell, the other 37% of revenue comes from those now 18 banks (up from 10 just six months ago), that Upstart leases its software to, so that those banks can better evaluate loan applicants. I assume that Upstart gets a software leasing fee plus a small fee from every initiated loan, but I’m not sure about how that works.
I think that Upstart must also take back, bundle and re-sell loans from these banks, the loans that were originated using Upstart’s software, to the same investors. I assume that because Upstart passes on 77% of the total loans to the institutional investors, the banks keep 21%, and Upstart has just 2% (and shrinking) on its books.
Putting together like this what is actually going on, in terms that I can understand, makes me feel quite a bit better about the business, and thus about my investment.
Best,
Saul