How I would handle selling.

How I would handle selling.

On the “What does it take to sell?” thread, Dave wrote:

So a drop in the share price isn’t a good reason to sell. In fact, it might be a great time to add more if your overall thesis is intact…As for ZOES, there has been a deterioration in the fundamentals…

What I do (which is just my way of handling it) is that I don’t even think about the price I bought it. I promise you, I don’t consider it at all probably 95% of the time (especially since most of my portfolio is in IRA’s). I just think about a position that I’m considering selling as a part of my portfolio.

For example, a hypothetical thought process: My portfolio value is now at $xxx. Zoe’s makes up 3.7% of my portfolio. It’s at a price of $YY. That’s the price it’s at right now, and there is nothing I can do about that. Its fundamentals and its stock price are both deteriorating seriously, and there is nothing on the horizon that I can see that will magically turn that around anytime soon. Where can I put that 3.7% of my portfolio where it will have a better chance to grow?

As you see, there’s no consideration at all of the price I bought it at. In that thought process, the price I bought it at would be irrelevant.

Just how I do it…

Saul

For Knowledgebase for this board,
please go to Post #17774, 17775 and 17776.
We had to post it in three parts this time.

A link to the Knowledgebase is also at the top of the Announcements column
that is on the right side of every page on this board

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Saul,

I really appreciate your posting this.

What I do (which is just my way of handling it) is that I don’t even think about the price I bought it.

While I know that you and others have said this many times, I still struggle with it. Sometimes, I get fixated on “not selling at a loss” and end up hanging on too long. I need to focus on the fundamentals, i.e., why I bought the stock originally and whether or not that thesis remains valid. I’m working on this.

Thank you,
Chris

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While this is not a technical part of a sell decision, there are times when
a company’s management changes direction or directs the company ina way that
an investor either no longer understands how the company will continue to make money
or no longer understands the accounting.
One example I can recall was when DuPont Chemical indicated they were going to
exit basic chemicals and only stay in high margin or high growth businesses. They
then proceeded to buy into a white pigments (titanium dioxide) business in
Europe. The two actions were not consistent - and foreshadowed a significant
price decline.

Howie52
Any time companies do things that make you uncertain about how the company’s
earnings will grow, I think you need to re-check the due-diligence you put
into evaluating the company in the first place.
Also, if the CFO leaves - re-read the annual report once or twice.

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I’ve been thinking about what I wrote to start this thread, and I thought of something I could add to clarify my thoughts a bit. I inserted it at the end of this post.

How I would handle selling.

What I do (which is just my way of handling it) is that I don’t even think about the price I bought it. I promise you, I don’t consider it at all probably 95% of the time (especially since most of my portfolio is in IRA’s). I just think about a position that I’m considering selling as a part of my portfolio.

For example, a hypothetical thought process: My portfolio value is now at $xxx. Zoe’s makes up 3.7% of my portfolio. It’s at a price of $YY. That’s the price it’s at right now, and there is nothing I can do about that. Its fundamentals and its stock price are both deteriorating seriously, and there is nothing on the horizon that I can see that will magically turn that around anytime soon. Where can I put that 3.7% of my portfolio where it will have a better chance to grow?

As you see, there’s no consideration at all of the price I bought it at. In that thought process, the price I bought it at would be irrelevant.

I believe I need to think of my money as fungible, interchangeable. It’s only money. It’s not a share of XYZ that I bought at $94, so I have to wait until it gets back to $94 before I sell it even if it takes five years. (Perhaps to make me feel better, so I won’t feel like I made a mistake when I bought it?) It’s just 3.7% of my portfolio, which as a whole is doing fine. Is there somewhere better I can put that money, that 3.7% of my assets, with a clearer path to a long-term good profit?

Just how I do it…

Saul

For Knowledgebase for this board,
please go to Post #17774, 17775 and 17776.
We had to post it in three parts this time.

A link to the Knowledgebase is also at the top of the Announcements column
that is on the right side of every page on this board

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I get fixated on “not selling at a loss”

Chris this is two of the deadly psychological sins of bad investing: price anchoring and loss aversion.

Many studies have shown that people would much rather avoid a $5 loss than miss a $10 gain. They have done this study in many ways with people and monkeys.

Price anchoring is getting a certain price in your head and believing that means something when it does not. In this case it is your purchase price.

People like Saul and Buffett are more successful than most because they have “de-humaninzed” investing. They have taken out these emotions and psychological weaknesses. Not many can successfully do this. David Gardner also does it his system.

We all need to make sure we have a SYSTEM* that we can use successfully, otherwise we have zero chance of beating the market. The best system for success for most people is to just put all your money in cheap index funds and put new money in from every paycheck. You NEVER sell the indexes until you are preparing some safe money for retirement. You will match the market and beat almost everyone you know who is “smarter”. With 10-15 years before retirement you should be able to beat the market (S&P500) easily. This is because small and mid-cap stock outperform large caps over time. People think they are risky becuase they move up and down more, but that is NOT a risk, that is volatility. When you near retirement you put aside some “safe” money to avoid the only risk there is, that money you expected to be there when needed is not there. To beat the market then, you could put 50% in S&P and split the other 50% between things like the VOE, IVOO, S&P 400 small growth. You might even put it all in an equal wieghted S&P fund like the RSP.

Another “easy” system is what David Gardner does, buys good grwoth stocks that have long term potential and then never sells them. Sometimes the Rule Breakers or Stock Advisor sells, but DG says in his podcasts he never does. Losers just become a tinier piece of his portfolio. So for me, I am taking park of my money and going to invest in every DG stock from SA and RB as they are announced. That is 3 stocks a month. I have decided I will do this for the next 2 years (24 months = 72 stocks). Yes that is a lot, but they are equal weighted and they are generally small to mid cap and will outperform the S&P 500 over the 5 or more years I will hold them. This also averages me in over 2 years of market oscillations. That is a system that relieves me from all thinking. I know some will tank and some will be 5 or maybe 10 baggers to more than make up for it. But I will not worry about buy or selling or how much. My system is set and it prevents my emotions or psyche from interferring. (FYI, when I was doing Stock Advisor, I only bought the stocks I liked and sold stuff if it tanked. My scorecard showed I was underperforming. If I had bought equal amounts of all recs and never sold I am convinced I would be doing much better).

Another system is what Saul does, but that that requires a good amount of work and faith in yourself. You can’t just buy and sell on his coattails because he is not running a servcie to tell you exactly when and what he does. You really have to put in the time. In fact, I would like to see the board do a prediction thread in the middle of each month. Use your knowledge of his system to guess what he has done in the 15 days since he revealed his end of month holdings. This is to see how well you and the board members are learning his system. I think Saul would hate this and ask you not to do it :wink:

Whatever system you choose, it is imperitive that it prevents you from doing dumb emotional and psychological things violate your system. Until you can do that, you should only be in index funds.

*DG talks about this in his Rule Breaker podcasts, which are great sources of wisdom and confidence building. I highly recommed the 20 minutes or so it takes each week.

…Just the ramblings of a Puddin’head

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After posting this, I found the RB article:
https://www.fool.com/premium/rule-breakers/coverage/1069/cov…

Here is a summary if you don’t have a subscription:
In his famous 1975 essay “The Loser’s Game” — later expanded into a best-selling book — Charles Ellis compares investing to amateur tennis. Using statistical work and theories developed by scientist Simon Ramo, Ellis points out that amateur tennis players rarely win matches with brilliant shots. In fact, 80% of the time, the winner of an amateur match is the player who makes fewer mistakes. So if you’re new to tennis, you should start by mastering the basics.

The same logic applies to investing. Here are six of the biggest mistakes an investor can make — a half-dozen financial shots into the net. If you can avoid them, the odds are stacked in your favor.

I am a podcast freak and have heard the above story twice in the recent months, perhaps the author and I are listening to the same podcasts. (Planet Money, Freakonomics, Hidden Brain. Also, I think I heard it on Bloomberg also - Barry Ritholz on Saturday Bloomberg Radio - great show.)

Anyway, here are the 6 mistakes mentioned in the article:

  1. Don’t Save
  2. Don’t Invest in Stocks
  3. Pay High Fees
  4. Trade Frequently
  5. Don’t Diversify
  6. Try to Get Rich Quick

Hope that is a short enough summary to not get deleted for copyright.

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Puddin,

I think something is wrong with this sentence…

Many studies have shown that people would much rather avoid a $5 loss than miss a $10 gain.

A: “avoid a $5 loss” means $5 more in my pocket.

B: “miss a $10 gain” means $10 less in my pocket.

I would choose option A every time!

:slight_smile:

3 Likes

…Just the ramblings of a Puddin’head

Hi Puddin’head,

I appreciate your ramblings much as I appreciate the many other contributions on this board.

Chris this is two of the deadly psychological sins of bad investing: price anchoring and loss aversion.

Many studies have shown that people would much rather avoid a $5 loss than miss a $10 gain. They have done this study in many ways with people and monkeys.

Price anchoring is getting a certain price in your head and believing that means something when it does not. In this case it is your purchase price.

I understand these points and am working to improve in this regard.

Thank you!
Chris

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I think something is wrong with this sentence…

Many studies have shown that people would much rather avoid a $5 loss than miss a $10 gain.

A: “avoid a $5 loss” means $5 more in my pocket.

B: “miss a $10 gain” means $10 less in my pocket.

I would choose option A every time!

You are correct, there is something wrong - that is why people make bad decisions.

Here is a 2.5. video showing people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2OtW2KPgF8

Here are the monkeys:
The basic economic theory that people work harder to avoid losing money than they do to make money is shared by monkeys, suggesting this trait has a long evolutionary history, according to a Yale University study under review by the Journal of Political Economy…monkeys were given small disks to trade for rewards—apples, grapes or gelatin cubes. The researchers said capuchins are well–suited subjects for study since they are relatively large–brained primates, skilled problem solvers, and a close evolutionary neighbor to humans.

In their studies monkeys were given a budget of disks and asked to decide how much to spend on apples, and how much to spend on the gelatin cubes, even as the prices of these goods and the size of their budgets fluctuated. Capuchins performed much like humans do. Capuchins, like humans, react rationally to these fluctuations.

In a second experiment, capuchins were asked to choose between spending a token on one visible piece of food that half the time gave a return of two pieces, or two pieces of visible food, that half the time gave a return of only one piece. Economic theory predicts that consumers should not care which of these outcomes they receive since they are essentially both 50–50 shots at one or two pieces of food. The capuchins, however, vastly preferred the first gamble, which is essentially a half chance at a bonus, than the second gamble, which is essentially a half chance at a loss…

Their work provides an evolutionary spin on the current debate about why Americans do not save enough for retirement or put enough of their savings into the stock market. “Although the stock market offers a better rate of return than investing in safer financial products, such as bonds, people tend to experience stock market fluctuations through the biased lens of loss aversion, a lens that appears to be shared with other primates,” Santos said. Chen added, “We are fighting tendencies that may be biologically hard–wired.”

.

If you really have time here is a 20m Ted Talk.

https://www.ted.com/talks/laurie_santos

8 Likes

If I had bought equal amounts of all recs and never sold I am convinced I would be doing much better

How have you been “convinced?” Have you done the arithmetic, or is it just something you know in your gut to be true?

Therein lies the beauty of Saul’s approach to selling.

He does not consider the current state of stock price as compared to purchase price. He simply looks at the holding as occupying a certain percentage of his portfolio. He is continually future oriented. You can’t change history, but you can influence a future outcome.

A given stock may have gone up or down, it’s past price performance is irrelevant. The question is, “am I best positioned in order to enhance my estimation of future performance?”

Saul made good money with Synchrosis, but when the company made a stupid acquisition (in Saul’s estimation) and then sold off their cash cow, the fact that the stock price had historically performed well was not a part of his “sell” decision. Anyone strictly focused on stock price performance may have come to a different decision, or more likely, would have made no decision (a “hold” by default) because they were fixated on stock price rather than the underlying business.

Even a technical analyst guy would not have reacted (lest some chart configuration made a significant warning sign - I don’t think it did until after the stock tanked) to this business situation.

Saul’s method is really not terribly complex (I didn’t say it was easy, just not difficult to understand). He has a laser focus on the businesses he’s invested in and the ones he’s contemplating. Once he’s out of an investment, it’s performance since he sold is irrelevant (to him anyway). Why should he care if it moves up or down when he has no immediate interest. Is there anything to be learned from the stock price movement after he sells? I’m hard pressed to identify anything Saul would change in his investing approach from keeping track of how a particular stock performed post his exit.

The only questions that need to be asked and answered are, “What are the prospects of the companies that currently comprise my portfolio?” “Can those prospects be improved by holding a different configuration of companies and percentages?”

I recently sold Shopify in one of my portfolios. Shopify is my best performing holding. It had grown to over 30% in one portfolio. So even with over 100% gain from my averaged purchase price, I sold about 10%. In a manner of speaking, the stock price had performed too well. It had moved into such a dominant position that it was making me uncomfortable. It’s performance had out-stripped my confidence. I now have it at about 20%, still my largest position, but I spread that extra 10% around such that a swing in the price of one company’s stock did not dominate the value of the portfolio. Note, the stock price per se had nothing to do with my sell decision.

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I recently sold Shopify in one of my portfolios. Shopify is my best performing holding. It had grown to over 30% in one portfolio.

Do you take a portfolio-by-portfolio approach? Or do you look at them in aggregate? Since all my investments are (a) mine, and (b) in support of our retirement, I look my two (IRA, ROTH) as one. But if they were targeted at different purposes I think I would have to be sensitive to each portfolio’s balance.

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RH,
Do you take a portfolio-by-portfolio approach? Or do you look at them in aggregate?
The answer is both. I have 3 portfolios, a taxable trust account, a trad IRA and a Roth IRA. I try to keep my investments more or less in the same balance across all three, but it’s impossible to keep them identical. I also hold a few very, very small speculative positions, but I tend to have them mostly in the Roth IRA. Should any of them explode, I want the distributions to be tax free. So while they are all similarly invested and balanced, they are not identical.

Just the same, 30% in any one company, no matter how well it’s currently performing is just above my comfort level. Andrew Carnegie once said (I paraphrase) “It’s ok to put all your eggs in one basket, but if you do, just watch that basket.” Well, maybe Andy was Ok with that, but I’m not. I don’t even know what to watch in order to insure that all my eggs are safe, so I like to have 15 baskets, more or less.

How have you been “convinced?” Have you done the arithmetic, or is it just something you know in your gut to be true?

Both gut and math. The SA has run multiple random back testing where they picked x random stocks at the beginning of a 10 year period and a huge percent of those portfolios beat the market. They did this over many different 10 year periods with randomly selected stocks. I don’t have the details exactly right, but close. I was not using SA as a system. I sold when they said keep holding because I could not stand it any more. Some of those went up very well shortly after. Some did not. My gut remembers looking at a number of stocks and saying that was boring, or would not go up as one I liked. Being honest, I think that was bad decision making.

Anyway, on to more brainless decisions with part of my portfolio.