Actually you are not. You are trying to find studies that prove your point but they are flawed. The study you showed me was done on Mutual Funds. I have never invested in Mutual Funds and to take that study and say it is indictive of all investors would be wrong. I would say that people that invest in Mutual Funds might be the average investor but are not investors that are active and enjoy investing. I would think they are more the investor that does not watch their investments and are more likely to invest on emotion.
I agree it is easy enough to track your own returns but I noticed you didn’t pick a book that said “Mutual funds for the long Run”. You still haven’t proven your point that 2% of the people are able to time the market. I think we have a different view of investing. Yours is more passive and think that everyone that invests is like you, mine is more active and I think people that are active are more intune with the market. Maybe for people like you, you would be correct, but for people like me, I would be correct.