Hurricane Ian's Cone

Investment Analysis Clubs Destiny Solutions Corporation
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Migrants are reportedly being transported from New York City to Florida for work supporting cleanup efforts in the wake of Hurricane Ian—weeks after the governor put migrants on a flight to Martha’s Vineyard. Over the weekend, scores of Venezuelan migrants were boarding vans heading to the Sunshine State from a pickup point in Queens, despite having little information about who they would be working for, the New York Post says. “They want us for hurricane cleanup, we’d get paid $15 an hour, overtime and $15 for food daily, I think,” Javier Moreno, 37, told the paper, adding that a woman named Camila “from an organization” approached him with a flier about the work. “I’m going for the work,” Moreno added. News of their journey south comes after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis controversially flew migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard to protest the “hypocrisy” of the Biden administration’s border policies.

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Even before Hurricane Ian made landfall on Wednesday, the state’s property insurance market was buckling. Six companies had already fallen into insolvency this year as underwriting losses exceeded $1bn for the second consecutive year. Insurers, in turn, have been exiting the state and curtailing renewals, leaving homeowners with dwindling options for coverage and soaring prices.

“The homeowners insurance market in Florida has already seen escalating losses, increases in premiums, and insolvencies before there was a hurricane. Now with Ian, especially if this storm leads to litigation, it makes me wonder if the market can sustain this,” said Nancy Watkins, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman.

Jon Schneyer of CoreLogic, a property research firm, called Ian “a worst-case scenario” that combined the dangers of enormous breadth, destructive winds and torrential rains. The firm estimated that 7.2mn residences, with a reconstruction value of $1.6tn, were at moderate to high risk of flash flooding.

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How is anyone able to afford homeowner’s insurance in FL?

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As someone who has only evacuated the Keys for two hurricanes in 32-years, Andrew & Irma, I cannot fathom how anyone, living in ground level old Florida homes, or worse, living in trailers or RVs, did not grab their most beloved belongings and leave Dodge when the cone showed you are in its path 48-hours before landfall.

Trying to ride out a hurricane in a trailer or RV during storms rated Cat 3 or above is insane. It’s a crapshoot throw on your life.

I’m thinking the death toll and destruction from Hurricane Ian will change the minds of maybe a million or more new residents and snowbirds who have not paid attention to how hard it is to evacuate any Florida county with only 24-hours notice.

Here in the Keys, there is only one road out to the mainland - and that road crosses 42 bridges. We are now in overbuild mode in the Keys. But changes are coming, I’ll bet, after Ian.

The loss of more Insurers to insolvency and the eventual doubling of insurance premiums after Ian (my guess is premiums will double in 3-5 years yet again) are going to shake out even more inhabitants of the Keys.

Sept. 27 – Criticisms have been lobbied against Lee County officials for issuing a mandatory evacuation for residents less than 24 hours before Ian made landfall as a Category 4 storm, a day after neighboring counties.

DeSantis defended Lee County’s delayed evacuation order on Saturday in Fort Myers, telling reporters that county officials were following the data, which showed the storm hitting Tampa Bay before shifting south to Lee County.

“When we went to bed Monday night, people were saying this is a direct hit on Tampa Bay, worst-case scenario for the state,” the governor said. “As that track started to shift south, and the computer models the next morning, they called for the evacuation, they opened their shelters and they responded very quickly to the data.”

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This is the first footage I’ve seen of Daytona where Ian had traveled overland, lost wind intensity, and yet, a storm surge floods many homes too:

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Jayzus! My wife just got home from work and told me two Key West liveaboards (very young couple) had their anchor line on their boat in a mooring field snapped in rough waters on the 27th. The Coast Guard answered their May Day call, but the Coast Guard only had smaller craft working that couldn’t head out into the swells (they were also busy using their larger vessels, trying to rescue Haitian immigrants whose boat capsized in the Upper and Middle Keys.)

Also, another body washed ashore in Key West which wasn’t either of these two liveaboards described above.

This article from ABC News mentions seven deaths from Ian in this county, Monroe County.

The deaths span multiple counties in Florida, including 59 in Lee County and 24 in Charlotte County. Also reported were seven in Monroe County; five each in Volusia, Collier and Sarasota counties; four in Hendry County; three each in Manatee and Putnam counties; two in Polk County; and one each in Hardee, Hillsborough, Lake and Martin counties, ABC News has determined based on information from the Florida Medical Examiners Commission and inquiries with local officials and authorities.

Hurricane Ian’s death toll has been rising amid ongoing search and rescue missions.

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Hurricane Ian caused extensive flooding in areas outside of the high-risk zones. According to the consulting firm Milliman, roughly 18.5% of homes in counties that were under an evacuation order had federally issued flood insurance. In areas under an evacuation order that were outside of high-risk zones, 9.4% of homes had a policy.

Last year, FEMA updated its pricing system for flood insurance to more accurately reflect risk called Risk Rating 2.0. The old system considered a home’s elevation and whether it was in a high-risk flood zone. Risk Rating 2.0 looks at the risk that an individual property will flood, considering factors like its distance to water. The new pricing system raises rates for about three-quarters of policyholders and offers price decreases for the first time.

FEMA has long said the new ratings would attract new policyholders. However, a FEMA report to the treasury secretary and a handful of congressional leaders last year said far fewer people would buy flood insurance as prices rise. Since the new rating system has gone into effect in Florida, the number of polices in the state has dropped by roughly 50,000 since August 2021.

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