but I wouldn’t mind having a car.Actually I love the car! I’m not sure about the stock. Anybody here have an opinion on Tesla? So far losing $1.11 a share and valued at 32 billion dollars! Seemingly not good numbers and yet it appears that world governments and states are determined to support this company until it achieves success. To me a $35000 car is expensive but I would be willing to go $50000 for this car currently selling for $84000, so the price gap isn’t too far off and I assume dropping for the average Joe. The future is very visionary with solar powered state sponsored charging stations, and a host of other things that seem destined to help develop this industry.
there is an extensive discussion of Tesla on the SAS premium board. And quite a bit on teslamotors.com and teslamotorsclub.com, both free
You are never going to see a Tesla S at $50,000. It is and always will be a premium sports sedan . But a followup smaller model (called Gen 3) will be available in a few years for around $40,000.
I’m not a super-experienced investor but here’s what I think.
I think electric cars will gain huge market share in the next 10 years. Right now Tesla is the only electric car that’s really good and has a long range. The Leaf and i3 are good cars but have <100 mile ranges which scares most Americans away, even if it shouldn’t. So Tesla sort of has a monopoly. Their cars also have great prestige/goodwill.
I have to believe that eventually a major automaker or three (Nissam, Toyota, Ford, BMW?) will come out with a more competitive electric car in the next year or two. Will Tesla still support a P/E of 380 then?
Maybe. The model X looks fabulous (have you seen the gull wing doors? If not go check the web site). Its release will likely inspire more investor confidence. And if Tesla becomes ‘the car battery company’ for many makes then I may regret selling.
I keep thinking about Buffet’s famous ‘voting machine vs. counting machine’ quote. Seems like this stock is being valued very much by the voting machine.
Anyway I’ve sold off over half of my position, keeping a small number of shares I bought at $33 to keep track of the stock/story and show my kids one day. I admire the company greatly and may get back in if the price corrects greatly.
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Tesla is my second largest position, due to growth (most of my position has a cost basis in the $30-$33 range, though I did buy more at $150). They’re only slightly profitable (on a non-GAAP basis), but they’re throwing a lot of money at growing the business, similar to Amazon or Solazyme.
I think the stock price is mostly about “potential.” They have a huge success in the Model S. They seem quite passionate about having an overwhelming win with their products (things like the Supercharger network, swappable batteries). That’s just in a relatively narrow market ($100,000 luxury performance sedans). If they can have similar wins in more mainstream products (Model X and Gen 3), their business could become far larger. If they can keep similar gross margins (which would require benefits from economy of scale), and then stabilize the size of the business, they should be one of the most profitable auto companies (if not the most profitable). There is other potential that they might profit from more than just their car sales (selling batteries to other manufacturers, selling access to the Supercharger network, ???).
But it is a highly capital intensive business, which means that long term growth in the value of the business needs to come from growth in revenue. How long can they be a rapid grower? A few years, a decade, more? If growth slows significantly, the stock price will probably take a beating. Unless they get bought out first.
I definitely wouldn’t bet directly against Elon Musk.
Tesla’s stock price performance reminds me of Apple years ago, when the market seemed to think Apple could do no wrong. Sure, it pulled back at times, but then it kept steadily climbing. The spate of car fires caused TSLA to drop, but then that faded and the stock continued climbing again. When will the market’s opinion change and Tesla can do nothing right?
The bulk of my position is January 2015 $30 calls. Right now, those are covered (hedged) by September 2014 $255 calls. I’ll probably try to roll the $255 calls up and out to eke out some more income, and try to capture more upside. Come January 2015 expiration, I will likely trim my position a bit. (If I were to buy TSLA today, I don’t think I would buy as large a position as I currently hold.)
-Mark
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re: TSLA
Own the stock and as a Swing Trader, trade TSLA per Freestockcharts dot com using the 5/20 EMA and the MACD 5-20. Execute at each MACD xover. For side bar action, trade per my Simon Sez rules on a weekly chart. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&yr=0&m… bought on monday morning July 21st, sold on Monday morning August 25th.
I own a BLUE Model S P85 with 21" rims. Also tacked on a few other packages.
And looking at the http://saleen.com/foursixteen.html some day, starting price is 152,000 to 175,000. and the Hot Lips paint job costs 25,000. Like the Tesla Model which is ultra quite, the 416 has sound because of the motor that sounds like a Formula racing car.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNY6VhGzfA0 With Mr. Saleen introducing the 416 at Pebble Beach.
Quillnpenn -
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