I failed

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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to follow up on my list of 100 ideas and report back. Just got bombed with personal stuff that’s going to take quite awhile (we’re getting out house ready to sell and downsize) but I don’t believe in excuses, so . . . I’ve been trying to determine how much of a few of those guys to buy while the price has been on a tear for all of them.

Saul’s rubbing off on me. I no longer buy small pieces of anything. I’m down to 14 stocks and none are losing. One AAPL position is my slowest gainer, while another slice of AAPL is one of the higher, due to buying the former at a bad price. All the rest are running on CAGR’s of 31% and up–way up. :slight_smile:

I bought a big chunk of ALGN. Someone mentioned them earlier I see. I found no serious red flags for them, if you believe in the business model. (I do for the mid-term but long term, I see little moat other than the wonderful worth of mouth - pun intended - they have enjoyed to date. Also had no serious issues with VEEV or Micron, so I bought a bunch of all 3. I’m surprised no one’s mentioned Micron; I know it’s not new, it’s not sexy, but they’re raising revenues and profits faster than the analyst idiots can track.

I used to get concerned when a position grew to near 10% of my portfolio. Now I start out with 7-10% positions. Call me crazy, but it’s working. Of course in this market, everything’s working, so I’m not passing out cigars or anything.

My apologies for not writing up some of the companies I’m trying to get time to review in detail; worse yet, it’s still going to be awhile before I get back to them. But I promised to speak up if I grabbed anything from the list. This is it. :slight_smile:

My gains from 100 days in SHOP just added another digit and also surpassed my gains from 722 days in GOOG. So much for diversification.

Anyone read the new book from AAII’s retiring CEO, called Level 3 Investing? I just got the book but already I see he trashes all the old investing “rules” including LTBH, diversification, Beta and MPT. Makes me wonder if Saul wrote it under a pseudonym. :slight_smile:

Good luck to all,

Dan

ps: Yikes, I just ran across a TMF promo for some new service that’s going to change the world (make them richer, I suppose) and they listed 4 Big New Thing stocks, 2 of which were VEEV (no surprise there) and ALGN. Maybe I should have bought more Micron. :slight_smile: Gotta move fast these days to keep ahead of the Jones’s, the Gardners and Mr. Market.

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I have to say that Saul’s concentrated approach has rubbed off on me too. I sleep better knowing my stocks better, and am more comfortable with the ups and downs of the market. Saves me a bit of time and improved my returns considerably. I closed out my fiscal year last week, up 37%.

bulwnkl

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With the provisor that I love Sauls method as well as his approach and the input he has in this board, I think all of those that are new to Sauls method need to understand that the stocks currently in the stable are higher risk stocks. In the potentially frothy part of the bull market we are in now it is not hard to see why these stocks are taking off. This is not said to dimish in any way Sauls record but to highlight the fact that these are somewhat risky volatile stocks that in the long term should handily beat the market but in the short term and especially in a bear market could suffer. Anyone thinking that they can sleep better being in Sauls stocks or that that they have mastered investing just because they are in SHOP and PAYC and are fielding outsized returns could be fooling themselves.

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I closed out my fiscal year last week, up 37%

bulwnkl,

I was just looking at my portfolio performance. My last 12 months as of yesterday: up 37.6%

Frank

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Wise words of counsel, Craig.

About 3/4s of my portfolio is made up of “Saul” type stocks. The other 1/4 in conservative high yield stocks. My returns for the past 3 months are up ~12.25% (not including dividends) vs approximately 4% for the S&P.

I find that an aggressive mix of high growth stocks mixed with “boring” high yield stocks allows me to sleep well at night while enjoying nice returns with steady income during this bull market.

Jim

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I’m down to 14 stocks and none are losing.

I remember having that exact same feeling in July 2015. I started to tell my friends what a savvy investor I was, and how this investing board had magical powers. Then I lost 29% of my portfolio value in the next 6 months, as several of my large positions imploded, while the S&P lost only 8%.

I’m almost back up to where I was back then, but I’m a lot more diversified now. I figure to roll with double-digit positions, you have to watch your stocks like a hawk (at least daily and in depth). I work and have kids so that ain’t happening.

This is a great board to be sure, but it took me awhile to learn how to leverage its insights in a safe enough manner for me. And I’m sure I have plenty more to learn still.

Good luck to everyone (sincerely), may your investing styles match your capabilities.

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I hear you Craig. I think everyone should have a long-term strategy in mind before we hit the next market drop which I think is coming sooner than later. For me that involves blending value and growth stocks. That said, I am having a hard time finding value right now, and I am building a war chest for the next major drop.

Best,

bulwnkl

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Hi Dan.

I thought Level 3 Investing was a worthwhile read. I already adhere to some of his views – my portfolio is almost entirely in equities with very little cash and no bonds. Some of his other ideas make logical sense, but fail my “sleep at night” test. For example, I have a separate emergency fund that I don’t even count as “in my portfolio”. But I think Saul doesn’t want this board to become a book discussion club.

I recently read something from an old Barron’s where they explained the appeal of Micron. The older computing paradigm focuses on chips with a lot of computing power, but only enough memory to store the computer program’s instructions. More modern tasks (e.g., machine learning) turn that paradigm upside-down, needing chips with much less in the way of computing power, but much more access to data (typically stored in memory). Micron specializes in memory chips.

“Word of mouth” and ALGN. Ouch.

Fool on!
Thanks and best wishes,
TMFDatabaseBob (no position in companies mentioned)
See my holdings here: http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFDatabasebob/info.aspx
Peace on Earth

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Anyone thinking that they can sleep better being in Sauls stocks or that that they have mastered investing just because they are in SHOP and PAYC and are fielding outsized returns could be fooling themselves.

Hi CraigDoc,

Right you are; I agree 100% and didn’t mean to suggest there is only one way to building wealth, or that my way (or yours, or Saul’s, or . . . ) is the best. However, I have to say I have noticed that for me personally, it’s much easier to enter any downturn with 40-100% gains for the year than it is when holding stocks that have fought for 2-3 years to maintain a return above the S&P 500.

I also think this giddy market is temporary, the question is how long it will last. But rather than worry about the market taking a u-turn, I want to squeeze out every drop of capital gains that I can. If I were 20 years younger and raising kids? No way, no how; I’d still be going by the “old rules” and building more slowly. Nothing wrong with that either.

. . . or that they have mastered investing . . . and are fielding outsized returns could be fooling themselves.

Not to worry, that isn’t me. I know better–unfortunately, from much personal experience. And when the u-turn occurs, unless it happens in a few minutes (now a computer-generated possibility, IMO) I won’t stick around for the slaughter.

Dan, still - and always - learning

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