The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said generation capacity of nuclear power worldwide is expected to rise more than the group previously expected, to as much as 950 GW of generation by 2050. The IAEA in a report published Sept. 16 revised its annual projection for a fourth straight year, saying global nuclear capacity could jump by 2.5 times its current capacity by mid-century.
The agency said small modular reactors (SMRs) would make a “significant contribution” to higher nuclear generation. The group published its projections Monday in “Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050“. The IAEA, which has published the report for more than 40 years, said its data “aligns with the global consensus on the need to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy.”
“Following the success of COP28 in Dubai and the first-ever Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels [Belgium], the global momentum behind nuclear energy continues at pace,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi on Monday. “The new IAEA projections reflect increasing acknowledgement of nuclear power as a clean and secure energy supply, as well as increasing interest in SMRs to target both electric and non-electric applications to meet climate goals and foster sustainable development.” Grossi announced the agency’s new projections in his opening statement at the 68th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, Austria, which runs today through Sept. 20.
The United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, last year for the first time included nuclear power in the Global Stocktake, an inventory of measures being taken to support deployment of low-emission technologies to help achieve decarbonization.
371.5 GW in Operation
The IAEA report said that at year-end 2023, 413 nuclear power reactors were operational worldwide, with combined generation capacity of 371.5 GW. In the high-case scenario of the new IAEA outlook, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 950 GW by 2050. The group said that even in its low-case projection, global capacity in 2050 would reach 514 GW, about 40% more than today. The agency said SMRs “account for about one-quarter of the capacity added in the high case and for 6% in the low-case scenario.”