Candidates holding up well…
SNOW a bit iffy, but holding above the flag high
PSTG did not have an up day, but found support at a high from early Sept.
IBD folks hate ugly outside down days, especially when they are downside reversals as well. Need a change of character before you can touch these.
Lot of Software, SaaS names are showing this pattern. This is a reliable indicator for a breakout.
I thought I had this one figured out but was stopped out today. I am going to hold my cash and watch. Thanks for the insight Lake.
I put $BKKT on my “Heat” watch list after its big breakaway gap.
On the weekly, it is building a good looking, tight flag (right image). On the daily, it found support at the 21dma yesterday and is moving above sideways consolidation on +62% above avg volume. Some traders would use this to buy with a stop loss below the 21dma
ROOT and INOD look like they are done. That’s a lot of damage when there are so many holding up or moving up. Both started their fall with bad downside reversals. Neither could hold the 21dma.
Well, if we are in a 1999 scenario, nothing is done 
Today was the time to buy $CRDO, moving to new highs on higher volume. It was on my end of the day list to make sure it was still strong, and then I missed it. Put in an afterhours order for closing price, so we will see.
In the Friday Webby video, he talked about the AVGO gap up, which I will elaborate in a separate thread. But he said one of the things we would like to see it to act like CRDO (see my post above). Webby bought CRDO on the blue up day last Wednesday the added it to Swing Trader on Friday before it broke out. Anyway, that got him to look back at Blackberry in 2004 as another analog. Here are the charts.
The one on the left is the daily for its initial gap up, and then the High Tight Flag it formed. On the right is a weekly chart ending about 2 years later. If you look closely, you will see on the weekly that it was also a “Short Stroke” pattern.
That Black Berry Chart would be hard to hold. The bases dropped below the 50sma.
Good observation. The first dip below the 50dma was on higher volume as well.
On this version of the chart the price is split adjusted. The buy was around $35 on the breakout from the flag. It went up to about $51 before dipping below the 50dma and stopping around $42.51. You would still be up 20% from $35, but many would have sold. If you were out, then perhaps you would have bought the next base because the first flagpole and profit gave you long-term confidence. If so, you would have gone from $55 to $72 before a new base started and bottomed around $52, below the previous breakout. Definitely hard to hold. Bill would sell when the signals said to, but he was never afraid to re-buy a good stock out of a proper base.
I like to take it back and walk through the chart day by day to see how I would react. That is something IBD says to do. Starting from 1/4/2004 and going through 2005 is very eye opening. But you are right Pete it could have been bought back multiple times.
Some “Heat” stocks that may or may not have HTF potential. These might be worth looking at today.
BAKKT: rounding out a bottom and moving above some short term highs.
DAVE: trying to rise above $100 and some congestion on increased volume.
MARA moving above 21dma, not exciting.
APP: good bounce off 21dma, like it better than MARA
LMND: jumped above 21dma on very strong (but early) volume.
SEZL: looking for support at 50dma.
BROS: support at 21dma Friday, moving higher today.
PSTG: broke above downtrend Friday, up again today.
CVNA: forming a long flat base, no action in store for today.
GEO: Looking for support at 21dma.
CRDO: down on higher volume.
Seems like some trader’s would have seen a buy signal today, and then again above the top dashed line.
Here is weekly chart.
They were reviewing $GEV in Friday’s video and it looked like a HTF on the weekly to me, then they confirmed that (or a Minervini Power Play?)
I had a 1/3 position and now have some buy-stops in for Monday, might get some in pre-market. It broke a downtrend Friday and some highs I had alerts on (but failed to buy, but I bought other stuff Friday). Blue Dot on the RS.
I think there is lots of AI hype with this, but I think the real potential is with the NatGas turbines. There is now way to build enough Nuclear Power in time to build all the AI datacenters. NatGas is pretty decent and will be a bridge to whatever green dream the AI datacenters want to move to. Coal plants can also be converted to NatGas, and while that may not happen here, it may in Germany (with our LNG). Maybe China will stop opening 3 Coal plants a week and make them NatGas instead, they can buy it all from Russia since Russia it being cut off from Europe (at least to some extent).
In short, I think this flag or shelf could be part of the next move up.
GEO did well and today could have been an add on. RKLB did not hold up
RKLB is not dead yet, but not showing strength.
GEV flexed its muscles in this downturn…
I sold out of my “HTF-like” and “Heat” stocks on
1/6 for Dave (big loss)
and 1/7 for HOOD, PSTG, RDDT, CRDO
Also sold ALAB, maybe it was “heat” or momo, but it was building a nice ascending base pattern. With the degradation in the market, I thought it best to ditch these first. Can always buy them back.
Good gains for ALAB and I wish I could have held, but looking for that third ascending base to build and breakout**. DAVE** was a big loser, twice. Ouch
HOOD has been strong and jumped above my sell point today.
PSTG had an upside reversal yesterday and in a strong market I would have added. Today it settled around my sell point
CRDO found support at 21dma, but is below my sell point. In a strong market that stock had to be held, and I would be looking for a nice rebound off the 21dma. At least I sold for a profit and can psychologically get back in higher if merited.
RDDT is turning into a real company and should be owned. I made a little profit and want to own it again, but not at the moment. It bounced up and touched me sell point, but then reversed down. My original sell plan was if it fell below that high of $158.49. I preempted that and sold because of the market, but it did make it down to my sell plan price later.
This review was very interesting to me. They really held up pretty well. None got near their 50dma. Two are above the 21dma and the other two are right on it. These all need to be on your watch list. I think I did the right thing at the right time, but maybe I had weaker stocks to sell first. I don’t feel bad at all that HOOD jumped my price. I have to try and keep some discipline. The IBD exposure recommendation helps me with that thinking.
If I had a desert island list of 10 stocks I would want in my account while I was stuck on a desert island for 3 years, RDDT and HOOD would be two of them. CAVA would be a third.
I would love to wake up and see the results 3 years later.
Just a quick note, and this may have been noted here previously, apologies if repeat.
On Friday, Webby got into a discussion on IBD Live with the guest concerning the definition of a HTF. His main message was that O’Neil was a hard definitive rules follower. He would only declare HTF after 100% pole and no more than a 20% flag.
Webby stated he analyzed all HTF “in spirit” formations from 1963 to 2013 (maybe 2015). He states that he found many shorter flags worked with it optimal at 80-85% pole. And flags down to 28% worked as well. He uses the term spirit of HTF I guess out of respect of Bill, whom he respectfully disagrees with in regards to HTF parameters.
Lakedog
Lakedog, thanks for this. Did Webby mention the success rate of the 100% poles? Especially relative to the success rate of the 80-85% poles.
