IDTechEx: Battery Swaps for EVs 2022-2032

An in-depth white paper on battery swaps for EVs replete with data, graphs, charts. Catching on quickly in China, now in Norway, and one beta shop in California already from $NIO. Has other informative data too, such as swap centers set up with solar, other new players in the BSS sweepstakes, etc.

IDTechEx headline: Battery Swapping for Electric Vehicles 2022-2032: Technology, Players and Forecasts

Battery swapping for cars, two and three-wheelers, and commercial heavy-duty segments. Market players, technology landscape, and granular 10-year forecasts…

Table of Contents

    1.1. Battery swapping: charge it or change it?
    1.2. There are many ways to charge your EV - charging modes comparison
    1.3. Swap-capable EVs entering the market
    1.4. Battery swapping pathways for different types of EVs
    1.5. Car swapping process overview
    1.6. Battery swapping market for cars in China is getting competitive
    1.7. Swapping is more expensive than AC or DC charging
    1.8. Swapping station deployment will rise over the next 5 years
    1.9. Battery as a Service (BaaS) business model - a disintegrated approach
    1.10. Two and three-wheelers use small capacity, self-service swap models
    1.11. Two wheeler battery swapping is successfully being carried out in population-dense regions of APAC
    1.12. Commercial heavy duty battery swapping is in its early stages
    1.13. Battery swapping stations can act as grid support units and enable battery recycling
    1.14. Battery swapping SWOT analysis
    1.15. Battery swapping benefits and scepticism
    1.16. Global cumulative swap station deployment by segment 2021-2032
    1.17. Light EVs to remain most prominent segment for swapping, cars to follow
    1.18. Battery swapping will impose additional demand on the global battery supply
    1.19. Global battery swapping infrastructure market value per year - over $22 billion in 2032
    1.20. High level findings
    1.21. Access to IDTechEx portal profiles
    2.1. Why swap?
    2.2. Ditching the cable
    2.3. Current bottleneck in charging
    2.4. From cable charging to battery swapping
    2.5. Swapping vs cable charging
    2.6. Battery swapping can serve more cars than superchargers
    2.7. EV charging modes comparison
    3.1. Introduction
    3.1.1. History: a spectacular failure
    3.1.2. Major milestones
    3.1.3. Technology overview
    3.1.4. Challenges and opportunities
    3.1.5. Battery swapping scepticism
    3.1.6. The cost problem $
    3.1.7. Replacement queuing
    3.1.8. Swapping industry seeing large investments
    3.1.9. Can a swap station make profit?
    3.1.10. Profitability analysis
    3.1.11. Battery swapping advantages
    3.1.12. Trickle/centralised charging enabled by swapping
    3.1.13. Battery swapping is taking off in the Chinese EV market
    3.1.14. China development phases
    3.1.15. China swapping OEMs milestones
    3.1.16. Historical swap station deployment in China
    3.1.17. Swap stations in Chinese cities
    3.1.18. 2021 was a pivotal year for battery swapping in China
    3.1.19. Will it catch on outside of China?
    3.1.20. Why battery swapping is ideal for fleets
    3.1.21. Swapping value for end user
    3.2. Battery Swapping Technologies
    3.2.1. Battery swapping station (BSS)
    3.2.2. Battery swapping mechanisms
    3.2.3. Battery swapping can take various forms
    3.2.4. Battery swapping mechanism - base frame type
    3.2.5. Battery swapping mechanisms - forklift type
    3.2.6. Battery swapping mechanism - gripper type
    3.2.7. Above versus below ground swapping
    3.2.8. Operation process in the swapping model
    3.2.9. Real world BSS usage scenarios
    3.2.10. How many excess batteries?
    3.2.11. The inventory dilemma
    3.2.12. Swapping station footprints and storage capacity
    3.2.13. Swapping station footprint per MWh of storage capacity
    3.2.14. Battery swap modes
    3.2.15. Battery pack universality is hard to achieve
    3.2.16. What’s inside a BSS and how are they differentiated?
    3.2.17. Nio BSS - how it works
    3.2.18. Nio BSS components
    3.2.19. Nio BSS tech specs
    3.2.20. Controlling the BSS
    3.2.21. Locking/unlocking the battery: Nio
    3.2.22. Nio battery pack options
    3.2.23. Nio to offer even more battery capacity
    3.2.24. Aulton BSS: how it works
    3.2.25. Aulton BSS tech specs
    3.2.26. Locking/unlocking the battery: Aulton/BAIC
    3.2.27. Botan swapping technology
    3.2.28. Botan revives side to side pull out swap
    3.2.29. Botan swapping modes
    3.2.30. CATL EVOGO swapping technology
    3.2.31. Ample swapping technology
    3.2.32. Power Swap - swapping technology
    3.2.33. Power Swap - automatic swapping unit components
    3.2.34. System design for swapping
    3.2.35. Comparison of different battery mounting options
    3.2.36. Battery-to-grid within the battery swapping model
    3.2.37. Safety - what can go wrong while swapping?
    3.3. Battery Swapping Market
    3.3.1. Market entrants
    3.3.2. Location matters
    3.3.3. Stakeholders
    3.3.4. Tesla and Better Place swapping business models
    3.3.5. Business model of Chinese enterprises
    3.3.6. Battery as a Service (BaaS) business model - a disintegrated approach
    3.3.7. Why BaaS will be a popular model
    3.3.8. Nio sets up separate battery asset company
    3.3.9. BaaS has low TCO in the short term
    3.3.10. Nio lets users opt out of BaaS plan
    3.3.11. Who owns the battery?
    3.3.12. Battery swapping is becoming big business
    3.3.13. Cost comparison
    3.3.14. Fire risks and recalls in swapping
    3.3.15. Swap enabled EV models
    3.3.16. Passenger battery swapping EV models
    3.3.17. Growing market for swap enabled EVs for private users
    3.3.18. Commercial battery swapping EV models
    3.3.19. Swap-enabled EVs to station ratio - not enough swap stations?
    3.3.20. Multi aspect analysis of battery swapping ecosystem
    3.4. Battery Swapping Players
    3.4.1. Chinese swapping players overview
    3.4.2. Battery swapping partnerships
    3.4.3. Nio aka Weilai
    3.4.4. Nio financials and company factsheet
    3.4.5. Nio sales picking up and production ramping up
    3.4.6. Nio - Sinopec partnership
    3.4.7. Nio and local counterparts
    3.4.8. Nio’s Europe expansion
    3.4.9. Nio swap stations in Europe to use Technotrans cooling solution
    3.4.10. Nio swap station deployment
    3.4.11. Nio station to vehicle ratio
    3.4.12. BAIC BJEV
    3.4.13. BAIC BJEV - Blue Park Smart Energy
    3.4.14. Blue Park Smart Energy - SKI Innovation partnership
    3.4.15. Blue Park Smart Energy - Bosch - Mitsubishi partnership
    3.4.16. Aulton aka Aodong
    3.4.17. Aulton’s commercial approach vs Nio’s private approach
    3.4.18. Aulton partnerships - a brand neutral swapping experience
    3.4.19. Infradianba: Chinese-German battery swapping venture
    3.4.20. Hangzhou First Technology Co. aka Botan
    3.4.21. Botan partnerships
    3.4.22. Geely: ambitious latecomer
    3.4.23. Geely and Lifan JV - Ruilan
    3.4.24. CATL EVOGO - need based battery rental
    3.4.25. CATL’s entry into the swapping business
    3.4.26. GAC Aion - latest Chinese market entrant
    3.4.27. SAIC-GM-Wuling
    3.4.28. Power Swap - European swapping player
    3.4.29. Battswap - compact van swapping
    3.4.30. Ample - swapping in the US
    3.4.31. Adaptive City Mobility (ACM)
    4.1. Introduction
    4.1.1. Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
    4.1.2. The rise of electric two and three-wheelers
    4.1.3. Electric two-wheelers (E2W) in India
    4.1.4. Electric three-wheelers (E3W) in India
    4.1.5. Electric two and three-wheelers dominate EV sales in India
    4.1.6. India moto market forecast
    4.1.7. India: Historic E2W Market Growth
    4.1.8. Rise of Li-ion in India
    4.1.9. E2W by Power Class and Battery Type 2015-2041
    4.1.10. Gigafactories in India
    4.1.11. List of EV Startups in India
    4.1.12. How swapping for two and three-wheelers differs from four-wheelers
    4.1.13. The proposition for electric two-wheeler swapping
    4.1.14. The light electric vehicle interchangeable battery consortium
    4.1.15. Benefits and challenges for two and three-wheeler swapping
    4.2. Two and three wheeler swapping technology
    4.2.1. Self-service swapping process
    4.2.2. Two and three wheeler swapping architectures
    4.2.3. Gogoro swapping technology
    4.2.4. Sun Mobility technology (2 & 3-wheeler solution)
    4.2.5. Piaggio’s e3W using Sun Mobility swapping architecture
    4.2.6. Standalone model - a distributed architecture
    4.2.7. Hub and spoke model - a centralised architecture
    4.2.8. Defining specifications for swapping architecture in India
    4.2.9. Centralised and closed loop management of batteries
    4.3. Two and three wheeler swapping players
    4.3.1. Gogoro
    4.3.2. Gogoro business model
    4.3.3. Gogoro swap station network
    4.3.4. Gogoro partnerships
    4.3.5. Gogoro expansion plans
    4.3.6. Gogoro’s swappable solid state battery prototype
    4.3.7. Oyika
    4.3.8. Ampersand
    4.3.9. Kymco - Ionex Recharge
    4.3.10. Immotor
    4.3.11. MBI - mbigo
    4.3.12. Mbigo Sharing Battery Station (SBS) specification
    4.3.13. Swobbee
    4.3.14. Zeway
    4.3.15. Sun Mobility - swapping in Indian EV ecosystem
    4.3.16. Sun Mobility partnerships
    4.3.17. Hero brand clarity
    4.3.18. Honda
    4.3.19. Gachaco
    4.3.20. Battery Smart
    4.3.21. RACEnergy
    4.3.22. Voltup
    4.3.23. Bounce
    4.3.24. Lithion Power
    4.3.25. BatteryPool
    4.3.26. Esmito
    4.3.27. Two and three wheeler swapping players summary
    4.3.28. IDTechEx opinion on the state of swapping in India
    5.1. Introduction
    5.1.1. Electric heavy vehicles in China
    5.1.2. Electric truck OEMs in China
    5.1.3. Mounting swappable batteries in trucks
    5.1.4. Chinese battery swapping electric heavy trucks (EHTs)
    5.1.5. Technical parameters for battery swapping EHT models
    5.1.6. Battery-swapping truck market share in China
    5.1.7. Heavy-duty truck swapping stations in China
    5.1.8. Major Chinese players in the battery swapping supply chain
    5.1.9. Challenges of battery swapping for electric trucks
    5.1.10. Advantages of battery swapping for electric trucks
    5.1.11. Swapping promotes safer battery management and higher battery lifecycle value
    5.1.12. Ecosystem for battery swapping in electric trucks
    5.1.13. Battery swapping for electric buses
    5.1.14. Bus stations to battery swap stations?
    5.1.15. Side to side swapping for electric buses
    5.1.16. Side to side swapping in practice
    5.1.17. Battery swapping feasibility for heavy duty applications
    5.2. CAM and commercial heavy duty battery swapping players
    5.2.1. Komatsu / Honda micro electric excavators
    5.2.2. Gehl electric skid steer with battery swap
    5.2.3. Hyundai excavator HX260AL electric
    5.2.4. Doosan DX300LC electric
    5.2.5. Limach E88.1 excavator
    5.2.6. PV-E crane 100% electric crawler cranes
    5.2.7. Chinese OEMs electric mixer trucks
    5.2.8. Sany’s battery swapping station debut
    5.2.9. Chinese battery swapping dump trucks
    5.2.10. Etrucks swapping range
    5.2.11. Janus Electric
    5.2.12. Edison Motors buses
    5.2.13. Foton C10/C12 EV
    5.2.14. Ashok Leyland Circuit S
    5.2.15. Sun Mobility technology (bus solution)
    5.2.16. Project eHaul to test robotic battery swapping for trucks
    5.2.17. Route Charge - Battery changing system for medium distances commercial vehicles
    6.1. International swap standards: an overview
    6.2. IEC 62840
    6.3. Comparison between swap standards
    6.4. National policies aid swapping and provide tailwinds
    6.5. Policies - China
    6.6. Policies - India
    6.7. Indian state level policies
    7.1. Forecast methodology and assumptions
    7.2. Global cumulative swap station deployment by segment 2021-2032
    7.3. Global new swap station deployment by segment 2021-2032
    7.4. Car swap stations by region 2021-2032
    7.5. Total number of swap stations in China 2021-2032
    7.6. New car swap stations in China
    7.7. Car swap stations by swapping mode 2021-2032
    7.8. Car swap stations by swapping type 2021-2032
    7.9. Total two and three wheeler swap stations 2021-2032
    7.10. New two and three wheeler swap stations 2021-2032
    7.11. Total commercial heavy duty swap stations 2021-2032
    7.12. New commercial heavy duty swap stations 2021-2032
    7.13. Global swap station storage capacity per year
    7.14. Car swap station storage capacity 2021-2032
    7.15. Two and three wheeler swap station storage capacity 2021-2032
    7.16. Commercial heavy duty swap station storage capacity 2021-2032
    7.17. Global battery swapping infrastructure market value per year
    7.18. Conclusions