Hello all,
I have been holding, selling, recycling RKLB shares for many many years. I dabbled in other space stocks and only ever kept Rocket Lab…not even remotely interested in whatever amalgamation that the Musk’r is building.
There was finally a run up in prices over the last year or so due to execution and the others (Virgin, Blue Origin, Stratolaunch, etc) falling out of the race. Then we had SpaceX finally making it to IPO which also reignited the space fever of some investors.
So…the valuation was a little high about three-four months back. As of today, I saw an article that was talking about Neutron, the next rocket design that they are relying on to get into medium lift category. They have never talked about plans for a "heavy’ launch vehicle, and it would go kinda counter to their company philosophy of quick launches from many locations around the world.
The Neutron rocket may only hit the launch pad by end of year, meaning no launch this year, so that pushes timelines back by the fourth (or so) time in last two years. That news is weighing on the market, so I expect valuation to drop a little for some time going forward.
I have been letting my position go this year at these prices. I am now seeing the catalyst for my picking up all of my position again as prices drop. This is because of things like all of their contract wins this year, the additional launch facilities, the ongoing excellence of their current launch cadence, and also that they just shared information about a “portable” kinda launch system that fits in shipping containers. They are executing and they have been remarkable in consistency and growth with things like…making satellites, making components for others, buying that satellite constellation for comms. This is not a company that is sleeping…
…and maybe the news about Neutron will provide us all with a (re)entry point.
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Thank you for this timely re-introduction. For whatever reason RKLB was not in my Database of ~200 past and current hypergrowth tickers - a major oversight on my part. As most of you know I am a violator of Saul’s implicit rules on dominant use of company guidance, so I rarely post; but follow his strategy via a detailed assessment of growth, value and risk metrics in a personal Database updated weekly. After my entry of RKLB in the Database and subsequent examination, I will be taking a mid-sized entry position in the morning.
Thank you again!
Gray
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I have been RKLB for about 2 years entry price ~$6.00/share. I feel guilty I never brought this stock to this board as it was a true Saul stock. I am kind of a space junky and did not care about the massive losses in capex/FCF. I only saw +90% revenue growth and space stuff so I needed it for grins and fun. Within 60 days RKLB had gone to over $25/share. So I sold half with concerns for Neutron. Afterall, this is rocket science and stuff happens. (I once trained an astronaut only to see his shuttle blow up). I sold most of RKLB once I had a spiffy pop. But I still hold a small position for …grins and fun. Neutron is an absolute game changer for RKLB and commercialization of space.
Nobody replicates what SpaceX did with Falcon in 10 years on the first try. I am badly temped with the pullback and all their full stack launch and satellite wins. NASA really wants a low cost alternative to Falcon. And RKLB is building a nice backlog for Electron and other products. Once RKLB is really showing reliable green shoots with Neutron, I’ll add to my position. Until then you are only playing the volatility. This is a really well run company with the right government and private in roads. And great engineers. For now I’ll just sit on my small position and ready to jump when I see Falcon fly.
-zane
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New interview with “Sir” Peter Beck just dropped and I am loving it. It truly gives you more insight into who he is and what he’s going to do with the company.
Acquisitions - aiming only for bolt on stuff that already has proven track records - fly wheels as example.
Why go public - as a way to enforce business discipline and ensure it lives on past him
Why he is now Sir - lol, this bit was funny
Good stuff and helpful as it re-enforces my own thoughts that just because a rocket is late doesn’t mean the company is failing. The hype of the markets can get disturbing and good to hear his perspective. (“Look, how late was electron to market?” “I don’t know.” “No one knows.”)
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He had an interesting response on this point saying that people shouldn’t be asking when the next rocket will launch, but rather when the 10th next rocket will launch. I like the long-term view. Will look into this company.
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