Austin,
I respect your contributions to the board. But I think you are way off on this one.
You claim “everyone” followed Saul to the exits. But have no data to back this up. Lots of people are still holding Fastly and have made clear why they are still holding. Muji, AThinkingFool, Smorgasbord I believe are all still holding. And clearly the high number of recs your post got suggests many are in fact still holding.
You suggest now there’s signs of a herd mentality, again, with zero data. There were no signs of people following Saul’s - and other’s - picks prior to this? Really? Saul and the “elders” of this board have put up astonishing numbers. If people want to blindly follow those investors, this is a reasonable strategy. One might even say it’s a “Rule Breaking” strategy. Are you really going to impugn the intellectual rigor of people putting up 50, 60, 80, 100% gains merely because they blindly copied Saul?
I respect Saul’s saying not to do this, but I sure as heck am not gonna lecture anyone who has done this. I personally work VERY hard to bring my own flavor to the gumbo but let’s keep it real - the primary driver of the most incredible year I’m likely to ever have as an investor - was made by following this magnificent herd. Also, what about people who are too busy to do the work? My thinking was entirely independent on Nutanix and Arista and in all seriousness, I almost wiped out an entire account put aside for my daughter. Crowdstrike, bless their name, tripled for me in that one and it’s still not back to where it was.
You claim most of the board was “extremely late” - what does this even mean? I thought we’re in the early innings of edge networks and the switch to the cloud. You’re scolding folks for discovering a pick - in the place they come to discover picks? I think you’ve said Fastly can be a 250B stock. It’s “extremely late” to get in around 10 billion?
You fail to present the case for selling. This is critical to your argument. If there is a strong case to be made - decelerating growth rates, questions about the reason usage has declined, management raising guidance despite having limited visibility into revenue, a weak press release, large insider sales, etc. - than this refutes your argument entirely.
Your argument implies people sold merely because Saul sold, not because they agree with the logic of the call. What data did you use to differentiate between the thoughtful sellers and mindless herd followers? Do you have a spreadsheet ranking the rationale from each post?
This board has a clearly-stated methodology that virtually guarantees many people will draw the same conclusions. GauchoChris has written eloquently about times he’s reached the same conclusions as Saul, after studying the method. If this was a value investing board and all decided a stock like Zoom was too pricey, after running up 600%, many folks would sell. Your critique is like scolding fighters at a dojo for learning the style taught by the sensei. All that matters, really, is if the method works.
For the moment, exiting Fastly before earnings was not only logical, and in accordance with the board’s methodology - but it was the right call. So you’re not only scolding people for lacking independent thought, your scolding people who, as of this writing, made the right call! My thoughts are if the ER goes well there will be plenty of time to get back in. If not, I didn’t want to ride down to the 60’s or worse. Did I sell because Saul sold or because I agreed with his logic behind making the sale? Even I’m not certain I can answer that. I’d have to enter a multiverse and see what I would have done if Saul held.
Lastly, your post also fails to mention that we are blessed with an abundance of exceptional stocks to choose from, meaning swapping, say, a Fastly for Peloton/Docusign etc., etc. is entirely reasonable. So this is another reason more investors than usual might exit a pick and not be merely guilty of blindly following the herd. At the moment I have zero doubts about PTON/DOCU dominance.
Bottom line - message boards work best when we stick to strictly analyzing the logic and facts of each call and refrain from questioning unverifiable things, like the rationale or motives behind other investors’ picks or posts. And refrain from lecturing others on the same points the Fool at large makes 100s of times a day. For example, I suspect you are irritated by the fact that Fastly has tanked from 120’s to the 70’s.But I would never say this because 1) no one cares and 2) I can’t possibly know how you feel. I only know this - you invest for a living- and many of us do not. So to lecture others about not living up to your standards of indy thought is bad form.
This board can only work if we stick to analyzing specific companies and the specific data points behind the bull/bear cases. And hold off on grand lectures, scoldings and philosophical musings.
I would have loved to ignore this most unfortunate post, and I’m sure we’re gonna get an ALL CAPS whomping any second from Il Padrino, but if I’m looking for someone to express disappointment I have no shortage of family members, and a devoted spouse of 30 years, I can turn to.
Ultimately there are two kinds of posts here - ones that make Saul MORE likely to enjoy sharing his incredible wisdom and ones that make him more likely to shut it down. Sadly yours - and no doubt now mine - fall into the latter category.
Fool On,
Broadway Dan
