little sauls...

I don’t know if it was Saul’s intentions to create the type of board that it actually has turned into.
I mean, it seems as if this board is running a parallel/counter newsletter service taking aim at recommendations made in premium services, see westport. And then making its own.

Saul’s investment style is clearly opposite to what the motley fool is all about. His style is more short time oriented. And that’s fine.
In fact, it’s not Saul I’m taking aim at, but at all of his “followers”.
It’s seems as if Saul has become this kind of divine entity that does no wrong.
Again, I have nothing against Saul and surely nothing against any of the people contributing to the board. Neil is one of my favourite (thank you for the boadkeep, by the way.

A good part of the posts come from people who apparently has reached such a level of confidence that entitles them to “recommend” stocks. Some have even started to write pages a la TMF1000.
Granted, some of the posts are interesting and even formative. But maybe, just maybe, we should re-evaluate our limits and level of competence.

Sure, we here to learn from one another, but let’s not forget that overconfidence is not good.

And finally, quoting the always excellent Morgan Housel:
"How to think about pundits: People who profess to have knowledge about things that can’t be known. Combines the skill of an actor, the ridiculousness of a comedian, the believability of priests, and the credibility of politicians.

and also:
How to think about patience and investing: A guy pulls grapes off a vine, smashes them in his hand, drains the juice into a cup and says, “This wine is awful.” Someone tells him he needs to let it age first. An hour later he says it still doesn’t taste like wine, and gives it to his friend. His friend stores it in his basement for 20 years and has the best wine you’ve ever tasted.

Respectfully

Franco

Ps
I’m glad this is not twitter

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Hi Franco, let me respond to some of your points:

Saul’s investment style is clearly opposite to what the motley fool is all about. His style is more short time oriented. And that’s fine.

My style is certainly not the opposite of MF’s. That would be a short term trader. I have stated often that I NEVER buy for a short term trade, but always with the intention of a long term hold. It’s just that it doesn’t always work out and I admit my mistakes, and get out. My average holding period is probably between 6 months and three years.

It’s seems as if Saul has become this kind of divine entity that does no wrong.

On the contrary, I frequently refer to my mistakes and admit them when they happen (most recently SZYM, but if you go back there were plenty of others). People often disagree with me vehemently (see the recent discussion of PFIE). I really, REALLY don’t see where you got this idea.

A good part of the posts come from people who apparently has reached such a level of confidence that entitles them to “recommend” stocks. Some have even started to write pages a la TMF1000.
Granted, some of the posts are interesting and even formative. But maybe, just maybe, we should re-evaluate our limits and level of competence.

You MUST be kidding! Do you really think that no one has the right to make a recommendation except people on the MF staff? No one else is smart enough? Is that because all the MF picks go up? (RB recently pointed out that 40% of their posts were down from their recommendation price). We’ve had really excellent “pages a la TMF1000” posted on this board which have been incredibly helpful. Is it your contention that no one else has a right to write them? I mean, who are you kidding? Motley Fool has these boards to encourage discussion, not to reinforce their picks. Everyone has the right to a reasoned disagreement (and you have the right to disagree with me). And everyone has the right to make their own picks. That’s what this board is all about!!!

Saul

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On, I missed one:

it seems as if this board is running a parallel/counter newsletter service taking aim at recommendations made in premium services

Out of my current 15 positions, which I post regularly, the top (biggest) seven positions, making up over 70% of my holdings, are ALL motley fool recommendations from one service or another. That’s BOFI, SWKS, CELG, SKX, UBNT, AIOCF and WAB. Does that sound like the board is here to take aim at recommendations made in premium newsletters? Have you actually read many posts on this board? Or have you just dropped in, read a few, and decided to post your take based on a few posts?

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And finally, Franco, since at least 5, of the 20 or so November “MF Posts of the Day,” were selected from this board, out of all the hundreds and hundreds of MF boards scattered around all the services, I assume the Motley Fool Central thinks a lot more of the posts by the “overconfident” members of the board than you do. Just saying…

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Hi Franco,

Nobody here is running a parallel newsletter. We share what we read/research. I post a lot, especially about stocks I research on my own time. I always preface them with warnings and I by no means want anyone to copy what I do or blindly follow my buys.

I actually post for very selfish reasons: I want the smart people on this board to blow holes into my thesis and rationale for buying or not buying a stock!

Finally, at least some of the posts here must be good. Some of those page posts by folks here make it to the “TMF Post of the Day”, so clearly some others also find them valuable.

Anirban

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I don’t know if it was Saul’s intentions to create the type of board that it actually has turned into.
I mean, it seems as if this board is running a parallel/counter newsletter service taking aim at recommendations made in premium services, see westport. And then making its own.

Lol, did you get burnt by westport Franco. As you mature as an investor you will realize that just because someone says something bad about a company you own that it is not a personal attack on you. Sometimes it can help you better judge the company you are invested in. Also this board is not a parallel newsletter. It actually is what the Fool used to be, before they had paid services. Investors joining together to provide information and ideas to each other. If that makes you uncomfortable you have every right not to follow this board or to even read it.

Respectfully,
Andy

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Saul, Andy, Anirban,
I do read a lot of the posts on this board, and I did say that some of the posts are interesting and formative.

I did not say that you shoud keep it quiet. I do think, though, that one should be more humble when talking about something that doesn’t belong to his/her domain. And that as a general rule, not only stocks.
We all try to impress our peers. But I’m not into it.

To me long term deoes not mean 6 months to three years. But then again that’s just me.

I don’t think I was rude or offensive to anyone. If I was I apologize.
I just wanted to point out that I find it odd that someone would start a board that goes under his/her name.
TMF1000 does not have a dedicated board. David and Tom Gardner don’t have a dedicated board.

Ps
Wprt is a sucker for me (small position)and I don’t feel offended.
Does that mean that it will remain a sucker for the next 20 years? Maybe
or maybe not.

Gracefully

Franco

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I do think, though, that one should be more humble when talking about something that doesn’t belong to his/her domain. . . . I just wanted to point out that I find it odd that someone would start a board that goes under his/her name.

TMF1000 does not have a dedicated board. David and Tom Gardner don’t have a dedicated board.

Gee, a guy spends a whole lot of time trying to help other people in an important area, for free, and that is your takeaway?

Maybe Saul just wants a tiny bit of recognition for all the work he has done to create a very good forum for discussion of investments – you know, in lieu of compensation. More likely, though, he wants people to be able to find the board and understand what it is about.

After all, what exactly do you think he should call his board? “Fred’s Investing Board?” “Analysis of Investments by People Who Do Not Know Anything?” “Green Light Specials?” I am not sure what would make you happy here.

More substantively, I too have worried that there will be people who act like acolytes – who sort of join a “Cult of Saul” and do not think independently. Saul and others on this board do a lot to discourage this, but it will happen. I guess IMO (i) there are worse cults to join, and (ii) such people will usually end up in one de fact cult or another (so to speak), and ultimately there is a limit to how far other people should bend and change to protect them.

There is also always a risk of group-think, but IMO Saul and a set of very strong posters on this board do a great job of avoiding that.

Anyway, you are entitled to your opinion, but I hate to leave it uncontested, because Saul deserves much better than that.

Rich

CED

and, BTW, your post title, "little sauls,"is quite intentionally demeaning and anything but “graceful” – it is, sadly, troll-like, and sends a signal about your true intentions.

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I just wanted to point out that I find it odd that someone would start a board that goes under his/her name.

Or maybe Saul is into more practical and less flair.

I remember when I first got on the internet and went to set up my email. Never given it any thought previously I came up with the cute (or so I thought) BoredinOblando@… (Get it Oblando/Orlando :<) well it took me about a minute after I chose that to realize that it may not be the ideal email address to give out for business related matters.

So long story short ever since when it comes to user names and such I don’t try for cute. (RJF are my initials)

Back to Saul, given he started the board with the intention of discussing investing the name sounds pretty practical to me.

He does get an F for creativity however, except when it comes to his stock selection. :<)

B

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To me long term does not mean 6 months to three years.

Saul said that this is his average holding time. He keeps some for less time and some for a longer time period. John Maynard Keynes famously said “When events change, I change my mind. What do you do?” I am not against long-term investing. In fact my preferred holding period is 10 plus years, but when things change for the negative (the business shows signs of deterioration, management shows signs of bad judgment, a competitor with a better business model shows up, etc), why would you hold on to a company where you now believe the reward is outweighed by the risk? I am not saying Tom Gardner’s rule of not selling for 5 years is terrible (it’s good for a more emotional investor who may be swayed by short-term thinking), but if you find that a stock no longer makes sense (risk is greater than reward) then why hold on? Westport is obviously a great example where it would have paid to change your mind based on the performance of the business.

I just wanted to point out that I find it odd that someone would start a board that goes under his/her name. TMF1000 does not have a dedicated board. David and Tom Gardner don’t have a dedicated board.

Tom and David have several dedicated boards that discuss their investment approach. You just have to pay to read them. Tom charges $7,500 for a one year subscription to read his boards like “Fool One Everlasting Portfolio”. The everlasting portfolio is made up of Tom’s holdings. I find it odd that someone who wants to help the little guy invest better would charge so much money that most younger, lower to middle class people cannot afford to subscribe. And you find it odd that Saul (who does not make any money from the time he spends helping people on the board) has a board under his name? Seriously?

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wow wow wow.

See this is what I’m talking about. Relax everyone. You can follow whatever advise from whoever.
Don’t care. I’m not staging a coup here.

And wouter28
Tom and David run premium services, you’re not obliged to subscribe to, not boards within a premium service.
The Everlasting portfolio is crazy expensive, stock advisors or rule breakers are not
If you have something to say about a stock, why don’t you use the pertinent board?

F

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wow wow wow.

See this is what I’m talking about. Relax everyone. You can follow whatever advise from whoever.
Don’t care. I’m not staging a coup here.

No need to get emotional. We were just trying to point out some things in your posts that we had different opinions on. After all, the Motley Fool boards are about sharing different ideas and opinions. We won’t always agree, but that’s OK. One of our biggest biases is confirmation bias, which is why great investors like Soros and Berkowitz try to kill their investments (through understanding the bear case). Occasionally they are successful and sell and this may seem like a short-term move, but it is very logical. I would welcome open dialogue where we can share our thoughts and disagree with others. No need to take it personally and get emotional.

If you have something to say about a stock, why don’t you use the pertinent board?

Because if you post stock ideas here, you will have a smart audience to read them and you can read counterpoints that you may not have considered. Generally, posting under the pertinent stock board will more likely lead to confirmation bias. Typically the pertinent stock boards are read by people who own or are interested in the stock and the majority of the readers will be bullish and agree with you. You find diverse readers on this board who have varying opinions, which leads to good discussion and better understanding the bear case. For example when Saul posted bearish comments on the RB Westport board, he was met with negative reactions that led him to stop posting there. I’d rather take the Soros and Berkowitz approach and hear the bear case. If this leads to counterpoints that I have not considered, then I have gotten a lot more value than I would have gotten from the pertinent stock boards.

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I might note that I am very glad the stock discussions occur on boards like this because otherwise I would be unlikely to hear about them. Following the XXX board is a perfectly reasonable thing to do once one becomes aware that XXX is interesting, but how does one hear about it in the first place. By talking about it hear, we all get exposed to dozens of idea, only a few of which are likely to be of lasting interest to any one person, but collectively we get lots of ideas.

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I did not say that you shoud keep it quiet. I do think, though, that one should be more humble when talking about something that doesn’t belong to his/her domain. And that as a general rule, not only stocks.

Franco,
It surprises me that someone would come into another person’s house, eat the food, drink the wine and then judge them. How do you stay so Humble as to judge other people.

I don’t think I was rude or offensive to anyone. If I was I apologize.
I just wanted to point out that I find it odd that someone would start a board that goes under his/her name.
TMF1000 does not have a dedicated board. David and Tom Gardner don’t have a dedicated board.

Now we get to the heart of your problem. Of course you were rude and offensive just as you intended. By starting this post “little saul”, telling people that they were not humble enough and now finally coming up with the real reason you are mad at this board. It’s all because Saul used his own name for his board. LOL. If that really bothers you maybe we could get a board with your name on it. Would that make you feel better?

As Far as Tome having his own board. Yes he does. I am surprised that with all of your knowledge that you wouldn’t know this.

Andy

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I have a couple of points I’d like to make.

I mean, it seems as if this board is running a parallel/counter newsletter service taking aim at recommendations made in premium services, see westport. And then making its own.

I believe one of the original reasons this board was created was because Saul was posting about PSIX on the WPRT board. He suggested PSIX as an alternative to WPRT while saying WPRT was not a good investment. People got tired of hearing about PSIX, and combined with requests on other boards, this board was created for Saul and others to talk about any investment in one place.

This seems perfectly reasonable, as others have said this is what TMF was originally before paid services.

Saul’s investment style is clearly opposite to what the motley fool is all about. His style is more short time oriented. And that’s fine.

The exact opposite to TMF would be more like day traders, or people selling in and out of stocks with very short holding periods, not caring about management or how the business is doing.

If you think about it more deeply, Saul’s style is very much aligned with TMF. He looks for great growing businesses, great management, and always invests with the original time frame of years.

Why does he sell? In some cases he believes that the business/investing thesis has changed. In other cases he finds a better stock to invest in and is forced to sell his worst ideas. Do either of these reasons run contrary to TMF, specifically SA and RB? No. In fact, they are complimentary. If one deems that the investing thesis is broken then one should absolutely sell. The difference between Saul and TMF is that Saul’s threshold to sell is much lower then TMF, or said another way, TMF’s threshold to sell, or even place a stock on hold, is very high often resulting in just holding most companies through thick and thin. As for investing in better ideas, well that just makes sense mathematically. If you think investment A will earn 30% over the next few years compared to investment B that will only earn 10% over the same time frame what would be the better investment? Of course it would be investment A, but in Saul’s case in order for him to invest in A he has to sell something as he’s fully invested, and in this case since B is is worst idea he sells B. SA and RB are never forced to sell anything due to capital reasons. Therefore even if Saul just sold for capital/allocation reasons, it would look like his investment time frame was much lower then SA and RB.

Now think about this, what are 2 big complaints about TMF paid services?

  1. They never sell, which in some cases like WPRT result in some huge loses. In some cases, and in hindsight, there were sometimes enough business/thesis changes that could have warranted a hold or sell decision. I am down 88% on my own WPRT position for reference.

  2. There are so many picks, how do we decide on the best ones? As investors with limited capital, where should I put my money?

I think Saul, this board, and the regular posters are simply trying to address these issues, and I think they’re doing a good job.

Does that make TMF services obsolete? Of course not! Like Saul has said, the vast majority of his portfolio is TMF picks. My own portfolio is 97.4% SA and RB picks. I would never give up SA and RB.

It’s seems as if Saul has become this kind of divine entity that does no wrong

Clearly Saul can do wrong and does make mistakes (SZYM). I expect him to make mistakes in the future, he expects himself to make mistakes in the future. I expect myself to make plenty of mistakes.

But that said, I do agree with you to a certain extent. It’s so important for an investor to be able to critically think about an investment for themselves. The recommendations of SA and RB are just that, recommendations, and I think where you see a lot of backlash is with people who blindly follow the services. I worry that there are people that are blindly following Saul’s picks too.

A good part of the posts come from people who apparently has reached such a level of confidence that entitles them to “recommend” stocks. Some have even started to write pages a la TMF1000.
Granted, some of the posts are interesting and even formative. But maybe, just maybe, we should re-evaluate our limits and level of competence.

I think you are misinterpreting the page posts. Like others have said, these are for scrutinization, not to be taken as a must buy Saul pick. Again critically thinking about investments is so important.

Additionally, how do you think 1000 got his start? Was he always a TMF’er? No. He started on the boards as 1000 and developed his thought process over years with page posts. He was eventually promoted to TMF status, partially due to his fantastic work on the boards as a member! Having others aspire to TMF1000 levels of contribution is a fantastic and worthy goal. I applaud the page posts. Will there be mistakes? Surely. But we are free to disagree with any investment decision, or point out errors we see in various posts (like the page posts).

And lastly

I just wanted to point out that I find it odd that someone would start a board that goes under his/her name.
TMF1000 does not have a dedicated board. David and Tom Gardner don’t have a dedicated board.

Tom and David run premium services, you’re not obliged to subscribe to, not boards within a premium service.
The Everlasting portfolio is crazy expensive, stock advisors or rule breakers are not
If you have something to say about a stock, why don’t you use the pertinent board?

Firstly, you are not obligated to subscribe to any board.

You are technically correct, Tom (TMF1000) doesn’t have a board named after him. But his “home” is the Cloning (D-E, 5-6) board. It is his board for all intents and purposes. In it you can see posts from 1000 that are before he got his TMF moniker. Tom’s board has been running since 2000.

Or perhaps you’ve heard of Pencils2 (David K), who was also recently promoted to TMFPencils. David is another fantastic poster who offers his take on TMF picks, and regularly does huge posts as to the pros and cons of specific investments, both TMF official picks and his own picks. His own personal board is Pencil’s Palace and has been running since 2006. It has over 7k posts.

Finally, I think you will find that most regular posters here post their “big posts” on both boards, both Saul’s and the TMF dedicated paid service boards. UBNT, BOFI, and AMBA are ones that I regularly follow, and all important posts are always posted in both spots. That said I would expect some posters not to have all subscriptions, which would limit their posting abilities. For example AIOCF is a Canadian pick, which I would expect almost none of the posters to have subscribed to.

Final final thoughts: I’m sorry this post has turned out to be so long. There was just so much I disagreed with Franco. You are of course entitled to your opinions, but I think it you thought about it more deeply you wouldn’t have nearly as many objections.

However I think you make an extremely important point as well. It is undeniably important that when making any investment decision the investor doesn’t just blindly pick a company, no matter who suggests it. And I think a board like Saul’s will inevitably attract some people who are like that. So there is some major risk that some investors face here. That risk is mitigated a bit when those types of investors follow a service like SA, RB, Supernova, or One. It’s less risky because you have dedicated teams of analysts, trained by the Fool no less, regularly going over all pick’s data and reports. Then you have David and Tom G, who have incredible track records, overseeing all the picks. There is accountability, track results, and a large group of talented employees helping investors make better decisions. You don’t necessarily get all of that here. In my opinion this board is for the more seasoned investor.

Again, sorry for the length. This post turned into a big wall of text :slight_smile:

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Maybe it’s time to drop this thread, and quit posting on it, so that it doesn’t take over more of the board than it’s worth.

Saul

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Typically the pertinent stock boards are read by people who own or are interested in the stock and the majority of the readers will be bullish and agree with you.

You forgot to add, on the free boards at least, if you post on the pertinent stock boards, as likely as not, you’ll be speaking to yourself.

B (Who best I know doesn’t own anything Saul owns)

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“Maybe it’s time to drop this thread, and quit posting on it, so that it doesn’t take over more of the board than it’s worth.”

Saul

Agree

Franco

Motley Fool has these boards to encourage discussion, not to reinforce their picks. Everyone has the right to a reasoned disagreement (and you have the right to disagree with me). And everyone has the right to make their own picks. That’s what this board is all about!!!

Hi Saul and Franco,

Sorry I am late to this discussion but I’ll chip in anyway.

I read Franco’s comments and thought, “This is quite a different perspective than mine (a contributor to Saul’s board), and it’s a negative read. It is so different that I don’t recognize the board and participation that he perspects on,(you know what I mean).”

Be that as it may, here’s my perspective:
I participate here as an equal amongst guys that normally wouldn’t talk to me about investing. I have learned so much and been accepted as an equal that maybe, if I suggested a stock, someone somewhere would have thought that I must have, “…reached a level of confidence”, etc etc.

I’m going to be nice about this but that is quite a distortion of what goes on here. I don’t know where to start to rearrange Franko’s perspective so I won’t. But simply stated, I come here for the transparency, camaraderie, knowledge, assistance and hope that I can improve my investing. I write, I read, I try really hard to contribute and hopefully make money as well as hopefully help others to make money, even if it means I may have to expose what I don’t know.

That’s what it is all about…for me. I think the prism that Franco is looking through is one where the investor reads someone’s opinion and rushes to the phone and calls his broker…he got a hot tip and obviously it wasn’t a winner.
Geez
Mykie

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Hi Franco,

My ears were burning so I thought I would come over and add a few thoughts.

running a parallel/counter newsletter service taking aim at recommendations made in premium services,

I could see where this would be a concern if I understand you correctly. But I don’t think they have discussed a stock and said its from this newsletter or that one. And even if a subscriber were to bring a premium service idea to this board to discuss, as long as they didn’t say, its from Hidden Gems or Stock Advisor etc, it is Ok. If it weren’t OK we wouldn’t have free boards. And I see some stocks being discussed that I have never heard of before. On request, I have copied page posts about premiums recommendations to the free boards - I just delete any mention of the newsletters and that is OK.

As for the page posts. I have many times in the past, encouraged people to write them and use the format I started or use one that they liked. I even encourage people to copy and paste my page posts and just add information to them. So if 1000 people started to make page posts or copy my page posts to the board and just add information they found that would be great, it would help me. I encourage people to use the format that I use, simply because it is simple to use. I have seen much better formats, but I have never mastered the straight beautiful columns that others use so well. So I kinda stuck with my primitive time-line type format. But I gotten used to it and I am not sure I can grab the information in the columned posts as well now that I used to the time-line format.

The Motley Fool has always encourage the development of boards for stock discussions and this one looks like a really good one. It shouldn’t take away from the value of the newsletters, but if in time, more people came here than subscribed, then the fault would be on the shoulders of people, like me, that didn’t provide the content that offered a value greater than a subscription price. Our goal, as TMF employees, is to keep our subscribers ahead of the learning curve. It is a challenge, but one I like.

Franco, please don’t think I am ganging up on you. I am not. I understand your concerns, but I think this board has developed into something really nice. I have tried forever to create a board where people worked together on the premium boards, but so far have failed to accomplish it. I will of course keep trying. I may read all the posts on this board to see if I can duplicate Saul’s community making process. And don’t take what might sound like angry replies to heart either, they probably weren’t intended to sound angry. I have often through written word to my Phoenix team that was taken wrong or not the way I meant them. But if I am in a hurry to write an email, I often seem a bit curt. I always regret and try to make amends. Writing doesn’t come naturally to me.

And if this board comes up with a great idea that isn’t in the TMF universe and I like the pick, I will be writing pages posts about it on the premium boards as well as here. So Saul’s board could help the premium newsletters and me too. I just recently been reminded about this board and decided, with my new free time, to check it out.

As an example - AMBA is a premium recommendation. I didn’t leak that fact against TMF rules. That fact is advertised in every article that mentions AMBA. It is public knowledge. I can’t say which newsletter that would be wrong.

Each article that discusses AMBA will quote at the bottom that TMF owns it. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ambarella and Apple. It is part of their disclosure policy.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/12/05/ambarella-i…

AMBA has been owned by TMF for quite some time now. The newsletters don’t have a copyright on Ambarella. And if this board could provide research, deeper than what I try to provide or add facts that I missed - I will add them to my future reports. If I do that, I will try to add content to this board of equal or greater value. My way of paying back.

I for one would be proud to be labeled a “little Saul”. So to other board members, I wouldn’t take that as an insult from Franco. To build a board from scratch that has over 5000 posts and a very active community is an amazing accomplishment. I haven’t been able to accomplish it on my own, so the term “little” would certainly apply to me. But I never give up, so I will keep trying.

I am sure TMF considers the board a valuable asset. If the free boards were value sapping to TMF they would eliminate them. But they provide much value, not just in collective research and new ideas, but also they provide a source for potential premium customers.

I just hope we can all, make a resolution for 2015, to just get along and forget any perceived grievances on either side. I don’t think it was intentional on either side.

I am going to start reading the board here and hopefully I can add some content. I found a quicker way to do my page posts which gives me tons of extra time. So I have pretty much dedicated my free time to finding some new stocks for me to buy. My cash is building up and I am not finding any real bargains within my portfolio, so I need to look outside of my portfolio.

The Foolish Collective and the Cloning board were started from people that subscribed to TMF seminars based on one of the newsletters. The Foolish Collective became an amazing place to discuss stock ideas and it is still a great place to discuss stocks. I think this board has captured the same spirit. I may have found a new fun place to hang out on the days I am all caught up on my page posts. hehehe

My wish that everyone in the TMF community, whether a subscriber of a premium service or happy non-premium-board resident, to keep sharing information about their favorite stocks and to become successful investors. Sharing research is a fun way to watch the market. No one person can watch enough stocks to generate the kind of returns that can be generated when many people are pitching ideas and building numerous theses on various stocks.

So successful investing to all!

tom e

thomas engle
TMF Coverage Fool

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