Inflation breaking in the lumber market?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lumber-prices-slump-with-rising…
Lumber Prices Slump With Rising Interest Rates
Prices shed more than 50% since March, when the Fed began raising borrowing costs to slow inflation

Wood prices were a leading indicator of the supply-chain problems and inflation that followed pandemic lockdowns. Prices shot up in the summer of 2020 as cooped-up Americans remodeled en masse and demand for suburban houses soared. By last spring, lumber cost more than twice the prepandemic high. Now, two-by-four prices are flashing caution.

Lumber futures for July delivery ended Friday at $695.10 per thousand board feet, down 52% from a high in early March. On-the-spot wood prices have plunged, too. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks cash sales, fell about 12% last week to end at $794. That is down from $1,334 in March, just before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.

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This morning in the donut shop with the guys who have position in the trades and real estate market, a major lumber company went under. I am not familiar with the company so this went in one ear and out the other. It was shocking to my friends. Inflation and unable to hire people.

I don’t understand the jubilation about lumber dropping from insanely high prices to just high prices. In 2019, lumber traded between 305 and 416. So trading at 695 right now means a 3-year “inflation” of 93%. That’s not considered “low inflation” using any definition.

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