Inflation, by all different measures, CPI, PPI, PCE, wage growth, continues its trend down and back to typical levels - chart below. CPI and PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure) inflation are converging to very similar readings.
The Treasury market, which has a forward looking expectation of inflation called breakeven rates, expects 2.23% inflation over the next 5 years.
Over the last 6 months using the latest available CPI inflation data (Apr to Oct 2023), inflation was 3.13%.
| CPI Inflation Index Apr 2023 | 302.918 |
| CPI Inflation Index Oct 2023 | 307.619 |
| 6 month change % | 1.55% |
| 6 month change annualized % | 3.13% |
