Inflation, July 2026

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July 
after falling 0.4 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the 
all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.


The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending July after rising 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending 
June. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the year, following a 2.6-percent increase over 
the 12 months ending June. The energy index increased 14.7 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index 
increased 3.0 percent over the last year.

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Here is the Atlanta Fed’s Inflation Nowcast

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The New York Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) model measures inflation’s persistence in the seventeen core sectors of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The PCE index won’t be updated for a couple of weeks.

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The WSJ spins this as " Tame increase gives Fed cover to hold interest rates steady."
Wendy

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I’m thinking Michael Saylor has been right all along to describe inflation as n dimensional vector impacting asset classes differently rather than a singular number. The cherry picking of CPI data is meant to mask its destructive impact rather than actually reveal it. Part of what I think gets people frustrated with the current unaffordability is the sheer lack of honesty about how the data is reported. If they better understood it, they may stop supporting promises to print more to provide more to simply make the problem that much worse.

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That’s a nice sounding model

The rest of us have our own model.

TGITDH

The Gas Is Too Dam High

But the militant greens are ecstatic about the joint US-Iran-Houthi partnership to block the global fossil fuel supply.

Shifting Oil Supply Lines
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Bitcoin for example is hyperinflating.

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I think he has correctly identified the problem but not sure if bitcoin is the solution. My approach is to own shares in businesses that can grow faster than the rate of inflation or can adjust prices accordingly.

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I withhold any opinion I might have until the revised numbers come out the following month.

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