Monkey’s banana pile is disconcertedly diminished after INFN’s recent poop job. But will the future replenish the stash or rot the rest of what little remains?
The Fork in the Jungle
Option 1) Those who invested in INFN were wrong. About the best technology winning. About management’s enthusiasm for the company translating to revenue. About competition not standing a chance. About the demand. About the timing of the demand. About pretty much everything. Maybe Infinera was the worst of all possibilities: a banana tree mirage, full of plump juicy golden fruit that was somehow always in the next jungle.
Option 2) Patience. We were not wrong, but patience, lots and lots of patience (but at what opportunity cost, though?) will be required and the market likes to poop and pee first and be patient never. So this option claims that though competition might have nibbled at profits more than we’d like, the technology is best in class, the demand will (eventually) be there, the R & D continues, and there’s a huge market just waiting to take Infinera’s money. Are they gonna take it? Are they Monkey enough to take it?
Option 3) Infinera now officially belongs in the “too hard to tell pile” so if you like gambling, place your bets. Remember, rational thinking and deep scouting reports and all kinds of intelligence got us here to disastrous investing results. Who can honestly tell what the future will hold? Especially because Monkey does believe Infinera has the best technology, other than, apparently, in the yellow submarine business. So if that alone isn’t a guarantee of success, then what other possible insights could help us invest with confidence? This is now a gamble in the dark within a cut-throat business environment. Yikes.
Monkey usually favors option 2 (patience)––true for SKX and SWKS, for example–– which is how fortunes are made. Buy when others are panicking, and then be patient. But in this instance, the other two options appear quite viable, too.
Which option tingles your tummy and why?
A starving, sad Monkey
p.s. If option 2, then when the selling stops, next question will be how long do we wait? (Though, of course, the Suits themselves have no idea, so good luck to us, right?) Because then the call options will start looking intriguing if we can surmise with some degree of accuracy how long the flaccid sales will take to erect themselves. Sorry. Not sorry.