Investing lessons from the Game of Thrones

Game of Thrones is arguably the best TV show ever made. Breaking Bad comes a close second, imo. I read all the George R. R. Martin books before I watched the series on HBO. This is my default M.O. for any blockbuster show that is based on a book. I like reading and understanding the detail behind the characters, the deeper context of their lives and the undertones of the plot lines before I watch a one hour episode about the same story.

Today, Aug 21st at 9 p.m. E.T., HBO releases House of The Dragon, the story of the tumultous and violent Targaryen dynasty, set about 200 years before the hit show that wrapped up in May 2019. We, GOT fans, could not be more excited.

As I was running along the beach this morning, I started thinking of the many lessons one could glean from an epic, multi-generation, geo-political saga like the Game of Thrones. Btw, I once did a similar exercise using the Godfather movie series…will write about that in a seperate post.

P.S. In case you have not watched GOT, I will keep the spoilers vague and to the minimum.

Everyone has an agenda and speaks their book

This is so true of all the talking-heads we hear on pick-your-favorite-fin-media publication/TV channel/social media channel/newsletter. The Lannisters, the Boltons, the Tyrells and the Greyjoys were some of the families vying to grab a larger share of Westeros. Every move they made, every alliance they struck, every word they spoke was in pursuit of this singular goal….to rule. Investors need to be aware of any advice, recommendation or stock tip they receive from such “trusted sources”. More than likely, the source has an agenda behind their recommendation.

Traders will trade in almost any market condition

Littlefinger (Petyr Baelish) was the quintessential “trader” in the show. The man was so agile, depending on the situation, that he could put a professional contortionist to shame. He first aligned with the Baratheons, then with the Starks, then with the Lannisters, then with the Arryns, then back with the Starks and onto the Lannisters and so on. You just never knew which side he stood on and what his true motives were.

Meme trading is here to stay - wild and unpredictable

The Dothraki, a daring, no-holds-barred race of nomads in Essos, knew only three things in life:

  1. Winning every raid, every battle…there was no other option
  2. Horses were important to their survival…transportation, food and war
  3. Enjoy life to the fullest…sex, alcohol and spoils of war

Meme trading is much-maligned and belittled. Every time we hear about either a success story (heard about the kid who made $110M on BBBY -5.96%? ?) or a failure on the other end of the spectrum, the traditionalist among us (me included, btw) shake our heads and start tsking with an “I told you so…”. We need to get better at realizing that meme trading is here to stay and actually preferred by a growing class of young investors. If we do not want to participate, that’s fine. But let’s not presume to know what is best for those young 'uns.

Have a plan and stick to it

Success comes in all shapes and sizes and no one embodies this better than Arya Stark, my favorite character in the show. That little peanut of a girl persevered through the entire tale to become one of the deadliest assassins Westeros has ever seen, quietly taking revenge on the worst of her enemies. Her kill-list was a daily prayer that kept her focused, determined and resilient in the face of immense odds.

Successful investors find a formula that works for them and they stick to this playbook, including a set of rules within. They stay focused, keep reading and learning and more importantly, they are flexible and nimble through any adverse situation.

Never fall in love with a stock and refuse to give it up

Robb Stark was racking up victory after victory until he was taken down at the Red Wedding by the wily Freys. His downfall was precipitated when he broke off his engagement with one of the Frey daughters because he fell deeply in love with another woman.

As investors, it is sometimes hard for us to give up on our favorite stocks, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that the business is faltering and the share price is not going to recover any time soon. 2022 has been especially hard in this regard as many of our growth stocks have experiences 50-75% drops due to the challenging macro environments and pressure on valuations.

Do your own due diligence

While trying to investigate the white-walkers north of the wall, Jon Snow is captured by the Wildlings and taken to their King. Contrary to popular belief, by all people south of the wall, he is surprised to find that the Wildlings are just regular folks trying to survive, feed their families and raise their kids. He makes new, enduring friendships amongst them, including his first love. He uses this knowledge to create new alliances with the wildlings during several key battles that help turn the tide against the enemy.

Our lives are busy. We always have an excuse to not do our own research on a stock tip or idea that we read about or hear from a friend. We subscribe to investing newsletters and research services to save time. We put money into companies without truly understanding the past performance and future prospects of the business. Until we do our own due diligence, we have no one to blame but ourselves if an investment goes south.

History repeats itself

You can open any history book or investing biography to find countless examples of this cliche.

Starting tonight, House of The Dragon will tell us if the Targaryens have learned this lesson over their 300 year rule.

Enjoy the show!

Beachman (Beachman.substack.com)

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…the story of the tumultous and violent Targaryen dynasty, set about 200 years before the hit show that wrapped up in May 2019.

Given the way the quality of GOT crashed when the show runners ran out of books, and started making it up as they went, I don’t know if I would even borrow the DVDs of the new show from the library, for free.

Disney is doing the same thing with it’s franchises: regurgitating over and over and over.

All hail management by analytics. No originality wanted here. Just do what worked once, over, and over, and over, and over…

Steve

Disney is doing the same thing with it’s franchises: regurgitating over and over and over.


I had a discussion with a Broadway producer about the number of re-runs of previous shows as well as mediocre plays with “Big Name” stars. He explained that Broadway is not about art, but about making money. Considering the huge investment required to create a new play and the reasonably large probability that it will bomb, they simply go with the sure thing most of the time. I imagine it’s the same with novels (Robert Ludlum comes to mind - who wrote great books with the same story, feeling like he simply took a word processor and changed all the names and places), movies and TV series.

Jeff

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Game of Thrones is arguably the best TV show ever made. Breaking Bad comes a close second, imo. I read all the George R. R. Martin books before I watched the series on HBO.

I read the first book. Found I had no further interest.

I have a 50-page test for any book that I pick up to read. If it does not capture my interest in the first 50 pages, I close the book and move on.

Too many other good books to read and no sense in wasting my time.

e.g. I cannot read any Tolkien books. And I have tried several times. The man did not understand the word “brief” or the phrase “get to the point”.

I have a 50-page test for any book that I pick up to read


One of the reasons I no longer bother with Steven King books is that it seems like he gets paid by the page (the story is great, but takes a massive amount of reading to get through it.)

Umberto Eco gets mixed reviews on this. I actively search for his books and frequently enjoy them because of their innovative complexity. He is also one of the only authors that I can remember prematurely ceasing reading a couple of books because they were simply too much work to get through.

Jeff

e.g. I cannot read any Tolkien books. And I have tried several times. The man did not understand the word “brief” or the phrase “get to the point”.

Some books don’t need to be brief or to get to the point, they just need to entertain. Some things in life are most enjoyable the longer they linger.

But then, I cannot rear Russian books, Russian authors seem to be paid by the word, which is a shame because people say some are very interesting. I read half of The Brothers Karamazov. The other half I saw in a movie. I’m not sure I got the plot.

The Captain

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But then, I cannot read Russian books, Russian authors seem to be paid by the word, which is a shame because people say some are very interesting. I read half of The Brothers Karamazov. The other half I saw in a movie. I’m not sure I got the plot.

That’s because Russians can’t truly enjoy themselves without at least some suffering included.

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